The NFL Draft is becoming a bigger and bigger sports betting event with each passing year, with more draft markets to wager on than ever before.
Who will be selected first overall has always been a popular prop... But now we can bet on who will be selected second overall, third, and so on, which we can use to get a good feel for how the early part of the draft will play out.
So, what exactly would a mock draft — based solely on the 2023 NFL Draft odds — look like?
Well, you don’t have to wonder about that anymore. I mock the Top 10 of this year's draft, listing the favorites to go at each position.
NFL Mock Draft 2023: Top 10 Odds-Based Picks
All odds courtesy of bet365, April 26, 2023.
No. 1 (Carolina Panthers): Bryce Young, QB, Alabama (-900)
Some steam this week on Will Levis to go No. 1 dropped the number on Young to go the Carolina Panthers. That said, Young is still the -900 favorite to be the first name called on Thursday. Young was my QB1 coming into this process, thanks to the combination of his arm strength, mobility, playmaking ability, and intangibles — and it looks like Carolina agrees.
No. 2 (Houston Texans): Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech (+137)
It's not just the No. 1 overall pick that has seen some action. First, it was rumored the Houston Texans' draft board had leaked and they weren't interested in a QB. But now it sounds like it won't even be consensus top defender Will Anderson in this spot if the Texans stay away from the QB position, as Red Raiders pass rusher Wilson is now the favorite to go No. 2. While I think Anderson is the better player, Wilson more closely resembles a Nick Bosa-type defensive end that DeMeco Ryans coached in San Francisco.
No. 3 (Arizona Cardinals): C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State (+300)
There are no trades in the odds mock, so C.J. Stroud goes to the Arizona Cardinals. This means it’s more than likely that Arizona trades this pick to a QB-needy team like Las Vegas or Tennessee. Stroud was the favorite to go first overall immediately following the Panthers trade, thanks to outstanding offseason workouts, and of course, all the stats he put up at Ohio State. But the rumor mill has (unwarrantedly) been unkind to Stroud and has seen his odds take a dip. Stroud throws the prettiest ball in this class.
* Paris Johnson and Will Anderson are also co-favorites here at +300.
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No. 4 (Indianapolis Colts): Will Levis, QB, Kentucky (+130)
The Indianapolis Colts need a quarterback. In the odds mock, they have two options available to them: Kentucky’s Will Levis and Florida’s Anthony Richardson. Levis has been the market's hot name in the week heading into the draft. He might have the biggest arm in the class but has issues with accuracy, decision-making, and pocket presence. It would make for an interesting selection.
No. 5 (Seattle Seahawks): Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia (+100)
Carter is maybe the most intriguing prospect in the draft. Some may have Carter at the top of their draft boards when it comes to talent alone. But legal issues have put a red flag next to his name. However, if there's a team that believes they can handle those issues it's the Seattle Seahawks. This selection also fills a big need for their roster.
No. 6 (Detroit Lions): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois (-120)
At -120 to go the No. 6 to the Detroit Lions, Witherspoon is the first chalk favorite on the board since Young at No. 1. Cornerback was already a need for Detroit before they traded former No. 3-overall pick Jeff Okudah. Witherspoon is getting the nod over Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez thanks to being the more physical of two... or as Dan Campbell would say, “he’s got that dawg in him.”
No. 7 (Las Vegas Raiders): Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon (+275)
According to the odds, Gonzalez won’t have to wait long. The Las Vegas Raiders need to improve their secondary and Gonzalez is the top CB on my draft board. He has elite size and athleticism, with fluid hips and great ball skills. Simply put, he's a traditional lockdown corner. That said, when the favorite is +275 you can't be really sure of what's going to happen. This pick is one of the bigger mysteries in the Top 10.
No. 8 (Atlanta Falcons): Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas (+240)
Honestly, if this happens I’ll be a little stunned. Is Bijan Robinson a Top-3 talent in this draft? Yes. Would Robinson with Drake London and Kyle Pitts be stupid fun? Also yes. But the Atlanta Falcons have so many more pressing needs that selecting a running back in this spot — in a deep RB class — seems like a mistake. Maybe look at someone else for some more value further down the board.
No. 9 (Chicago Bears): Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State (+300)
This selection would be a hit with Chicago Bears fans. Protecting Justin Fields is a must and the Ohio State product is arguably the top tackle in the draft. He's athletic with great size, allowing just two sacks all season, and also has the positional versatility to play inside. He's also linked to the Cardinals at No. 3 and could be gone by this time on Thursday.
* Jalen Carter and Darnell Wright are co-favorites here too (+300)...but Carter is gone and Johnson is the higher-rated prospect.
No. 10 (Philadelphia Eagles): Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern (+240)
Some have been saying this is a luxury pick for the Eagles, and have linked it to Bijan Robinson. Luckily, the Eagles are saved from themselves in the odds mock with Robinson already gone. That said, I think Howie Roseman is smarter than that and an edge like Nolan Smith, or an offensive lineman to protect their investment in Jalen Hurts makes much more sense. They go for the latter here and take Skoronski. The Northwestern product is arguably the most pro-ready lineman in the draft. Despite the thought he may have to kick inside due to arm length, Roseman will actually love that positional versatility.
Odds for Top 5 draft positions
| Player | No. 1 odds | No. 2 odds | No. 3 odds | No. 4 odds | No. 5 odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | -1,500 | +600 | +5,000 | +8,000 | +12,500 |
| Will Anderson | +20,000 | +350 | +300 | +400 | +350 |
| C.J. Stroud | +2,000 | +600 | +300 | +250 | +700 |
| Will Levis | +800 | +200 | +800 | +150 | +1,400 |
| Tyree Wilson | +20,000 | +137 | +333 | +1,600 | +500 |
| Devon Witherspoon | +25,000 | OTB | +4,000 | +4,000 | +2,000 |
| Christian Gonzalez | OTB | OTB | +4,000 | +5,000 | +2,000 |
| Bijan Robinson | +40,000 | OTB | +10,000 | OTB | OTB |
| Peter Skoronski | OTB | OTB | +2,800 | OTB | +4,000 |
| Paris Johnson | OTB | OTB | +300 | OTB | +4,000 |
