Matthew Stafford Odds and MNF Props: Rams QB Airs It Out in Cincinnati

Our second game of Monday Night Football in Week 3 will take us to Cincinnati, where the Bengals will aim for their first win of the season and likely be without starting quarterback Joe Burrow.

On the other side, the Los Angeles Rams will look to pick up the pieces after a tough Week 2 loss against the San Francisco 49ers, where Matthew Stafford impressed for a second straight week.

What will Stafford have for us tonight? Let’s break his MNF odds down below.

Don't forget to look at our full-game Rams vs. Bengals predictions, as well as our MNF props column.

Matthew Stafford MNF prop picks

• Over 253.5 passing yds
• Stafford Over 275 passing yds + Nacua 70+ receiving yds

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Matthew Stafford MNF prop pick

Over 253.5 passing yards (-115)

It’s been so far, so good for Matthew Stafford in his quest to reestablish himself as an above-average passer in the NFL. Through two games, the Los Angeles Rams rank ninth in EPA per dropback and Stafford himself has put up some very impressive metrics. He ranks 10th in average intended air yards and ninth in expected completion percentage.

On top of that, through two games, the results have been there. The veteran signal-caller has gone for 300 yards in back-to-back games, throwing the ball 38 times for 334 yards in a Week 1 win over the Seahawks and going for 307 on 55 attempts in a great performance opposite the vaunted Niners defense. While he threw two picks in that game, he’s now put up an impressive 641 yards with just two picks against two respectable defenses.

The Cincinnati Bengals should represent a great matchup for Stafford, ranking just 21st in EPA per dropback and 28th in dropback success rate. While it doesn’t appear like a great matchup on the surface with just 391 yards against Cincinnati through two games, the two quarterbacks they shut down were Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson, who didn’t throw all that much given the identities of their respective teams.

The Rams should be ready to air it out against a Cincinnati defense that has looked flat. And considering it's 14th in pass play rate, we know this team is afraid to run the ball. That should work out pretty well on Monday, particularly when it comes to the Over on Stafford’s yards.

Prop: Over 253.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Matthew Stafford MNF same-game parlay

Stafford 275+ passing yards

Puka Nacua 70+ receiving yards

+245 at DraftKings

We expect Stafford to feast on Monday night against a shaky Bengals defense, but who will be his biggest beneficiary?

I normally don’t like siding with the public narrative and betting on a team’s top receiver, especially one this white hot, but we need to include Puka Nacua’s receiving total in this one. While we know he’s the target monster here — getting thrown to 20 times in Week 3 alone — he’s also going to draw a good matchup here against corner Chidobe Awuzie.

Cam Taylor-Britt, who will be the primary defender on Tutu Atwell, actually grades out as the team’s best corner according to Pro Football Focus, coming in 12 spots ahead of Awuzie after his performance last week.

Nacua is clearly a special talent who should have no issues getting to 60 yards if he receives even half as many targets as he’s been seeing. I’m looking to fade this Bengals defense big-time on Monday with a special nod to Nacua. Paired with Stafford's arm, we get nice odds on what’s a very attainable same-game parlay.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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