Lions vs Giants Week 11 Picks and Predictions: New York's Run Game Bullies Detroit

Week 11 in the NFL sees winter weather hit the northeast, affecting several games including Sunday's showdown between the Detroit Lions and New York Giants. 

Detroit is coming off back-to-back wins while the G-Men have won five of their last six as they aim to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2016.

NFL odds opened with New York as a 3.5-point home favorite before shortening to -3, while the Over/Under sits at 45. Here are my best free Lions vs. Giants NFL betting picks and predictions for November 20.

Lions vs Giants best odds

Lions vs Giants picks and predictions

One area where the Lions hold the advantage in this matchup is their passing game. That sounds weird to say with the noodle-armed Jared Goff under center, but he's still better than Daniel Jones who is averaging just 177.3 passing yards per game and 6.7 yards per attempt.

However, that lone Lions advantage could be neutralized by the weather at the Meadowlands on Sunday with winds expected to gust at 19 mph. 

That should favor the Giants, who have a more mobile QB in Jones and are led by Saquon Barkley who is second in the NFL with 931 rushing yards. Detroit has a talented back of its own in D'Andre Swift but he's playing hurt and has been limited to 13 carries over the last three weeks. Jamaal Williams is a very capable backup but isn't on Barkley's level as a runner. 

The Giants are also slightly better at stopping the run with Detroit's defense 29th in the league in Rush EPA and 28th in success rate.

The biggest strength of New York's stop unit has been its ability to bend without breaking. it is second in the NFL in red-zone defense (allowing foes to score a touchdown on just 38.2% of trips inside its 20-yard line) while Detroit ranks 26th (63.6%). 

With the Lions having to settle for field-goal attempts (with the wind affecting kicks) and the Giants more likely to find the end zone, I'm grabbing the home side on the spread. 

My best bet: Giants -3 (-109 at Pinnacle)

Lions vs Giants spread analysis

The Lions are coming off back-to-back wins after edging the Bears 31-30 at Soldier Field last week. It's been another rough season for the 3-6 Lions who have shown improvement on offense but have struggled immensely on the other side of the ball. 

Despite promising play from rookies Aidan Hutchinson and Malcolm Rodriguez, Detroit's defense is last in the league in EPA/Play. New York's stop unit ranks a respectable 19th in EPA/Play and is able to get stops when it needs to, ranking second in the league in opponent third-down conversion rate. 

The Giants are fresh off a 24-16 victory against the Texans and have gone 5-1 straight up and against the spread in their last six games.

They have a one-dimensional offense, but they run the ball effectively with Barkley and do an excellent job of controlling the clock — ranking fourth in the league in time of possession. The Lions are just 28th in time of possession, which could prove crucial in this contest.

Lions vs Giants Over/Under analysis

With windy weather and cold temperatures on Sunday, we could see both offenses lean on their ground games. That said, both defenses struggle to make tackles in the second level and in the open field, so even with run-heavy attacks, we could see these teams put up some points. 

With the exception of a pair of ugly offensive performances against the Patriots and Cowboys (two of the best defensive teams in the league), the Lions have done a good job of moving the chains this season.

Unfortunately, their defense surrenders a league-worst 29.3 points per game. That competent offense and atrocious defense have resulted in the Over cashing in eight of Detroit's last 11 games. 

However, the Giants like to chew up the clock and play at a slower pace. That has resulted in the G-Men averaging 20.8 ppg and allowing just 19.2. That has resulted in them going 7-1-1 to the Under this season.

With Detroit being one of the best Over bets in the league and the Giants being one of the best Under bets, I'll steer clear of playing the total in this one — especially with the unpredictable weather. 

Lions vs Giants betting trend to know

The Under is 7-0 in the Giants' last seven home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Giants.

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