The most successful NFL franchise this century takes on one of the worst as the New England Patriots host the Detroit Lions in Week 5 on Sunday.
However, the past has little relevance, with the Pats playing a rookie quarterback and the Lions rolling out a young and hungry lineup that has looked more competitive than anything Detroit fans have seen in years.
NFL betting lines opened with New England as a 3-point favorite, with the Over/Under installed at 45.5. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Lions vs. Patriots on October 9.
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Lions vs Patriots best odds
Lions vs Patriots picks and predictions
These are the two worst defenses in the NFL at stopping the run, with the Lions last in the league in defensive rush DVOA and the Patriots ranked right behind them.
Given the typical offensive game plans of these teams (and a rookie quarterback at the helm for New England), I'm expecting a run-heavy approach from both sides.
With the Pats rolling with a running back platoon of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, it can be tough to figure out who will have a big game. However, the same can't be said for Detroit, as Jamaal Williams will carry the load on Sunday.
Detroit's No. 1 running back, D'Andre Swift, has been ruled out for the second week in a row with an ankle injury which also limited him to just seven carries in Week 3 against Minnesota.
Williams rumbled for 87 yards on 20 carries in that contest and then rushed for 108 yards on 19 rush attempts last week versus Seattle. He has benefited from running behind a stout Lions' offensive line that could be even better with the possible return of Pro Bowl guard Jonah Jackson, who has missed the last three games with a finger injury but was a full participant in Friday's practice.
My best bet: Jamaal Williams Over 65.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
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Lions vs Patriots spread analysis
Both of these teams are 1-3, but there's been plenty of optimism in Detroit after a very competitive start to the year and some outstanding play from the Lions' attack. Detroit is seventh in the NFL in offensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, while ranking eighth in EPA/Play.
Despite missing their two-best playmakers last week in Swift and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (along with another starting wideout in D.J. Chark), the Lions still managed 520 yards and 45 points against Seattle.
Unfortunately, their defense surrendered 555 yards and 48 points, as they now rank last in the league in defensive DVOA and EPA/Play.
The Patriots are coming off a 27-24 overtime loss to the Packers in which they covered the spread as 9.5-point road underdogs. New England was missing starting quarterback Mac Jones in that contest and then lost backup Brian Hoyer to a head injury late in the first quarter.
Rookie Bailey Zappe took over at QB and (with the exception of an early fumble) played pretty well, completing 10 of 15 passes for 99 yards.
Zappe is expected to start on Sunday, and while he wasn't selected until the fourth round in April, he set the FBS records for passing yards and touchdowns last year. Head coach Brian Belichick also knows how to put young passers in a position to succeed.
The Pats will likely lean on their ground game which has averaged 145.3 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks.
Lions vs Patriots Over/Under analysis
The Pats opened the season with an ugly offensive performance in a 20-7 loss to the Dolphins and then beat the Steelers despite scoring just 17 points in Week 2.
They lost to the Ravens in Week 3, but their offense finally came alive with 447 yards in that contest. Unfortunately, they then lost Jones to a high-ankle sprain, and Zappe will be hard-pressed to replace the production of last year's first-round pick and Pro Bowl selection.
Sure, Detroit's defense made Geno Smith look like Joe Montana last week, but he had a pair of high-end receivers in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. On Sunday, Zappe will be surrounded by one of the worst WR corps in the league.
Although Swift has been ruled out again, both St. Brown and Josh Reynolds are questionable and could suit up. Having Brown back in the lineup would be huge for quarterback Jared Goff. The sophomore leads the Lions with 8.2 catches and 90.3 receiving yards per game in his last nine, dating back to last season.
That said, injuries piling up on defense might offset the possible return of St. Brown. Detroit's already piss-poor secondary has looked even worse after losing safety Tracy Walker to a season-ending injury in Week 3. The Lions have also ruled out starting edge rusher Charles Harris due to a groin injury.
With an explosive offense and a horrific defense, the Lions have gone 4-0 to the Over this season.
Lions vs Patriots betting trend to know
The Lions are 6-0 to the Over in their last six games. Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Patriots.
Lions vs Patriots game info
| Location: | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA |
| Date: | Sunday, October 9, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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