The NFC North’s two lowest teams look to stay out of the basement as the Detroit Lions head to Minnesota to take on a Vikings team coming off a huge win at Lambeau Field last week.
The Lions come into this week’s matchup as four-point dogs after getting thumped by the Colts at home 41-21 in Week 8. The total sits at a robust 52.5 points, which is nothing new for either club.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Lions vs Vikings for Sunday, November 8 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings Betting Preview
Weather
Sunday’s game will be played indoors at US Bank Stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Lions: Kenny Golladay WR (Out), Trey Flowers DL (Out).
Vikings: Mark Fields CB (Out), Holton Hill CB (Out), Cameron Dantzler CB (Out), Mike Hughes CB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Over is 4-0 in the Vikings’ last four home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Vikings.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Sunday's matchup has recency bias written all over it. If bettors are basing their decisions on Week 8’s results, then that’s going to lead to a bigger percentage of wagers on the Vikings, and that’s exactly what we are seeing. Minnesota’s run game matched up very well against the Packers’ nonexistent run defense last week, which was a big reason for the eight-point Minnesota victory. Detroit has held its opponents to 2.8 yards per carry since Week 6, which is the best mark in the league.
Looking at trends would also point to Minnesota, as the Vikings have ripped off five straight ATS wins against their NFC North rivals. However, this is not the Mike Zimmer defense of seasons past. Opponents are scoring nearly 30 points per game against this banged-up defense.
And finally, the biggest story out of Detroit is the injury to All-Pro WR Kenny Golladay. The receiver will not suit up on Sunday in what would have been a fantastic matchup against the league’s thinnest secondary. The Vikings have half-a-dozen injuries to their corners, and QB Matthew Stafford has no problem spreading the love — nine different players targeted last week. Look for the Lions to win the turnover battle as well, something they have done in four of the last five weeks.
We like the points in this divisional game with Minnesota hopefully patting themselves on the back after last week’s win over the Packers.
PREDICTION: Detroit +4 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Totals of 50-plus points are nothing new to either side, as both teams are a combined 4-4 O/U of totals above 49 points. The scoreboard in US Bank Stadium has had a workout, with Minnesota 3-0 O/U at home this year, averaging 67 combined points.
It sucks having to trust Kirk Cousins with anything, but the inconsistent QB played very well against Detroit in two games last year, completing over 74 percent of his passes and throwing five TDs with zero picks. Minnesota doesn't have a defense that can shut teams down (both wins this year hit the Over) so this game could go back and forth if Detroit can game plan against a below-average defense without Golladay.
Both teams are also averaging more than three TDs per game and scoring red-zone TDs at greater than 72% of their trips inside the 20. Sign us up for another indoor Over.
PREDICTION: Over 52.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
Rookie WR Justin Jefferson has filled the Stefon Diggs role quicker than most imagined. The green receiver has topped 100 yards receiving three times this year, but has really blown up in games at home, as Jefferson has 16 catches for 341 yards and three TDs in his two most-recent home contests. In the two games that Diggs played Detroit last year as the Vikings' outside WR, the now-Buffalo receiver gained 235 yards on 13 grabs.
Coming off a game where the receivers were decoys to the Dalvin Cook show, Minnesota may go back to the air with Detroit giving up the fewest yards per rush over the last three weeks at 2.8. We especially like Jefferson coming off a quiet 26-yard performance while still being the second-ranked WR in all of football per PFF.
PREDICTION: Justin Jefferson Over 65.5 receiving yards (-120)
Lions vs Vikings betting card
- Detroit +4 (-110)
- Over 52.5 (-110)
- Justin Jefferson Over 65.5 receiving yards (-120)
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