The total is a tall one for the Sunday Night Football showdown between the Detroit Lions and the Houston Texans, and that means there should be no shortage of touchdowns at NRG Stadium in Week 10.
My Lions vs. Texans anytime touchdown prop picks will play it safe with a Houston selection but get a little more adventurous on the Lions' side of things.
If you're looking for more free NFL picks, check out Josh Inglis' full Lions vs. Texans predictions for November 10.
Lions anytime touchdown pick
Jameson Williams anytime touchdown
+210 at bet365
Jameson Williams missed each of the Detroit Lions' last two games due to a suspension for violating the NFL's performance-enhancing substances policy, but he and his game-changing speed are back in the lineup and ready to hamper the Houston Texans defense.
The Texans are next-to-last in the league in average depth of target (10.0 yards), meaning opposing quarterbacks are unafraid to test this unit deep down the field, and ninth-worst in yards allowed per catch (11.3). Perhaps most importantly, Houston has also surrendered the most passing touchdowns per game (2.11) of any team.
So while David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs might be logical targets based on their season-long production for the Lions, I'm looking to the air rather than the ground for a Detroit anytime TD prop.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is appealing in this market, too, as he's caught a TD pass from Jared Goff in six straight games. However, Williams is offering the higher line and tallied a touchdown in two of his last three games prior to his suspension.
Texans anytime touchdown pick
Joe Mixon anytime touchdown
-175 at bet365
C.J. Stroud has thrown for only 11 touchdowns across nine games this season, and just one total score over his last three contests. With Nico Collins still out and Stefon Diggs recently hitting the IR, I'm having a hard time wrapping my arms around a Texans receiver or tight end for a TD prop.
Joe Mixon is a logical touchdown selection for Houston, and his price reflects that. For those feeling a bit more bold, Mixon is +150 to score the first Texans touchdown on SNF.
Mixon has scampered for six total touchdowns over six games this season and added another score as a receiver. That includes six total TDs in four games since returning from injury in Week 6.
Mixon has gotten at least 24 carries in three straight games, and considering the Lions are sixth-worst in the NFL in yards allowed per rush (4.8), it would make sense for the Texans to stick to this run-heavy formula on Sunday night. The more carries Mixon gets, the more likely it is he'll break one for six points.
Not intended for use in MA.
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