Like songstress Mariah Carey breaking away from controlling ex-husband and music mogul Tommy Mottola, Los Angeles Chargers star quarterback Justin Herbert is out from under the thumb of former offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi.
In the wake of her liberation, Mariah gave us unbridled bangers like "Honey," "Heartbreaker," and "We Belong Together." And hopefully, for the sake of Herbert, he hits new heights with OC Kellen Moore doing what Lombardi would not: throw the ball downfield.
The promise of Herbert “unleashed” is propping up the Bolts’ offseason NFL odds, with NFL futures, win totals, look-ahead lines, and Super Bowl odds all calling for a big season from the Chargers, who are not only fighting one of the more competitive schedules in the NFL but their own history.
Will L.A. bettors be the victim of more “Chargering” or is this franchise finally over the hump? We find out in my 2023 Los Angeles Chargers NFL betting preview.
Los Angeles Chargers futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +2,500 | +2,100 | +2,200 |
| Win conference | +1,300 | +1,100 | +1,200 |
| Win division | +340 | +300 | +300 |
| Make playoffs | -125 | -115 | -120 |
| O9.5 wins | -120 | -128 | -145 |
| U9.5 wins | +100 | +104 | +125 |
Best futures bet: Over 9.5 wins (-120 at DraftKings)
The Chargers finished 10-7 straight up in 2022 — smack dab on their season win total. Five of those seven losses came in games decided by one score (eight points or less). Los Angeles was actually a great bet in nail-biters — despite its propensity for belly flops — finishing 8-3-1 ATS in those close calls.
This year, expectations are a touch slimmer, with a win total of 9.5 shaded toward the Over. The look-ahead line would have us feeling pretty good about another 10-win season or better from the Bolts, considering Los Angeles is a favorite in 13 of its 17 outings in 2023.
And while the Chargers’ strength of schedule ranks eighth overall and has contenders like Kansas City (twice), Dallas, Buffalo, Detroit, Baltimore, and the Jets on tap, it’s void of any real situational goblins that could pop up and derail the team.
Health is always an issue for L.A. but even with some scrapes and bruises along the way, the Chargers are clear for 10 or more victories in 2023.
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Los Angeles Chargers betting overview
What will win bets: Pass defense
If Justin Herbert and the offense flourish under Moore, then the defense will face plenty of pass action itself.
Opponents will be scrambling to catch up and running right into one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Last season, the Chargers ranked 10th in Pass Defense DVOA and No. 2 in EPA allowed per dropback, shutting down rivals for a success rate of just 35.6% through the air.
The pass rush, headlined by edge masters Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, must improve on a meager 19.8% pressure rate, which cooked up 40 sacks. If it can cause more chaos in the pocket, opposing QBs will have to hurry their throws against one of the most talented secondaries in the league.
Los Angeles allowed an average of 11.8 second-half points last season (versus an output of eight 2H points for) and that manifested itself in some blown covers as well as a 7-10-1 record against the second-half spread. I expect an uptick in takeaways after the Bolts scooped 24 in 2022 (14 interceptions), which should help slam the door in the final 30 minutes.
What will lose bets: Offensive flop
Football fans are dying to see what Herbert can do now that Lombardi’s ultra-conservative playcalling has gone the way of the dodo. All the offseason buzz around Moore’s approach says the Bolts are going to be bombing it, but is this scheme 180 going to be a smooth transition?
The Chargers have big burly receivers and don’t have much speed to stretch the field and maximize Herbert’s arm strength. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, who can’t seem to stay healthy, worked wonders in Lombardi’s shorter system but do those aging legs have enough tread on the tires for 2023?
The rushing attack has been a sore spot for Los Angeles, which sat 22nd in Run DVOA at Football Outsiders and managed the third-fewest yards per carry (3.7) last season. Lead back Austin Ekeler is more effective as a pass catcher but he did rush for 13 touchdowns (along with five receiving TDs) last year.
The Bolts need some semblance of a rushing threat to keep the heat off Herbert, especially if he requires more time in the pocket to allow deep plays to develop. Herbert faced the second most blitzes in 2022 and while he was sacked only 38 times, he did absorb the second most QB hits (72).
I think the Moore hiring was huge for Herbert, but I’m not completely sold on the guys executing this new offense.
Los Angeles Chargers 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Miami Dolphins |
-2.5 |
| 2 | @  Tennessee Titans |
-3.5 |
| 3 | @  Minnesota Vikings |
-1.5 |
| 4 | vs  Las Vegas Raiders |
-5.5 |
| 5 | BYE | |
| 6 | vs  Dallas Cowboys |
-1 |
| 7 | @  Kansas City Chiefs |
+5.5 |
| 8 | vs  Chicago Bears |
-5.5 |
| 9 | @  New York Jets |
+2 |
| 10 | vs  Detroit Lions |
-3 |
| 11 | @  Green Bay Packers |
-2.5 |
| 12 | vs  Baltimore Ravens |
-2 |
| 13 | @  New England Patriots |
-1.5 |
| 14 | vs  Denver Broncos |
-3 |
| 15 | @ Las Vegas Raiders |
-2.5 |
| 16 | vs  Buffalo Bills |
+1 |
| 17 | @ Denver Broncos |
+1 |
| 18 | vs Kansas City Chiefs |
+2 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
The juice on the season win total is projecting at least 10 victories and the look-ahead lines are very optimistic with the Bolts giving the points in 13 games. Granted, eight of those spreads are less than a field goal (-2.5 or shorter).
My NFL ratings place the Chargers No. 7 in the league (66.18/100), which is inside the Top 10 contenders but a step down from the AFC elite, with Kansas City (80.88), Cincinnati (75.0) and Buffalo (70.59) setting the conference pace.
Los Angeles does get the tough SOS rating in the AFC West but doesn’t draw any situational spots that could otherwise sway results. It has back-to-back road games at Tennessee (-3.5) and Minnesota (-2.5) in Week 2 and Week 3, and then alternates venues for the rest of the season following an early Week 5 bye.
On top of that, the most challenging non-divisional games of 2023 tend to come inside SoFi, with the Dolphins, Cowboys, Bears, Lions, Ravens, and Bills all making the trip to Inglewood. Los Angeles also plays just eight road games and is road chalk in five of those away tilts.
The Chargers sort out the pecking order in the AFC with an electric Week 1 opener. The Dolphins come to SoFi Stadium with L.A. set as a 2.5-point favorite and a total of 50.5 points. One of my first bets of 2023 was the Over 49.5 when look-ahead lines popped up in the spring. My NFL ratings set the Bolts as 3.5-point faves.
The Chargers’ look-ahead totals are sky-high when compared to other teams. Los Angeles has an average Over/Under number of 47.8 points with five early totals at 50 or higher. That’s a reflection of this revamped playbook but also telling of the level of competition ahead, with offensive heavyweights like the Dolphins, Chiefs, Cowboys, Jets, Lions, and Bills on the sked.
Los Angeles Chargers schedule spot bet
Week 6: VS Cowboys
SoFi Stadium is often overrun with opposing fans and that’s especially true for the Dallas Cowboys, who travel well no matter the town.
However, the schedule could level the field for the Bolts, with the Cowboys crunched into this Monday Night Football matchup in Week 6 and L.A. enjoying two weeks to prepare for "America’s Team."
Dallas will be playing its second straight road game on the West Coast after visiting San Francisco for Sunday Night Football in Week 5. This will also be the team’s third road game in four weeks and fourth away tilt in the first six. There’s also a potential look-ahead spot to a bye in Week 8 given the road-heavy opening sked for Dallas.
The Chargers will be the “Re-Chargers” with a Week 5 bye giving them two weeks to rest and prepare with plenty of insider info on the Cowboys from new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who spent the past four seasons holding the OC clipboard in Big D.
The look-ahead spread is L.A. -2 while my power ratings produced a forecast of -1.98, before adjusting for Dallas’ detrimental schedule spot and Los Angeles’ rest/prep advantage.
Star power: Justin Herbert props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | +1,200 | +900 | +950 |
| OPOY | +4,500 | +4,000 | +3,000 |
| Pass yards leader | +650 | +500 | +450 |
| Pass TD leader | +1,100 | +600 | +1,000 |
| O30.5 pass TD | -120* | -108 | -115 |
| U30.5 pass TD | +100* | -118 | -115 |
| Pass yard total | 4,450.5 | 4,425.5 | 4,450.5 |
*Pass TD total is 29.5 at DraftKings
Best prop: Over 10.5 Interceptions (-110 at DraftKings)
If we can say something good about Joe Lombardi’s offense, it’s that it didn’t lend itself to mistakes. Herbert had only 10 interceptions in 2022, which is damn good considering he threw the second most pass attempts.
That short leash limited INTs but with Moore stretching the field with deeper attempts, the margin for error grows. All but one of the season-long projections I scanned for Herbert came in under 11 interceptions and some had a ceiling of 14, which I think is still conservative.
There’s bound to be some growing pains and miscues as the Bolts adapt and I’m not in love with the receivers running this system either, as they’re more tall, contested-catch guys rather than speedier wideouts who can get under those long bombs.
I don’t see Herbert throwing much less than the 65% of snap count from last year, especially considering how the early Over/Under numbers are calling for a bunch of shootouts with other top-tier attacks.
Taking the Over 10.5 INTs isn’t a knock on Herbert’s status as an elite QB. Those errors just come with the territory when trying to push the ball down the field.
Los Angeles Chargers betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
With Joe Lombardi out and Kellen Moore in at OC, this is going to be more of an aggressive passing attack in 2023 and the Chargers have the pieces to do it. Moore helped Dak Prescott finish in the Top 10 in intended air yards in 2022 while Justin Herbert has been a league-average or worse passer in yards per attempt under Lombardi over the last two years and finished 31st in attended air yards last season.
Keenan Allen’s injuries have been frustrating, but the pass-catcher finished with 66 catches for 752 yards (89 targets) over the final eight weeks last season after shedding his hamstring injury. With enough talent surrounding him and giving him better matchups, the only thing keeping Allen away from another 100-catch season is missing five games or more. With a reception total of 85.5, it’s hard not to love the Over when even a 13-game campaign could produce an Over on this modest total in a passing attack that will be one of the best in football. His Over 875.5 yards projects well too with THE BLITZ expecting 1177.04 yards from the WR.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
We’ll find out if having a competent offensive coordinator will be the key to the Chargers getting over the hump with Kellen Moore replacing Joe Lombardi, who failed to properly take advantage of Justin Herbert’s skillset. While working as the OC in Dallas, Moore helped guide stacked Cowboys’ offenses to being a Top-six team in points per game in three of his four seasons on the job.
Success should be expected with this loaded offense and that’s why I like a bet on the Chargers to lead the league in scoring at +1,600. After finishing fifth in points per game in 2021, they dropped to 12th last season thanks to Lombardi’s incompetence, and Herbert being beat-up throughout the season didn’t help. Don’t be surprised to see LA put up 30-point games with regularity
Los Angeles Chargers trend to know
Since moving to L.A., the Chargers have made the most of any extra points handed down from the oddsmakers.
Los Angeles went 1-5 SU but 5-1 ATS as an underdog in 2022 and is a collective 20-11-3 ATS (63%) as a pup since the franchise landed in La-La Land in 2017. Give the Bolts the points on the road and they’re 15-6-3 ATS (69%) over the past six seasons, including 3-1 ATS as a road dog last year.
This season, the early odds have Los Angeles getting points in just three of its eight road games.
Chargers games as road underdogs
- Week 7 @ Chiefs (+6)
- Week 9 @ Jets (+2.5)
- Week 17 @ Broncos (+1)
