Save for Commanders-Bucs, there was very little "wild" about NFL Wild Card weekend.
The Chargers did Chargers things, Denver just looked happy to be there, and Sam Darnold turned into a pumpkin at the most inopportune time.
No matter what else happens in the Divisional Round, though, we will be treated to a mega matchup with instant-classic potential when the Ravens visit the Bills.
We’ll get to that main dish shortly. Let’s run down moneyline odds for each playoff game, along with my favorite NFL picks. Note: things may get a little chalky again.
Divisional Round moneyline picks
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Texans vs  Chiefs |
(-440) |
 Commanders vs  Lions |
(-500) |
 Rams vs  Eagles |
(-278) |
 Ravens vs  Bills |
(-105) |
Lines courtesy of DraftKings as of 1-15.
Expert Divisional Round moneyline picks
Texans vs. Chiefs: Chiefs (-440)
The Kansas City Chiefs have not played a meaningful game since clinching the top seed in the AFC on Christmas Day. But don’t make a big deal out of this one; Kansas City is good and will likely play better than they did during a 15-2 campaign dotted with close calls.
No one is better coming off a bye week than Andy Reid, and while Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson is going to win MVP, Patrick Mahomes looms over everything.
The Houston Texans possess an elite defense, as they showed in a 32-12 thumping of the Chargers. They rank fourth in yards allowed per play, only surrender 201.6 yards passing per game, and rank fifth in sacks.
K.C.’s defense is not as great, but they’re inside the Top 10 in yards and rush yards allowed, though a middling 18th against the pass. If Houston wants an upset, CJ Stroud is going to have to level up to a gear he hasn’t hit all season.
Besides, stats don’t matter with this iteration of the Chiefs. All that matters is they win.
Commanders vs. Lions: Lions (-500)
We last saw the Detroit Lions dismantling the Vikings, which seems a little less impressive now that the Rams did the same thing.
Now, they face legitimate giant killer threat Jayden Daniels, who played beyond his rookie status in a road win over the Buccaneers.
But even if Detroit’s defense reverts back to the unit that allowed 34+ points in three of the previous four, can Daniels and the Washington Commanders match the Lions’ offense TD for TD?
Detroit led the league in scoring at 33.2 points per game, and they’re always pushing pedal to the metal. David Montgomery (knee) is also expected to return, and that adds even more layers to the offense.
ESPN research says this will be the sixth time in the Super Bowl era a rookie QB faces a team that had at least a share of the best record in the league. Only one of the previous five rookies won: Joe Flacco and the Ravens in 2008 against the 13-3 Tennessee Titans.
It’s not happening in Motown.
Covers NFL betting tools
- NFL odds
- NFL picks
- NFL player props
- Super Bowl 59 odds
- Best NFL betting sites
- This week’s NFL matchups
Rams vs. Eagles: Eagles -278
At some point, the Philadelphia Eagles’ passing offense is going to have to come out of the shadows and contribute to what is looking like a Super Bowl-worthy defense. I’m just not sure the Los Angeles Rams are the ones to force them to do it.
Philly, who ranked second in the league in points allowed, held the Packers to just 10 points last week. Jordan Love was picked off three times, part of four takeaways for the game (though that kickoff fumble was shady).
But on the other side of the ball, Jalen Hurts threw for just 131 yards and two scores, and, if not for Saquon Barkley keeping things moving, there’d be a lot more issues than AJ Brown reading a book on the sidelines.
The Rams’ defense made life hell for Sam Darnold, sacking him nine times, including a scoop and score, while picking him off once.
Offensively, L.A. does have the better pivot in this one in Matt Stafford, but even with weapons like Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Kyren Williams, their offense looks disjointed at times.
If there is a major upset this weekend, this would be it, but I think the Eagles survive another week before their bubble finally bursts.
Bills vs. Ravens: Bills -105
And we wrap up the weekend with the main event.
All Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen need in their careers is to climb to the top of the mountain, and maybe it’s fitting one knocks off the other before having to face Mahomes to get to a Super Bowl.
Jackson doesn’t have to be an MVP-level wrecking ball each snap now, as Derrick Henry is an absolute stud and a luxury to hand off to, even if it’s to just settle things down and stay on schedule.
Henry shredded the Steelers — a Top 6 rushing defense — to the tune of 186 yards and two scores, and he also gave the Buffalo Bills a taste in Week 4 with a season-best 199 yards and TD in a 35-10 romp.
And that’s the math equation the Baltimore Ravens are forcing teams to try to solve: where to allocate the resources. Too much on Henry, and Jackson runs and throws wild. Contain Jackson, and Henry sees daylight.
On the other side, it’s all about Josh Allen, the overwhelming MVP favorite, who is the system in Buffalo.
His greatness is helped by Joe Brady’s ability to somehow add balance. Last week against Denver, he leaned on a solid offensive line and James Cook, which at times makes Allen an overqualified game manager.
But that won’t be the case Sunday. Allen will have to unleash hell to get the Bills to the AFC title game against a Baltimore defense that has morphed from a disaster to one of the top defenses in the NFL in the home stretch of the season.
This one is going to be so good, and it’s a virtual pick-em, so I’ll lean on the team with home field advantage in what should be a beauty.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
