If the AFC East were The Beatles, the New England Patriots would definitely be Ringo.
After decades of dominance in the division, the Patriots now find themselves behind three very strong rivals in the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins, with Aaron Rodgers’ arrival creating a notable gap between New England and those foes.
New England has one of the biggest contrasts in terms of season win total vs. look-ahead NFL odds, with NFL futures projecting 7.5 victories (Under -120) while setting the Patriots as favorites in only three games with another contest tabbed as a pick’em. That’s a four-win difference.
There’s optimism in Foxborough, given Bill O’Brien has grabbed the wheel of this offense and Bill Belichick’s defense is still projected to be among the stingiest in the NFL, but working against those improvements is a schedule that many analysts rank toughest in the land.
We’re shipping out to Boston for my 2023 New England Patriots NFL betting preview.
New England Patriots futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +6,500 | +5,500 | +6,000 |
| Win conference | +3,500 | +3,000 | +3,500 |
| Win division | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| Make playoffs | +250 | +250 | +250 |
| O7.5 wins | +140 | +116 | +110 |
| U7.5 wins | -160 | -142 | -130 |
Best futures bet: Finish fourth in AFC East (-120)
Sorry, what?
I know you want to give the Patriots the respect that Belichick and Mr. Kraft deserve, but really? All previews, odds, projections, and tea leaves point to the Pats finishing fourth in the AFC East.
Buffalo, Miami, and New York are on track for double-digit wins while New England would be lucky to hit eight victories, according to the juiced Under on its win total. The look-ahead lines paint an even uglier picture for the Patriots.
And it’s not just the divisional games stacking up against New England. This team faces non-divisional challenges from the likes of Philadelphia, Dallas, New Orleans, the L.A. Chargers, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Denver.
Sure, the rest of the AFC East has a tough road too with SOS rankings all inside the Top 5, but at least those teams have proven passers and talent-rich rosters around them. Mac Jones is a year behind schedule thanks to New England’s science experiment on offense last season.
Best NFL bonuses
New Users
Up to $1,500 bonus bets back if your first bet doesn’t win! Sign Up Now
New Users
Bet $50 and get $150 in credits to Fanatics.com!
Use Covers code: JERSEYOFFER
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
New England Patriots betting overview
What will win bets: Coaching
When I think about Matt Patricia and Joe Judge running the Patriots offense in 2022, my mind immediately goes to the scene from “Zoolander” in which Derek and Hansel are trying to get the files from the computer.
Luckily for Pats bettors, the front office brought back former offensive staple Bill O’Brien, who not only has deep New England roots but an Alabama connection after serving two years at Mac Jones’ alma mater. O’Brien has generated offense wherever he’s roamed and any change from last year is a move in the right direction.
While New England may have the fourth-best quarterback in the AFC East, it still has its No. 1 head coach. Bill Belichick is a mastermind of game planning and his defense has been Top 5 in DVOA in three of the past four years, including sitting second in that advanced metric in 2022.
His defensive staff didn’t lose anyone to other jobs, including much-heralded linebacker coach and top assistant Jared Mayo, who’s on a head coaching track whenever he feels like taking it. The defense was a game-changer with 30 takeaways and seven touchdowns scored by the stop unit last season.
The real feather in the cap of this coaching staff hides in the derivative markets. The halftime coaching adjustments saw New England flip a -2.0 average first-half margin to +3.2 in the final two frames, which led to a 10-7 mark against second-half spreads in 2022 — compared to 7-9-1 ATS overall.
In fact, the Pats are 30-20-1 against the second-half spreads the past three seasons (60%) vs. 24-26-1 ATS on the full-game spreads (48%).
What will lose bets: Offense
Just because Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum are gonzo, it doesn’t mean O’Brien is an instant fix for this offense.
Stacked up against their AFC East brethren, the Patriots have a pop-gun attack behind the stunted growth of Mac Jones. While the other attacks get more complex, New England keeps trying to dumb everything down.
Jones has some OK options in terms of receivers, adding JuJu Smith-Schuster as a catch-and-run threat along a solid tight end twinning of Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki and deep threat DeVante Parker. The jury is still out on other guys like Kendrick Bourne and Tyquan Thornton.
This beast of a schedule sees New England in a dozen games against defenses rated Top 15 in the preseason polls, including eight against Top-10 stop units.
New England’s defense bailed out the offense a lot in 2022. The Patriots finished second with 30 takeaways and scored seven touchdowns — 18% of the total touchdowns scored as a team. Those forced turnovers gave the offense bonus possessions and excellent field position.
If the defense can’t provide that same assist for the offense, New England is going to come up short of the spread most Sundays.
New England Patriots 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Philadelphia Eagles |
+4.5 |
| 2 | vs  Miami Dolphins |
+2.5 |
| 3 | @  New York Jets |
+4.5 |
| 4 | @  Dallas Cowboys |
+4.5 |
| 5 | vs  New Orleans Saints |
-2.5 |
| 6 | @  Las Vegas Raiders |
+1 |
| 7 | vs  Buffalo Bills |
+3.5 |
| 8 | @ Miami Dolphins |
+4 |
| 9 | vs  Washington Commanders |
-3.5 |
| 10 | vs  Indianapolis Colts |
-4 |
| 11 | BYE | |
| 12 | @  New York Giants |
+1.5 |
| 13 | vs  Los Angeles Chargers |
+1.5 |
| 14 | @  Pittsburgh Steelers |
+2 |
| 15 | vs  Kansas City Chiefs |
+4 |
| 16 | @  Denver Broncos |
+2 |
| 17 | @ Buffalo Bills |
+6.5 |
| 18 | vs New York Jets |
+1 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings.
Considering the look-ahead lines and the Patriots’ daunting calendar, it takes creativity to count up eight wins for Belichick & Co. Even in the games in which New England is laying the points, oddsmakers don’t stray too far from a field goal.
My 2023 power ratings tried to balance both sides of the argument, but I’m ultimately down on New England and have it 25th overall (32.35/100) — just ahead of some of the real stinkers in the NFL. That puts it well off the pace in the AFC East, with Buffalo at No. 5, New York at No. 12, and Miami at No. 13.
An 0-4 start to the season is quite possible with Philadelphia and Miami at home, and the Jets and Dallas coming on the road. The Week 1 spread vs. the Eagles is sitting between Patriots +4.5 and +5 while my ratings forecast a projected handicap of +10.71. I told you I’m down on New England.
Most of the Patriots’ best shots at wins come in away games, visiting Las Vegas, the New York Giants, Pittsburgh, Denver, and traveling to Frankfurt to take on Indianapolis (sorry Germany) in Week 10. New England is just 11-14-1 ATS as a visitor in the post-Brady era.
The home stretch of the schedule does little favors for anyone holding on to an Over 7.5 wins ticket (see more in “Trend to know” below). New England hosts the Chargers, visits the Steelers, is home to the Chiefs, and visits Denver and Buffalo before a finale at home with the Jets. All of those foes could be fighting for their playoff lives.
New England Patriots schedule spot bet
Week 17: @ Buffalo
As mentioned above, the Patriots run the gauntlet in the closing six games of the schedule. That includes a stop in Orchard Park on New Year’s Eve.
This annual trip to Buffalo is New England’s second straight road game after playing in the energy-sapping air in Denver the week prior.
It’s also the team’s third road stop in four weeks after playing at Pittsburgh on Thursday night in Week 14 before hosting Kansas City on Monday Night Football in Week 15. What’s more, it’s the Patriots' fourth road tilt in a six-game test that starts against the Giants at MetLife on November 26.
Buffalo, an early 6.5-point favorite in front of what will be an insane crowd at Highmark Stadium, has a one-day rest edge after playing in L.A. on Saturday in Week 16.
My ratings are calling for a point spread of Bills -12.83 which isn’t out of the question by the time we ring in 2024, considering the path ahead for the Patriots.
Star power: Mac Jones props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | +6,500 | +6,000 | +8,000 |
| OPOY | +15,000 | +20,000 | OTB |
| Passing leader | +8,000 | +5,000 | +8,000 |
| Passing TD leader | +6,500 | +5,000 | +7,000 |
| O19.5 pass TD | +110 | -110 | -115 |
| U19.5 pass TD | -130 | -116 | -115 |
| Pass yards total | 3,199.5 | 3,175.5 | 3,000.5 |
Best prop: Over 19.5 passing touchdowns (+110)
Bill O’Brien will instantly give Mac Jones a shot in the arm, as will a hefty receiving corps. While New England may not have the elite playmakers that its AFC East rivals flaunt, it does have a size advantage over most defenders.
The tight end combo of Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki stands 6-foot-5 and 6-foot-6, respectively. Receivers DeVante Parker, Tyquan Thornton, Kendrick Bourne, and JuJu Smith-Schuster all stand 6-foot-1 or taller.
Kansas City enjoyed a similar height advantage last year and look how that played out. Jones is no Mahomes, but finding those big bodies in the red zone can be as simple as tossing it up and letting those towering targets go get it.
The 2023 full-season projections for Jones are right on this touchdown total, with a few short of 19.5 and a few over 19.5.
After tallying 22 touchdowns in his rookie season, Jones finished with only 14 passing strikes in 14 outings in 2022 after a surge toward the end of the season saw him connect for seven TDs in the final three regular season games.
New England finished with the worst red-zone touchdown percentage in the league (42.22%) last season and the red-zone passing ranked 28th in DVOA at Football Outsiders. Those scoring metrics will improve with O’Brien helping Mac’s maturation and those big bodies winning jump balls.
New England Patriots betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
The New England offense has to be better in 2023. Gone is the sideshow of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge and in is Bill O’Brien, who should be remembered as a well-respected offensive mind and not the head of the Texans.
Mac Jones will have a healthy DeVante Parker and JuJu Smith-Schuster is an upgrade. He also has a pair of great tight ends in Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki who didn’t have a role in Mike McDaniel’s offense in Miami last year. Combine that with one of the best pass-catching backs in Rhamondre Stevenson and this is a competent passing game being led by an experienced mind in O’Brien.
Now add in one of the hardest SOS in football and Jones could be playing plenty of games from behind and padding those passing yards. His passing yard total is currently 3,175.5 at FanDuel compared to 3,350.5 at bet365. Losing his starting job again is in the range of outcomes however thanks to the difficult schedule but the potential for plenty of garbage yards is also in the range.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
The Patriots have been stuck in purgatory since Tom Brady’s departure and this could be the season where the wheels fall off.
Unlike the Jets and Dolphins, they failed to make any sort of splash in the offseason and clearly have the worst quarterback situation in the division in what will be a make-or-break season for Mac Jones.
Once upon a time, New England could easily succeed without a lot of talent on their roster, but they can no longer get by on the greatness of Bill Belichick because, quite simply, the 71-year-old might not be so great anymore.
New England Patriots trend to know
During the glory days in New England, Bill Belichick terrorized sportsbooks in the cold winter months. Not only did his Patriots win 75.5% of their games from Week 13 onward, but they also covered those spreads at a 58% clip — facing some lofty chalk along the way.
However, in the post-Brady landscape, Belichick’s late-season dominance has dissipated along with those December profits that used to puff up the wallets of Patriots bettors just before Christmas.
Since 2020, the Pats are a “Grinchy” 6-10 SU and 5-11 ATS from Week 13 to Week 18. That includes a 2-5 SU and 1-5 ATS mark in 2022.
No team in the NFL has a final stretch as scary as New England in 2023 (and three of those games are in primetime). The Patriots are underdogs in each of their closing six contests and if my projections are true, there will be plenty more points tacked on by the time you start your Xmas shopping.
Patriots late-season games
- Week 13 vs. L.A. Chargers (+2)
- Week 14 @ Pittsburgh (+2, TNF)
- Week 15 vs. Kansas City (+6, MNF)
- Week 16 @ Denver (+3, SNF)
- Week 17 @ Buffalo (+6.5)
- Week 18 vs. N.Y. Jets (+1)
