The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Indianapolis Colts will both try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive when they meet at Lucas Oil Stadium on Monday Night Football.
Matt Ryan was briefly benched in favor of Sam Ehlinger this season, but since Frank Reich was replaced at head coach by Jeff Saturday, Ryan has once again assumed command of the Colts’ offense. The results have not been too shabby lately, but he’ll need to be at his best against T.J. Watt and company.
Here are our three favorite Matt Ryan props for Monday, November 28.
You can also read our Steelers vs. Colts picks and predictions in addition to our best Monday Night Football prop picks.
Matt Ryan MNF prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Matt Ryan MNF props
Passing a priority
Bettors should expect Matt Ryan to rack up the passing attempts as well as passing yardage on Monday night.
All-Pro running back Jonathan Taylor is the Colts’ biggest star, but his contributions could be limited once more against the Steelers in what’s been a disappointing campaign. The Pittsburgh defense specializes in shutting down opposing running backs, ranking seventh in rushing yards allowed per game (103.4).
The Bengals ran for only 62 yards as a team against the Steelers last Sunday after gouging the Panthers for 241 yards one week earlier. Even if you take that result with a grain of salt because Joe Mixon left in the first half of that divisional tilt, you can’t explain away how Alvin Kamara and the Saints were held to a mere 29 yards by Pittsburgh one game prior.
Ryan has averaged only 30 throws over the first two games of the Saturday era, but he was at over 42 throws a game with Reich at the helm. Bettors should anticipate Ryan landing somewhere between the two extremes out of necessity, whether it’s because Indy is trying to protect a lead or is playing catch up.
The passing yards will add up as he does so against a porous Pittsburgh defense that’s 31st in the NFL yards allowed per game through the air (272.1).
Prop: Over 233.5 passing yards (-120)
Matty melts
Ryan is still good enough to be a starter in the NFL, but Father Time is undefeated, and the Boston College product has clearly lost a step or two since his peak with the Atlanta Falcons. An opportunistic Steelers squad should force at least one interception in this spot.
The Colts’ offensive line has been dreadful in 2022, allowing an NFL-high 40 sacks through 11 games. Pittsburgh’s pass rush hasn’t been non existent this season (19 sacks, 26th in football), but it’s sorely missed all-time single-season sack leader T.J. Watt for all but three affairs. He’s likely licking his chops ahead of this matchup now that he’s back in full swing.
In spite of the Steelers’ lackluster quarterback attack, they’ve still been able to force a good deal of interceptions. In fact, only the Eagles and Bills have picked off more passes than Pittsburgh (13-12) in 2022.
As we mentioned above, Ryan — who has thrown nine interceptions compared to only 10 touchdowns this season — is likely to drop back early and often in this one, and that increases his chances of making a major mistake in primetime. The Over on this prop would be playable all the way up to -150.
Prop: Over 0.5 interceptions (-125)
Lacking that old-man strength
Just weeks after some NFL scouts claimed that Ryan’s arm is “shot,” oddsmakers are hanging a huge number on his longest pass completion on Monday Night Football. Prop bettors shouldn’t look a gift horse in the mouth, and grab the Under with glee.
Ryan has completed only two passes of 37 or more yards in 2022, and they both occurred in the first four weeks of the campaign. He’s gone five straight games without completing a pass for more than 35 yards.
Ryan’s most reliable target is Michael Pittman, whose season-long reception is a paltry 28 yards, and that came in Week 1. Alec Pierce has the Colts’ biggest grab of the season at 47 yards, but he’s been held to just four receptions over his last three games.
Over bettors’ best chance of cashing here might be on a missed tackle, but the Steelers are a solid 12th in that area this year. Anything above 34.5 yards for the longest pass completion would be acceptable for an Under wager.
Prop: Longest reception Under 36.5 (-115)
