It’s Thursday and that means Week 4 in the NFL begins with a prime-time matchup between the Eagles and Packers. We break down an under-used prop bet in that game and then we dive into some other bets we like for Sunday. We break down all the betting angles from player props to derivatives and team totals as we bring you our favorite bets for Week 4. **video
THE PROPIEST OF PROP BETS
Let’s kick things off with some action for tonight’s game. We are already on the Over 39 as part of our prime time 6-point teaser and we are going to add a prop bet that might change the way you cheer for the game. Who's up for rooting for a pass interference call in the endzone?!
The Philadelphia Eagles and the Green Bay Packers each scored a one-yard touchdown last week as well as giving one up to their opponents. Combined with the Eagles being a top-5 team in red zone scoring attempts per game and the Packers having the third-best rating for scoring TDs on their red zone trips (88 percent) we will be recommending the shortest TD Under 1.5 yards (-125).
Carson Wentz has even shown his ability to dive in from the one as the coaching staff dialed up his number twice in a row two weeks ago on Sunday night. Wentz's opponent, Aaron Rodgers, will more than likely pick on an injured-riddled and inexperienced Philly secondary, increasing our chance of a pass interference call in the endzone.
The prop markets are also good places to solidify our confidence in this bet as no running back has a rushing total Over 50.5, with the Eagles longest rush of the year at just 19 yards and the Packers longest at 15. Aaron Rodgers anytime TD is just +450 where QBs markets usually sit in the +1000 neighborhood. Finally, there should be plenty of scoring as the Over 4.5 total TDs is -175.
BIG BANG RIDLEY
After amassing 12 catches on 16 targets for 169 yards and two scores over weeks 1 and 2, Atlanta Falcons receiver Calvin Ridley was invisible in Week 3 with just one catch on one target. Lucky for us, a big bounce-back is possible Sunday at home versus the Tennessee Titans. Even the receiver's coach said he will get the pass-catcher more involved after last week.
Ridley, the Falcon’s 2018 first-round draft pick, has also performed better at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome as his 62 yards per game at home trump his road splits of 44 yards a game. The Titans will cover Ridley with outside corners Malcolm Butler and Adoree’ Jackson who have combined to allow 21 receptions on 28 targets for a 75 percent completion rate. Look for some of Austin Hooper’s Week 3 usage (6/66/2) to go to the squeaky wheel, Ridley.
We are grabbing the Over on the Ridley's yardage total of 60.5.
BREAKING BAD
So far this season, we are 3-0 prop betting against the Miami Dolphins. Each week is getting harder to find value. If you do find it, you have to make the plays early in the week as what is -110 on Thursday is closer to -170 on Sunday.
The Dolphins are a 16-point home dog entering their Sunday matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers. Quarterback Josh Rosen really doesn’t change much in terms of evaluating the team from a betting standpoint as the Dolphins are next-level bad. The Chargers are 6th in the league allowing 6.2 points in the first half while the Dolphins have put together 16 points through three first halves.
We are backing the Dolphins first-half team total Under 6.5 at -111 as the odds are better than Under 0.5 first-half touchdowns which sits at -125
If you’re really looking for a score, the Chargers to win to nil in the first half is +300 or if you think the Dolphins are on the verge of something special offensively, like three points, grab the Over 0.5 first-half field goals for -125
JACOBS' LADDER
Last week, Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman ran for 88 yards against the Indianapolis Colts, which was more than twice his total rushing yardage from the previous two weeks. A lot of this had to do with the absence of Indy's All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard who is still in concussion protocol and very doubtful for Sunday’s game against Josh Jacobs and the Oakland Raiders.
The potential loss in the middle is bad news for the Colts who sit in 29th in yards per rush attempt allowed. Conversely, this is great news for Jacobs who is 13th in yards per rush at 5.1 yards, right between Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott. The problem is the Raiders, who are 6.5-point road dogs, may fall behind early but with Jacobs’ floor of 10-12 carries he still has the ability to rip off long gains as his long run of 51 yards this year is the eighth-best mark of the year. Hit the Over on Josh Jacobs 77.5 rushing yards.
21+. NJ only. Odds may vary. Eligibility restrictions apply. See website for details.
