The Dallas Cowboys will host the Detroit Lions at AT&T Stadium on Sunday in a rematch of a controversial December contest that saw Dallas prevail 20-19.
Detroit is 3-1 this year and off a bye, but my Lions vs. Cowboys predictions are betting on its defense to get carved up in Week 6. Here are my best free NFL picks for this NFC showdown on October 13.
Lions vs Cowboys prediction
My best bet
Cowboys team total Over 24.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Dallas Cowboys are coming off a 20-17 win on the road against the Steelers and their stingy defense. The score could easily have been more lopsided than that since they rolled up 445 yards, but went 1-4 in the red zone and had three turnovers on a rain-soaked field.
The Detroit Lions are allowing 20.5 points per game but that doesn't accurately depict how vulnerable their defense is. They were exposed in their previous contest when they surrendered 133 rushing yards, 383 passing yards, and a whopping 38 first downs to the Seahawks.
The Lions have generally been solid against the run but are getting torched through the air, ranking 21st in defensive dropback EPA and 27th in defensive dropback success rate.
Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb thrive against man coverage and the Lions play man at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL and don't have good enough DBs to pull that off. Detroit's starting corners are Carlton Davis III who allows a passer rating of 118.9 when targeted and rookie Terrion Arnold who has a coverage grade of just 48.8, which ranks 69th out of 74 qualifying CBs.
The Cowboys left plenty of points on the field against Pittsburgh, but expect them to finish their drives this week and eclipse their team total.
Lions vs Cowboys same-game parlay
Cowboys team total Over 24.5
CeeDee Lamb Over 82.5 receiving yards
Jared Goff Over 250.5 passing yards
Lamb led the league with 135 receptions for 1,749 receiving yards last year. While his numbers are a bit down this season, he excels in man coverage and is poised for a big day against Detroit's weak secondary. When the Lions came to Dallas last December, Lamb went off for 227 yards on 13 catches.
All quarterbacks perform better when they aren't facing pressure but the difference in Jared Goff's play is extreme. Last season, he had the second-best passing grade (93.4) in the NFL when kept clean in the pocket but ranked just 22nd with a grade of 51.0 under pressure.
Goff should have plenty of time to find his receivers on Sunday with Dallas decimated by injuries at edge rusher. DeMarcus Lawrence, Sam Williams, and Marshawn Kneeland are all on the IR while All-Pro Micah Parsons looks like he'll miss another game with an ankle injury.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Lions vs Cowboys odds
Lions vs Cowboys live odds
Lions vs Cowboys opening odds
- Spread: Detroit -3 (-115) | Dallas +3 (-105)
- Moneyline: Detroit -165 | Dallas +140
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 | Under 52.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Lions vs Cowboys spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money came in on the Lions but as soon as the spread moved to -3.5, action came in on the Cowboys shifting the line back to the key number of 3.
- At 52, this is tied for the highest O/U of Week 6. It makes sense with a pair of explosive attacks, Detroit's subpar secondary, and the Cowboys' injuries on the edge.
- When these teams clashed in Dallas last December with similar lineups, the Cowboys were 4.5-point favorites and won a 20-19 thriller.
- The Lions are fresh off a bye and are 3-1 straight-up and against the spread this year. They've gone 29-12 ATS since the start of 2022.
Lions vs Cowboys betting trend to know
The Cowboys have hit the Over in seven of their last nine games at home (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Cowboys.
Lions vs Cowboys game info
| Location: | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-13-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Lions vs Cowboys latest injuries
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