We’re down to the NFL’s Final Four, though it’s safe to say most of us have yet to process the Detroit Lions getting bounced and Mark Andrews failing to squeeze that catch for a 2-point conversion.
What we’re left with are a pair of absolute dandies, including an all-NFC East battle between the Commanders and Eagles.
To cap it, we’ve got a repeat challenger to the Patrick Mahomes throne, with MVP-level stud Josh Allen trying to finally break through to his first big game.
Let’s run down my NFL picks for these two playoff games.
Conference Championship moneyline picks
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Commanders vs  Eagles |
(+230) |
 Bills vs  Chiefs |
(+105) |
Lines courtesy of DraftKings as of 1-22.
Expert Conference Championship moneyline picks
Commanders vs. Eagles: Commanders (+230 at DraftKings)
To me, picking the Washington Commanders to cover is a no-brainer, but to win outright?
There are two major factors why I’m choosing a rookie quarterback to make the Super Bowl for the first time.
The first is Jayden Daniels is on a heater that we’ve not seen out of prime pivots, let alone a guy playing in Game 20 as a pro. Daniels has been surgical, going on the road and playing mistake-free football. He has zero turnovers, has been sacked once, and is completing 69.7% of his passes for 567 yards and four TDs.
To go into Detroit and go point-for-point with the NFL scoring leaders was bananas. He’s been awesome.
He’s also shown the Philadelphia Eagles what their nightmares could look like, as Daniels threw for five TD’s in a 36-33 win in Week 16 to keep them in the playoff chase. Sure, Jalen Hurts was concussed early, but Daniels did it to one of the best defenses in the league.
The second reason is Philadelphia has marched through the playoffs on Saquon Barkley’s legs and an overpowering defense — but it still hasn’t been forced to throw the ball.
Hurts is still 41 yards short of 300 passing yards for the playoffs, and at some point, you’d expect him to come through.
Washington was third-worst vs. the run this year, but it should be selling out at the line and daring Hurts to beat it with his arm. I don’t think he can.
There’s a path to where Philly falls behind early (as Detroit did) and might need to abandon the run game. If that happens, Daniels will outplay Hurts for the win.
Bills vs. Chiefs: Bills (+105 at DraftKings)
The Kansas City Chiefs simply don’t beat themselves. They have now gone eight straight games without a giveaway, and they’re just too crafty in extending drives, getting key conversions, and putting up enough points to always be in games.
In these playoffs, the Buffalo Bills have sort of been playing just like the Chiefs. Josh Allen is a Herculean game manager, deadly in short-yardage runs, but he’s basically a move-the-chains-and-get-some-points kind of guy.
His numbers have reflected that: 399 yards passing, two TDs, 66 rush yards, and two scores (and the biggie: no turnovers). For them to move on, though, I think he’s going to have to be the ultra-version we’ve come to know him by.
K.C. defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo seems to call up the right blitz package to cause mass chaos, so Allen will be forced to make a bunch of plays off script for the Bills to be successful.
If he can take advantage, Patrick Mahomes will have to manufacture ways to keep up with them. Remember, they scored 30 points twice all season and needed OT to get there in one of them. Buffalo averaged 30.9 points per game in the regular season.
The Bills’ defense isn’t a standout, but they showed they can commit to stopping the run, as they did in the first half vs Baltimore’s Derrick Henry.
Their depleted secondary will be tested, but they don’t really have to worry about getting beat over the top because Mahomes rarely even looks past the second level in his progressions.
I don’t think Buffalo’s regular-season win over K.C. matters, save only for the fact it showed us what we’d already been thinking: Mahomes is still the best player in the NFL, but Allen is currently the more dynamic and better equipped to be a one-man gang.
This one has the makings of an instant classic, with Allen finally stepping into the Super Bowl.
Covers NFL betting tools
- NFL odds
- NFL picks
- NFL player props
- Super Bowl 59 odds
- Best NFL betting sites
- This week’s NFL matchups
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
