The return of the NFL is just hours away, as the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs host the Detroit Lions.
TNF odds opened with the Chiefs as 6.5-point favorites with the highest Week 1 odds total at 54.5, and I'm expecting the opening game of the 2023 season to be a shootout.
The Lions made a big investment in Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs, selecting him in the first round of the NFL Draft, and with the passing role in the backfield likely all his, bettors should continue to pile on the Over for his receiving yards — even after sharps moved the NFL odds.
I'm doing it, and I'll explain why Gibbs is my best free NFL pick — and the focus of my Lions vs. Chiefs SGP — in my breakdown of tonight's TNF matchup.
Also: Don't forget to check out our TNF props, as well as our Patrick Mahomes picks spotlight.
Lions vs Chiefs odds
Lions vs Chiefs predictions
The Detroit Lions traded away D’Andre Swift and used a high first-round pick on rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs — and they will most definitely use him tonight.
Gibbs’ biggest contributions come in the passing game where he caught 78% of his passes in college for nearly 10 yards a target. He has elite 4.36 speed and can rip off big gains. He also has a top-tier offensive coordinator in Ben Johnson who will have plenty of opportunities to be creative with the rookie.
The Lions are road underdogs, so the game script is in his favor and Gibbs could be playing against a soft defense late if Kansas City leads big late although I think this Over 29.5 receiving yards gets across the line well before then. The Chiefs allowed 47.4 receiving yards to opposing running backs last year which was a Top-5 mark.
The likely absence of pass rusher Chris Jones is also in Gibbs' favor. With less of a pass rush, the rookie RB might not have to contribute to pass protection as much and be free to release on routes on time.
Sharp bettors already hit this when the markets opened driving the opening line of mid-20s to more than 30 yards at most books. As of Tuesday, there are still some 29.5s available, and that's a bet I'll be making at -120 at BetRivers.
With a possible 60/40 split of the snaps, most of his play coming between the 20s, and the skills to bust big gains, his milestone 125 total yards at +700 at bet365 is something I’m also on at 0.3 units.
This could potentially be the next Alvin Kamara and OC Ben Johnson will know how to use him. Considering he has a reception total of 3.5 and a long reception of 14.5 yards, my Lions vs. Chiefs prediction is Gibbs going Over 29.5 receiving yards — a play I’d bet up to 32.5 or 33.5 yards.
My best bet: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 29.5 receiving yards (-120 at BetRivers)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Lions vs Chiefs same-game parlay
Gibbs Over 30.5 receiving yards
Gibbs Over 39.5 rushing yards
Over 54.5
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If Gibbs sees the Swift role in Johnson's offense, a 5-6 target, double-digit carry night is reasonable. Considering being 6.5-point dogs with a massive total, Detroit could see some soft defenses and consistent gains late.
Both offenses can score and KC could force Detroit to be aggressive if Reid dismantles the 31st-ranked defense from 2022. If Gibbs goes off, these numbers could look like a steal.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Lions vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis
The Chiefs were a 7-point favorite back in August at Pinnacle but hit -6.5 in early September. That number dropped to -4.5 at most sportsbooks on Wednesday when Andy Reid revealed Travis Kelce had hyper-extended his left knee in practice, and he was ruled out hours before kickoff.
The total has seen a little movement which shouldn’t be surprising as it’s the highest total of Week 1 at 54.5. Pinnacle had it at 54 for most of late August and then were the first books to hit 55 which they did Tuesday morning while some other books sat at 54.5.
The key numbers here are 54 and 55 which have a combined 5.47% hit rate since 2015. Fifty-five is the eighth-most frequent final total over that stretch.
Looking at this matchup, one of the more important things for bettors to look at is the success that KC coach Andy Reid has with time to prepare. We know he's 22-3 SU as a coach following a bye in the regular season and 9-3 SU in the playoffs but he's had the summer to game plan vs. the 31st-ranked defense in EPA/play a season ago.
Since Mahomes has come on board as a Week 1 starter, Reid and the Chiefs are 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in season openers, averaging 37.8 points per game. Over his 10 years with the club, Reid is 9-1 SU (7-3 ATS) in openers.
The worrisome part about taking the Chiefs to cover is the backdoor potential of this Detroit offense being led by offensive coordinator Ben Johnson who Pro Football Focuses ranked the best in football.
He’ll likely have more time to execute his game plan as pass rusher Chris Jones is doubtful. His direct impact on this defense should not be understated and was a big reason why the secondary played so well in the second half last year.
The backdoor is real on tonight and a reason I’d rather play points — especially with books sitting at 54.5 while Pinnacle has moved to 55.
The move to 55 might not seem sufficient but 55 is a Top-10 frequent number. The weather looks clear and the mid-70s temps shouldn’t slow the pace and production down compared to some other Week 1 higher-temp games.
It’s a lean on the Over 54.5 for me in the opener as Reid and his young stable of playmakers should shred a poor Lions defense while Johnson has a lot of weapons and Jared Goff might have a lot of time to make decisions with Jones still holding out.
Check out our Lions vs. Chiefs expert picks for more analysis.
Lions vs Chiefs betting trend to know
The Chiefs have scored first in their last seven home games (+7.00 units / 48% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Chiefs.
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Lions vs Chiefs game info
| Location: | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Thursday, September 7, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime, NBC |
| Opening odds: | Chiefs -7, 54 |
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