Week 9 in the NFL is headlined by a clash between the 6-1 Detroit Lions and the 6-2 Green Bay Packers at historic Lambeau Field.
With the status of Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love up in the air and messy weather on the horizon, my Lions vs Packers predictions expect a lower-scoring contest.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this NFC North duel on November 3, live at 4:25 p.m. on FOX.
Make sure to also read our Lions vs. Packers prop picks!
Lions vs Packers prediction & picks
Spread
The look-ahead line for this game had the Green Bay Packers installed as 1-point home favorites. Another dominant win from the Detroit Lions in Week 9, combined with the injury to Jordan Love, shifted the line to Lions -4.5 by Monday. Now that Love has been ruled a game-time decision, the spread has moved to -2.5.
We saw books over-adjust to the absence of Love earlier this year, with third-year QB Malik Willis stepping up to lead the Packers to a pair of wins and covers. Willis was an efficient 12-for-14 for 122 yards with 41 yards on the ground in Week 2 against the Colts before completing 13 of 19 passes for 202 yards with 73 rushing yards in a blowout win against the Titans the following week.
Detroit's defense has looked vulnerable since losing superstar defensive end Aidan Hutchinson to a season-ending injury, allowing 6.5 yards per play over the last two weeks. While the Lions offense has been on fire, they have a history of struggling in poor weather games, and Lambeau will be wet and windy on Sunday.
I'm leaning towards the Packers with the points but would recommend waiting until closer to game time. If it becomes clear Willis starts (and I expect he will with the Packers bye coming up), we should get Green Bay above that key number of 3.0.
Moneyline
With such a short spread and upset potential in this rivalry game, it also makes sense to consider the Packers ML at +120
Over/Under
Although Willis has impressed this year, he's still a drop-off from Love. Especially in his ability to spread the ball and process reads. The Packers also heavily leaned on the run when Willis started, and they'll likely use the same gameplan here — especially with rain and heavy wind in the forecast.
There's a 94% chance of showers with winds just above the 15 mph threshold that affects downfield throws. The Lions benefit from playing their home games indoors, and their offense has been far less explosive when exposed to the elements.
Cali-boy Jared Goff has yet to play a game outside this year, but last season he averaged just 6.5 yards per attempt with a passer rating of 82.0 in five games outdoors compared to 8.1 YPA with a rating of 108.9 in domes. That, combined with an underrated Packers defense, is enough for the Under to be my most confident bet.
My Lions vs Packers best bet
Under 47.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
As mentioned above, the combination of messy weather, Willis likely at QB for the Packers, and Detroit's offense struggling outdoors has me taking the Under.
It's also worth mentioning Detroit is a run-heavy team that chews up the clock and leads to fewer possessions. In addition, the Packers defense has been solid. Since Week 3 they are fourth in the league in defensive EPA while holding foes to just 4.0 yards per carry.
Both teams also play at a slow tempo, with Detroit averaging the fourth-most seconds per snap (28.4) and Green Bay close behind (28.1).
Lions vs Packers same-game parlay
Under 47.5
Packers Alt Spread +7.5
Jared Goff Under 29.5 pass attempts
Since I'm expecting a messy weather game where both teams rely on their rushing attacks, it makes sense to fade Goff on his pass attempts. Especially since he hasn't thrown more than 25 passes in his last five games.
Being able to push the Packers spread above a touchdown and still get a nice payout on this SGP is well worth it.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Lions vs Packers odds
Lions vs Packers live odds
Lions vs Packers opening odds
- Spread: Detroit -4.5 | Green Bay +4.5
- Moneyline: Detroit -205 | Green Bay +170
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 | Under 48.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Lions vs Packers betting trend to know
Packers coach Matt LaFleur is 24-11 ATS (69%) and 20-15 SU as an underdog. Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Packers.
Lions vs Packers game info
| Location: | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-3, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Lions vs Packers latest injuries
Lions vs Packers weather
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