Lions vs Chiefs TNF Prop Bets: Moore and Mahomes Pick Apart Detroit

Prop bet #1: Glorious debut

One of the most exciting new toys for the Detroit Lions is rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, the No. 12 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Touted as a pint-sized Alvin Kamara, Gibbs was Alabama’s most trusted pass catcher last season with Bryce Young frequently going to him in crunch time.

That ability on passing downs is a big part of why Gibbs was selected as high as he was in April, and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has already alluded to what the Lions' new running back can bring to the passing game.

"Vertical threats don't have to be receivers, so that's one thing to watch out for with Gibbs,” Johnson said earlier this week.

With former first-round pick Jameson Williams suspended, Amon-Ra St. Brown is the only proven explosive pass catcher in the starting lineup, which should clear the way for Gibbs to immediately step into a receiving role.

Jared Goff is coming off arguably his best year in the NFL — finishing fifth in EPA per play among QBs with over 400 plays — and the Kansas City Chiefs were a middle-of-the-pack defense last year (finishing 15th in EPA per play) and won’t have Jones wreaking havoc in the middle on Thursday.

Last season, Detroit finished third in the NFL in EPA per dropback thanks to having one of the best offensive lines in the league and a creative play-caller in Johnson, who seems to know what he has in Gibbs… an offensive weapon who won’t be locked into a classic running back role.

Between Gibbs pass catching prowess, Johnson’s play-calling, and K.C.'s defense missing its star, expect the former Alabama (and Georgia Tech) running back to make a splash.

Jahmyr Gibbs prop: Over 31.5 receiving yards

Prop bet #2: Mahomes mania

The reigning MVP is poised to continue his dominant play against a Lions' defense that couldn’t stop a Sam Darnold-led Carolina Panthers team last campaign.

While Detroit has attempted to revamp coordinator Aaron Glenn’s defense by bringing in a combo of Top 100 draft picks and free agent acquisitions to bolster the back seven, this is still a unit that ranked 31st in EPA per play in 2022.

Expecting rookies and solid veterans like Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley to instantly flip this defense is just bad business. And unfortunately, when a team ranks third worst in EPA per dropback on defense, it isn't going to magically stop the best quarterback in football during Week 1.

Last year, Mahomes finished first in EPA per play among QBs with at least 400 snaps. He also topped 287 passing yards in 11 of 17 games and in the six games he didn’t, he threw less than 38 passes — his season average per game.

With the Lions' offense set to be even better in 2023, and many expecting them to be a contender in the NFC (their NFL win total is 8.5), Mahomes could find himself in a shootout.

Of the 11 games he hit Over 287 passing yards, seven of them were one-score games, and of the four that weren’t, two came against playoff teams. 

There may be questions about who Mahomes will throw to with JuJu Smith-Schuster gone and Travis Kelce and Kadarius Toney listed as limited in practice, but the star field general dealt with that same question last year before K.C. went on to win the Super Bowl. 

With Andy Reid calling plays, Mahomes always seems to find someone open, and GM Brett Veach has been investing in pass catchers.

Patrick Mahomes prop: Over 286.5 passing yards

Prop bet #3: Moore receptions Moore problems

When All-Pro receiver Tyreek Hill was traded to the Miami Dolphins, there were questions about how the Chiefs could possibly replace him and the over 4,500 receiving yards he had with Mahomes.

The easy answer was that Reid and Veach knew they couldn’t replace him, but when you have the best quarterback in the NFL, you don’t necessarily need to have one of the best receivers in the NFL (especially with Kelce as the de facto WR1).

Kansas City finished first in the NFL in EPA per play and EPA per dropback last year while having Smith-Schuster lead its WR in targets (101), receptions (78), and receiving yards (933)

Now with Smith-Schuster off to the New England Patriots, Mahomes will need a new target. Most have suggested that target will be Toney — who has made highlight reel plays in spurts — but he might not even take the field against the Lions.

Enter Skyy Moore, the second-year second-round pick out of Western Michigan. As a rookie Moore had some hiccups with just 22 receptions for 250 yards as he transitioned from the MAC to the NFL.

However, Moore has a similar skill set to Smith-Schuster with his ability to create YAC plays out of the slot. He also brings dynamic route-running ability and 4.41 speed that should help him create separation against a Detroit secondary that’s full of new faces.

While a lot of the fantasy talk this offseason has been about Toney, Justyn Ross, and rookie Rashee Rice, Chiefs beat writers have mentioned Moore as the guy they think will step up.

“I think it’s Skyy Moore,” said Pete Sweeney of Arrowhead Pride when asked on the Around the NFL podcast who would lead Chiefs wide receivers in receptions. “I think Skyy Moore, especially in that slot where he’s really good, is ready to break out. I think he’s going to be that chain mover guy for Patrick Mahomes now that JuJu has moved onto New England."

Skyy Moore prop: Over 45.5 receiving yards