Despite a Super Bowl ring and the bulk of the Los Angeles Rams’ standouts returning (including head coach Sean McVay), oddsmakers are lukewarm on L.A. in 2022.
Los Angeles isn’t an instant frontrunner to repeat, sitting behind three clubs on the Super Bowl futures board and tied with another as the fourth overall choice to become the first repeat Big Game champ since 2004.
Bettors seem a little blasé on the Rams as well, fading Los Angeles from a 1-point home favorite vs. Buffalo (the Super Bowl favorite) in the season opener to as far as +2.5 for this huge Thursday nighter.
And it’s not just Week 1 where we see movement away from the Rams. The opening lookahead lines had Los Angeles as a favorite in as many as 13 games. Now, those markets have the Rams giving points in as few as 11 outings.
Are McVay and L.A. built Ram tough in 2022 or will the Rams be sheepish for bettors? Find out in our Los Angeles Rams NFL betting preview.
Los Angeles Rams futures odds
| Futures bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| To win Super Bowl | +1,000 |
| To win conference | +450 |
| To win division | +125 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 10.5 (Over -110) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes -250 / No +210 |
Best futures bet: Under 10.5 wins (-110)
The latest lookahead lines, which reflect the market moves and slimming sentiment for the defending champs, have the Rams as point spread favorites in just 11 games — vs. some numbers which had L.A. in line to win 13 games.
Even with a home-friendly slate to open the year and a legit shot of sweeping Arizona and Seattle in divisional play, pegging Los Angeles for 11+ wins is tough on the nerves. The back half of the calendar features rough road games and playoff contenders, with a pair of NFC West dustups against Seattle serving as respite.
In fact, win No. 11 may come down to a road trip to end the year: At the Seahawks. And if the Rams are locked into a postseason position before Week 18, don’t expect to see McVay march out his starters in the finale.
Los Angeles Rams betting overview
What will win bets: Defense
As long as you have Aaron Donald wreaking havoc up front and Jalen Ramsey locking down the secondary, you have a chance to cover spreads.
The Rams' defense was the backbone of the Super Bowl run and truthfully the entire season. As the wheels wobbled on the offense in 2021, Los Angeles’ stop unit kept the team competitive and checked foes to 17 points or less in five of the eight ATS victories during the regular season.
Donald remains the NFL’s premier defender, aided by Leonard Floyd and new addition Bobby Wagner in the front seven. Ramsey doesn’t have as deep a complementing staff around him in the secondary but as long as L.A. continues to stuff the run and plague passers (third in sacks/T3 in INTs in 2021), this team has a shot at winning every game.
What will lose bets: Super Bowl slump
The Rams were criticized for mortgaging their future to land big-name stars, a risky move that paid off. Los Angeles got to say “I told you so” by winning the Lombardi Trophy on its own turf, but could that leave L.A. vulnerable to a Super Bowl slump?
Defending champs aren’t great bets to begin with. Despite often ranking among the stronger teams, they’re just 98-89-5 against the spread the following season (52%) since 2010. Only four of those Big Game winners covered more than nine games the next year.
Not only are those reigning champions getting everyone’s best shot, but also face ballooning point spreads week after week as the public holds them in high regard.
The 2022 Rams have all that coming their way as well as a schedule that ranks out as the toughest slate of games this season. Things get especially steep after the bye in Week 7 with wave after wave of contenders and six of the closing 10 games coming on the road (well, one “road” game is against the Bolts).
Los Angeles Rams game-by-game odds
As mentioned above, the lookahead lines vary for Los Angeles in 2022. When the schedule was released and spreads hit the board, L.A. was the chalk in 13 games with one pick’em on the board. However, as the Week 1 spread jumped the fence from -1 to +2.5, later lookahead lines took a tempered approach to the Rams.
Los Angeles’ schedule is a beast but it’s a little tamer up front, with the Rams playing only two games away from home in the first two months of action, and those are short hops to Arizona and San Francisco. The home-field value of SoFi Stadium is worth about as much as your crypto portfolio but perhaps after winning the Super Bowl, L.A. sports fans can give the Rams the time of day in 2022.
McVay & Co. are underdogs in as many as six games, depending on where you bet (PK or underdog in matchups with Green Bay and L.A. Chargers). The Rams went 3-0 straight up and ATS as rare pups in 2021 (including winning +2.5 at Tampa in playoffs) and are 11-8 ATS when getting points under McVay (since 2017).
| Week | Opponent | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs. Buffalo | +2.5 | 52.5 |
| 2 | vs. Atlanta | -13.5 | 48.5 |
| 3 | @ Arizona | -2 | 50.5 |
| 4 | @ San Francisco | +1.5 | 49 |
| 5 | vs. Dallas | -3.5 | 51.5 |
| 6 | vs. Carolina | -10 | 46.5 |
| 7 | BYE | ||
| 8 | vs. San Francisco | -3.5 | 47.5 |
| 9 | @ Tampa Bay | +2.5 | 51.5 |
| 10 | vs. Arizona | -5.5 | 51 |
| 11 | @ New Orleans | -3 | 48 |
| 12 | @ Kansas City | +3 | 52 |
| 13 | vs. Seattle | -10.5 | 47.5 |
| 14 | vs. Las Vegas | -6.5 | 51 |
| 15 | @ Green Bay | +2.5 | 50 |
| 16 | vs. Denver | -3.5 | 47.5 |
| 17 | @ L.A. Chargers | PK | 51 |
| 18 | @ Seattle | -5.5 | 43.5 |
Los Angeles Rams pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
I love Allen Robinson Overs, and this is coming from someone who rarely ever bets season long Overs. The Rams have little depth, so as long as they avoid injuries, They should have another 10-12 win season.
Catch the Hitman NFL Release Show on Covers every Thursday and Friday throughout the NFL season!
Adam Chernoff, The Simple Handicap podcast (@adamchernoff)
Los Angeles Rams early season forecast
A Super Bowl preview kicks off the 2022 NFL season. We’ve mentioned the massive line move on this game, with the Rams opening as low as -1 and getting pushed to +2.5 across the industry. The Bills made some sexy moves this offseason and Matt Stafford’s shoulder pain this summer has bettors treating L.A. with care.
You’d think seeing the Super Bowl champs as home dogs right out of the gate would be a rare occurrence, but Denver was a 3-point underdog at home to Carolina (the team it beat in Super Bowl 50) in Week 1 2016. It went on to beat the Panthers 21-20 in that opener.
Of course, we have to mention the Week 1 trend involving defending champs: Super Bowl winners are 14-7-1 ATS (67%) in Week 1 of the following season since 2000. For what it’s worth, Tampa Bay did fail to cover in Week 1 last year, so tread with trends lightly.
The Thursday opener gives the Rams a breather before Week 2, sanding down the edges on a potential letdown spot against the hapless Falcons. Los Angeles is pegged as a 13.5-point fave — the biggest of all lookahead lines this summer. McVay is 11-2 SU and 7-6 ATS as double-digit chalk with Los Angeles going 4-9 Over/Under as a hefty favorite.
The Rams head to the desert to tackle the Cardinals in Week 3. Arizona will be without top receiver Deandre Hopkins for this first NFC West matchup and has L.A. giving two points to the host team with the total at 50.5. McVay might as well be the mayor of Glendale, boasting an all-time 10-1 SU and 9-1-1 ATS record against the Cardinals, including a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS record in Arizona.
Los Angeles Rams spot bet
Week 12: @ Kansas City (+3, 52)
This non-conference clash has been four years in the making. I can still recall watching the outstanding 2018 game between the Rams and Chiefs at a local pub with my wife and downing chicken wings and beer with every point. Needless to say, at the end of that 54-51 barnburner, she drove home.
But before we get a rematch, the Rams run a tough stretch of schedule that not only has them playing the second of back-to-back games when they get to Arrowhead but also three roadies in four weeks against some top-tier teams.
Week 9 is a battle in Tampa Bay between the last two Super Bowl winners. Los Angeles returns home to host Arizona, who will have Hopkins back for this Week 10 war. McVay’s guys go to the Big Easy to battle the Saints in Week 11, then travel to KC on Thanksgiving Weekend — a game that somehow isn’t slated for primetime or one of the holiday showcases. But at least we get the Lions on Thanksgiving. BARF!
Los Angeles Rams totals tip
Sean McVay is known as a coach who won’t shy away from running the football. The Rams have finished inside the Top 10 in run frequency in three of his five years in L.A. The 2021 playbook was 19th in run play percentage, but not by design — even with Stafford under center.
They lost top running back Cam Akers before Week 1 and finished just 20th in EPA per handoff. Heading into 2022, Akers is healthy and McVay has stressed the importance of having a run game with punch, as well as utilizing the RBs in the short passing game.
There are some very tall totals lined up for Los Angeles this season, with nine games tabbed with totals of 50+. Even considering the quality of quarterbacks showing up on the sked — L.A. ranked out T2 in my QB SOS — those seem like lofty numbers when you consider the Rams’ defense and more touches for the running backs on offense.
Stafford’s limited work at camp, a new No. 2 wide receiver in Allen Robinson on top of Van Jefferson’s knee injury (questionable for Week 1) could slow the progress of the passing game in the opening chunk of games. I’m looking at early Unders from L.A. with totals ranging from 48.5 to 52.5 points.
Star power: Matthew Stafford props
| Player prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| MVP | +1,600 |
| Most passing yards | +1,000 |
| Most passing TDs | +900 |
| Passing TD total | 34.5 (Over -110) |
| Passing yards total | 4,500.5 (Under -115) |
| Passing INT total | 13.5 (Under -115) |
Best prop: Under 4,500.5 passing yards (-115)
Matthew Stafford’s debut season in L.A. was a roller-coaster ride. He looked like an early MVP favorite in the first eight games (118.0 RTG), then served as the scapegoat as the team tumbled in November, eventually dragging his toes to the finish line (90.4 RTG in final nine games).
He averaged about 268 yards per game in the home stretch, as his accuracy dwindled, sacks mounted, and interceptions showed up. He struggled against some less-than-stellar secondaries and the 2022 slate sends Stafford up against some very stingy pass defenses and nasty pass rushers.
Protection became a problem in the second half of the season as well, and this offensive line isn’t as good as last year. Stafford had 601 passing attempts en route to 4,886 yards in 2021 but those reps could dwindle if McVay gets his way with the rushing attack and if his offseason shoulder issues are more than the team is letting on.
Los Angeles Rams trend to know
Non-conference play is Sean McVay’s kryptonite, at least when it comes to covering the spread.
The Rams head coach was 5-1 SU vs. AFC foes in 2021 but posted a 1-5 ATS count in those non-conference clashes — including winning Super Bowl LVI 23-20 but just coming up short as 4.5-point faves.
Over the past three seasons, Los Angeles is a dismal 4-10 ATS against AFC opposition and draws the division of death in 2022: The AFC West. Oh, and frickin’ Buffalo in Week 1.
HEADER RELATED TO TREND
- Week 1 vs. Buffalo (+2.5)
- Week 12 @ Kansas City (+3)
- Week 14 vs. Las Vegas (-6.5)
- Week 16 vs. Denver (-3.5)
- Week 17 @ L.A. Chargers (PK)
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