The Los Angeles Rams went all in to win their Super Bowl just two short seasons ago, mortgaging their future to secure key veterans and bring a Lombardi Trophy to La-La Land.
The team — and its bettors — started paying for that push last year, with the Rams suffering the biggest Super Bowl hangover in history, finishing 5-12 SU and 7-9-1 against the spread.
That “Big Game” bill remains due in 2023, with the NFL futures calling for a continued downfall for a team that cast off a number of those aging pieces this offseason.
Sean McVay enters the year with his least talented roster during his tenure in L.A., especially on defense. That’s been the calling card for Los Angeles, which finished inside the Top 10 in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders in four of McVay’s first five years on the job before ending up 18th in 2022.
The 2023 projections are much worse, with preseason polls painting the Rams as the 32nd ranked defense overall.
It’s bonkers to see Los Angeles go from a team that was an NFL odds favorite in 13 of its 17 games in last year’s look-ahead lines to a club giving the points in only two games (with two other contests at a pick’em), but here we are.
There could be plenty of sleepless “Hollywood nights,” as you'll see after reading my Los Angeles Rams 2023 NFL betting preview.
Los Angeles Rams futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +8,000 | +6,500 | +7,000 |
| Win conference | +4,500 | +3,500 | +3,000 |
| Win division | +1,000 | +1,000 | +850 |
| Make playoffs | +310 | +285 | +270 |
| O6.5 wins | -105 | +110 | +100 |
| U6.5 wins | -115 | -134 | -120 |
Best futures bet: Over 2.5 Divisional Wins (-135 at DraftKings)
My how far the mighty NFC West has fallen. In just two short seasons, this division has gone from the class of the NFL to a group that will likely send just one team to the tournament in 2023. The downfall of the Rams is a big part of that shift.
Yet, you could say L.A. has the best quarterback in the bunch, even with Matthew Stafford getting on in age. Los Angeles definitely has the best receiver in Cooper Kupp. And even though Aaron Donald has flirted with retirement the past two summers, he’s still a force to reckon with. Let’s not sell McVay short as a head coach, either.
While Los Angeles faceplanted against divisional rivals last year (1-5 SU), there’s more wiggle room in 2023.
I think we’re underestimating just how horrid Arizona is going to be, so I’m chalking up two division wins for the Rams right there.
The Niners aren’t going to cut their rivals any slack, but there is a Week 18 finale in San Fran that could be a rest spot for the playoff-bound 49ers, leaving the door open for a meaningless L.A. win.
And finally, L.A. could split two games with Seattle, notably a Week 11 home stand versus the Seahawks.
Seattle could get caught looking ahead to a Thursday nighter with the 49ers in Week 12, and Los Angeles is coming off a bye in Week 10. McVay owns a 5-3 SU mark off a bye for his career.
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Los Angeles Rams betting overview
What will win bets: Coaching
The Rams are one of the more “fresh faced” teams in the league with plenty of first and second-year pros expected to log major reps. Luckily, Los Angeles has a stellar coaching staff as well as a good group of veterans to hand down knowledge and maximize the potential of those younger players.
McVay is going to earn his money in 2023 and took some of the weight off his shoulders by replacing departed offensive coordinator Liam Cohen with Mike LaFluer. Reports state that LaFleur will have more control and responsibility over the offense than McVay’s previous OC’s, allowing him to focus on game plan and personnel.
The Rams also retained defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, who made the coaching interview rounds this offseason. His zone-heavy playbook should help those youngsters get their feet wet and will minimize the impact of mistakes by protecting against the big plays.
In the locker room, you still have leaders like Stafford, Kupp, and Donald, who command the respect of the roster and have the hardware to back it up. Though it sounds like Stafford is having a tough time keeping the kids off their phones rather than coming together as teammates.
What will lose bets: Inexperience
Heading into training camp, 52 of the Rams’ 88 active players were 24 years old or younger, and two-thirds of L.A.’s players have two or fewer years of NFL experience.
Coaching can only take those youngsters so far. Once the whistle blows, those kids are exposed nerves to opposing coordinators. And the Rams’ schedule is loaded with some of the top minds in football, including a pair of matchups with both Kyle Shanahan and Pete Carroll.
The defensive side of the ball is where we see the most inexperience, with just two full-time starters back from last year and big holes when compared to 2022. Jalen Ramsey, Leonard Floyd, and Bobby Wagner are all gone.
A Week 10 bye is like an oasis in the desert for this stop unit considering the first half of the schedule pits the “wet behind the ears” defense against the firepower of Seattle, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Dallas — all of which finished Top 10 in points per game in 2022.
Los Angeles Rams 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @  Seattle Seahawks |
+5.5 |
| 2 | vs  San Francisco 49ers |
+4.5 |
| 3 | @  Cincinnati Bengals |
+7.5 |
| 4 | @  Indianapolis Colts |
-1 |
| 5 | vs  Philadelphia Eagles |
+6.5 |
| 6 | vs  Arizona Cardinals |
-4 |
| 7 | vs  Pittsburgh Steelers |
+2 |
| 8 | @  Dallas Cowboys |
+7 |
| 9 | @  Green Bay Packers |
+2.5 |
| 10 | BYE | |
| 11 | vs Seattle Seahawks |
+2 |
| 12 | @ Arizona Cardinals |
-2 |
| 13 | vs  Cleveland Browns |
+2.5 |
| 14 | @  Baltimore Ravens |
+7 |
| 15 | vs  Washington Commanders |
-1 |
| 16 | vs  New Orleans Saints |
+1 |
| 17 | @  New York Giants |
+3 |
| 18 | @ San Francisco 49ers |
+7 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
There’s a notable discrepancy in the Rams’ season win total market and the look-ahead lines, with the win total at 6.5 (Under -135) and the early odds pegging Los Angeles for about three wins (two games as favorites and two at pick’em).
The strength of schedule ratings hand L.A. the seventh-hardest track in the NFL, which has been tempering expectations for my 2023 NFL power ratings. I have the Rams at 29th (29.26/100) in the league, still well ahead of the potential overturned Porta-Potty in Arizona (13.23/100).
Of those 13 underdog spreads, just three come in below a field goal, and eight of them are on the other side of three points (+3.5 or higher), with three at a touchdown or more. McVay’s teams have been a dog of +7 or higher only three times since 2017 (0-3 SU, 1-1-1 ATS), two of them coming when the roster was riddled with injuries at the end of last year.
This young core gets a baptism by fire in the first four weeks of 2023, starting with an opener in always-insane Lumen Field in Week 1. Odds range from Rams +4 to as high as +6, while my ratings sit just short of a touchdown. Seattle is 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 home openers.
That debut in the Emerald City puts Los Angeles on the road in three of its first four games, with effectively another “road” game at SoFi Stadium when the 49ers and their legions of fans take over in Week 2. McVay is 3-9 SU and ATS in regular season meetings with arch nemesis Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers for his career.
There are three sets of back-to-back road games on the schedule, but L.A. does get some extended home-heavy spots, including three straight inside SoFi from Week 5 to Week 7, and four of six at home after the bye in Week 10.
The Rams face an average Over/Under total of 42 points but does see taller totals against its toughest competition, with books expecting this young defense to buckle. Given the look-ahead lines, Los Angeles will be playing from behind a lot, so expect McVay to open the playbook and push tempo in order to catch up.
Los Angeles Rams schedule spot bet
Week 4: at Indianapolis
A matchup with the Colts looks like a winnable game for the Rams, considering bookies are on the fence with this spread at a PK. Indianapolis is working in a new coach, new system, and a rookie quarterback in 2023.
That said, L.A. has one of the tougher situational spots on the 2023 calendar that week.
Week 4 will be Los Angeles’ second straight road game and third away tilt in the opening four weeks of football. This game also comes on a short week, as the Rams play at Cincinnati on Monday Night Football in Week 3 and must travel to Indy, limiting rest and prep time.
Also working against L.A. is a nasty sandwich spot — letdown and look-ahead — barely getting a breather after battling the Bengals and looking ahead to a showdown with the reigning NFC champion Eagles in SoFi in Week 5.
Books may not lean one way or the other, but my NFL power ratings produce a spread of Colts -1.82 before adjusting for all those situational angles working against Los Angeles.
Star power: Cooper Kupp props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | +10,000 | +15,000 | +10,000 |
| OPOY | +3,000 | +3,000 | +2,000 |
| CPOY | +3,000 | +3,000 | OTB |
| Receiving yards leader | +800 | +1,200 | +900 |
| Receiving TD leader | +550 | +1,100 | +600 |
| Receptions leader | +500 | +500 | OTB |
| O9.5 rec TD | +105 | -1168.5 | OTB |
| U9.5 rec TD | -125 | -110 | OTB |
| Receiving yards total | 1,250.5 | 1,225.5 | OTB |
Best prop: Over 107.5 Receptions (-125 at DraftKings)
Kupp was working his way back from a broken ankle that cost him the second half of 2022 when he suffered a hamstring injury in camp, limiting his participation for the final month of the summer. He is on track to play in Seattle in Week 1 and will once again be among the top WRs in the NFL.
Kupp finished with 75 catches in nine games last year, an average of just over eight grabs per outing. That had him on pace to challenge his 145 catches in 2021 that led the NFL in receptions.
the 2023 player models aren’t as optimistic that Kupp will threaten 140 receptions, with his consensus count around 110. That alone won’t be enough to top the league in catches, with last year’s leaders topping out at 120-plus.
However, given the state of this L.A. defense and the forecast from oddsmakers, Los Angeles is going to be trailing for the majority of its games this year. And if you know Sean McVay’s play-calling tendencies when behind, it means a much quicker tempo and much more passing.
I opted for his receptions market rather than the yardage Over/Under given Stafford’s tender body. Should the veteran QB go down, whichever backup takes his place will still rely heavily on Kupp’s supreme route running on those simple short throws.
Los Angeles Rams betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
Cooper Kupp is coming off tightrope surgery to repair his right ankle injury in 2022 and now the receiver is dealing with a hamstring injury that could linger into Week 1. The Rams are not projected to be a high-scoring team and a little shopping around can find a TD prop of 9.5 at DraftKings while FanDuel is at 8.5.
Hitting double-digit TDs is a lot to ask as his health is an issue as is Matthew Stafford’s. With a gauntlet of an early schedule, Stafford might not even be on this team come November. This team added nothing in the offseason and could give the Cards a run at the worst record in football. Good luck finding any projection that has Kupp at nine or more TDs this year.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
What a difference a year makes for the Rams. This time last year, they were viewed as a serious Super Bowl contender. One massive disappointment of a season later and they’re now viewed as one of the biggest scrubs in the league with the fifth-worst odds to win the Super Bowl.
While I don’t expect them to return to their typical form as one of the NFL’s top teams, as they’ve been under Sean McVay, I do think they’ll be better than oddsmakers and bettors expect and am backing the Over on their 6.5-win total.
The season fell off a cliff for this team last season, but I don’t expect a great coach like McVay to simply lay down. He could have easily bolted for a career in broadcasting, and no one would have blamed him. His coaching along with the return of Matthew Stafford will make the team more competitive and lead to a few unexpected wins.
Los Angeles Rams trend to know
Sean McVay has struggled to cash in for La-La Land bettors when the schedule takes the Rams out of the NFC and into non-conference competition.
Since taking over the role of head coach in 2017, McVay’s guys are 18-10 SU versus the AFC but have come away with an 11-15-2 ATS record in those outings. Put Los Angeles on the road in AFC territory and it’s just 3-9-1 ATS (27%).
The non-conference calendar sends the AFC North at Los Angeles in 2023, which means trips to Cincinnati and Baltimore as big road dogs as well as that tricky Week 4 situational sandwich at the AFC South’s Colts.
Rams Non-Conference Road Games
- Week 3 at Cincinnati +9
- Week 4 at Indianapolis PK
- Week 14 at Baltimore +7
