Just three weeks into the 2022 NFL season there are only a pair of unbeaten teams remaining and one of them happens to be the upstart Miami Dolphins, who are surging up the Super Bowl odds board.
The Dolphins entered the season as Super Bowl longshots at +3,600 but have seen their Super Bowl futures price move all the way up to +1,500 after upsetting the championship-favorite Buffalo Bills in Week 3.
With a new head coach, the addition of an All-Pro wideout, and a young quarterback who has seemingly turned the corner, we break down Miami's Super Bowl 57 futures heading into Week 4.
Latest Miami Dolphins Super Bowl odds
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| To win Super Bowl | +1,500 |
| To win division | +230 |
| To make playoffs | -400 |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of September 27, 2022.
Latest Miami Dolphins odds movement
The Miami Dolphins began their rebuild with a 10-6 season in 2020 but regressed in 2021, losing seven of their first eight games (going 2-5-1 ATS over that span). They did end last year on a high note, going 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their final nine contests.
That momentum has carried into this year with consecutive wins against New England, Baltimore, and Buffalo, which have moved their Super Bowl odds from +3,600 to +1,500.
The Dolphins' offense has taken off this year and currently ranks first in the NFL in EPA/play. Signing former 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniels as head coach has paid immediate dividends as have the additions of three-time Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead and six-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Tyreek Hill.
However, the biggest improvement has come from within the organization with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa going from trade talk to MVP chatter. The former highly-touted prospect threw for 469 yards and six touchdowns in Miami's Week 2 comeback win against the Ravens and his chemistry with Hill and second-year wideout Jaylen Waddle continues to grow.
???? TUA TIME ????
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPointsApp) September 25, 2022
Tagovailoa throws a BOMB to Jaylen Waddle on 3rd & 22 for 45 yards!pic.twitter.com/9GpEi6XpgV
While the Dolphins have a perfect record at the moment, they looked far from invincible in the last two weeks. They needed an improbable 28-3 run in the fourth quarter to edge the Ravens in Week 2, and were a tad lucky against the Bills in their 21-19 victory on Sunday.
Buffalo outgained Miami 497-212 and had a 31-15 edge in first downs while controlling possession for more than 40 minutes. Although the Bills turned the ball over only once it was practically at their own goal line and was quickly turned into a Miami touchdown which helped the Fins go 3-3 in the red zone.
It says a lot about the mettle of this Dolphins team that they were able to grind out close victories against contenders in consecutive weeks, but surrendering 485 yards per game in those contests is troubling.
Despite Miami beating the Ravens and Bills, oddsmakers remain higher on both teams. The Bills remain the Super Bowl favorites at +450 and the Ravens are in seventh place on the futures board, just ahead of the Dolphins.
While the Dolphins and Bills have become contenders, the other two AFC East squads are plummeting down the board. The Jets have the third-worst Super Bowl odds at +30,000 and oddsmakers have soured on Bill Belichick and the Patriots, who have dropped from an opening number of +2,800 to +7,000.
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Miami Dolphins odds outlook
The Dolphins have a short week as they head to Cincinnati on Thursday to face off against last year's Super Bowl runners-up. The Bengals are coming off their first win of the year but are still a very dangerous squad and are 3.5-point favorites at home.
Dolphins’ HC Mike McDaniel said Tua Tagovailoa’s ankle also is sore from all of his “inter-trench warfare.”
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 26, 2022
The status of Tua is up in the air due to back and ankle soreness, although he isn't in concussion protocol despite briefly leaving the Bills game with what appeared to be a head injury. The Dolphins are also banged-up in other areas with three starters listed as questionable on both their offensive line and in their secondary.
After Thursday, the Dolphins' schedule looks relatively easy with the Jets, Vikings, Steelers, Lions, Bears, and Browns on the slate before their Week 11 bye.
Miami Dolphins upcoming schedule
Week 5 @ N.Y. Jets (Sunday, October 9, 1:00 p.m ET)
Week 6 vs. Minnesota (Sunday, October 16, 1:00 p.m. ET)
