Matthew Stafford Odds and Wild Card Props: Homecoming a Success for Stafford

Matthew Stafford is back in the Motor City for the first time since being traded as his Lost Angeles Rams lock horns with the Detroit Lions tonight. Stafford was Detroit's starting quarterback for more than a decade and while he put up impressive numbers for the Lions, they played in a grand total of three playoff games — all losses.

They've entered the postseason in style by winning the NFC North and their Super Bowl odds sit at +1,800, significantly shorter than Stafford's Rams (+5,000). Wild Card odds for this game have the highest total of the weekend at 51.5, signaling that we could see a big day for Stafford.  

Let’s break down the best ways to bet on the Matt Stafford odds in our NFL picks for this Wild Card showdown.

Don't forget to check out our full Rams vs. Lions picks and predictions, as well as our Rams vs. Lions player props column for more NFL odds analysis.

Matthew Stafford Wild Card prop picks

• Longest pass completion Over 38.5 yards
• Over 276.5 passing yards/Kupp 6+ receptions/Rams Under 99.5 rush yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Matthew Stafford Wild Card prop pick

Longest Pass Completion Over 38.5 yards (-110)

While the Lions are short home favorites in this spot, they have an obvious weakness: pass defense. They finished the season 30th in the NFL in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.2) and 27th in yards allowed per game (247.4). 

Detroit's defense is significantly better against the run, holding opposing running backs to just 3.5 yards per rush attempt, so expect Rams coach Sean McVay to rely on Stafford to attack their vulnerable secondary instead.

Stafford and the Rams caught on fire to end the season and he's a QB that loves to attack deep. Per PFF, Stafford was third in the league in passing grade (97.8) on passes 20+ yards downfield and stud wide receivers like Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are more than capable of ripping off yards after the catch as well.

The O/U on Stafford's longest reception is set at 38.5 yards, a number he has surpassed in five of his last six games. Since Week 7, the Lions ranked 30th in the league in defensive dropback EPA and they routinely got torched deep.

Over their last eight games they've allowed a pass completion of at least 39 yards in seven of those contests. The only game during that span where they didn't came against the Saints back in Week 13 when they still surrendered two strikes of 30+ yards. 

Back Stafford to pick up big chunk plays in his return to Ford Field and take the Over 38.5 on his longest completion prop. 

Prop: Matthew Stafford longest pass completion Over 38.5 yards (-110 at DraftKings)

Matthew Stafford Wild Card same-game parlay

Matthew Stafford Over 276.5 passing yards

Cooper Kupp 6+ receptions

Rams Under 99.5 rushing yards

+450 at bet365

Unfortunately, most books won't allow us to include the longest completion prop in a SGP, but I'm also confident in Stafford going Over his passing yards total. Keep in mind that Stafford has eclipsed this number in four of his last five games, and the Lions allowed the last three quarterbacks they faced to throw for 411, 345, and 396 yards, respectively. 

Since I'm backing Stafford to throw for a ton of yards, it makes sense to bet on a Rams receiver to have a big game as well. That said, it's tough to pick between Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp since usually one of them has a big game while the other has a more quiet performance. 

I'm leaning towards Kupp in this game since the proven veteran was the Rams' most reliable weapon on their Super Bowl run two years ago. Nacua is a fantastic option but he's still a rookie and I expect Stafford to be more comfortable targeting Kupp when he needs a first down. 

The Lions also play man coverage at the 10th-highest rate in the league and Kupp sees a significant uptick in his target share against man (33.6%) compared to zone (19.7%). Kupp has also hauled in at least six passes in four of his last five games. 

As I previously mentioned, Detroit's defense has been solid at containing the run, allowing a league-low 65 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. I'm expecting plenty of pass attempts from Stafford, which should also mean fewer carries and yards on the ground from L.A.. 

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