When the smoke clears, I will have finished 32 of these NFL betting previews. It will be tough to find one team among those 32 more centric to the narrative of an entire conference than the New Orleans Saints.
That’s right, the Saints are the key to the rest of the NFC.
New Orleans enters 2023 as the favorite to win the NFC South, despite a strong sharp push for rival Atlanta. The season win totals are as high as 9.5 for NOLA but the Under is shaded heavily. The look-ahead lines have the Saints as favorites in 10 games with two others listed as a pick’em, and the five underdog spreads all come in at a field goal or less.
NFL futures say the Saints are set up for success, which could mean a potential two teams from the NFC South making a postseason push if NFL odds are right about the Falcons. That could bump a contending team from the NFC West, East, or North out of the mix.
But should New Orleans continue to crumble (watching its wins decline from 13, 12, nine, and seven the last four seasons) and Derek Carr goes bust in the Bayou, then a lot of those projected wins flip to losses. The NFC reshuffles and those Super Bowl odds are playing out much differently for a bunch of teams.
I look at how it all boils down in the Big Easy with my 2023 New Orleans Saints NFL betting preview.
New Orleans Saints futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +3,000 | +4,000 | +3,500 |
| Win conference | +1,200 | +1,700 | +1,400 |
| Win division | +120 | +130 | +105 |
| Make playoffs | -190 | -188 | -180 |
| O9.5 wins | +105 | +114 | +105 |
| U9.5 wins | -125 | -140 | -125 |
Best futures bet: Saints to finish second in the NFC South (+220 at DraftKings)
The Falcons’ win total is 8.5 and shaded heavily to the Over (nine wins), while the Saints have a total of 9.5 shaded heavily to the Under (nine wins). Look-ahead lines for these two division rivals are very close as well, with NOLA getting one more game as a favorite.
The start to the schedule is, however, much tougher for the Saints compared to Atlanta. New Orleans plays four of its first six games on the road in a tight window while the Falcons have only one true road game in that same span (UK game vs. Jacksonville in Week 4).
Momentum can mean everything and the Saints might not be marching in the first two months. Atlanta doesn’t need its quarterback to be outstanding to win games, while New Orleans is putting a lot of stock in Derek Carr for 2023.
While I rate the Saints higher than Atlanta (11th versus 18th) and they do hold home field for the Week 18 finale with the Falcons, I see the NFC South coming down to a photo finish and those wins and losses in September and October could be the difference.
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New Orleans Saints betting overview
What will win bets: Pass defense
The once-vaunted run defense of the Saints cracked in 2022, but New Orleans still ranked No. 8 in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders due to its ability to put the clamps on rival air attacks.
The Saints — who were No. 6 in Pass Defense DVOA and allowed the eighth-lowest EPA per dropback — gave up the second-fewest passing yards per game and boasted the third-lowest completion percentage (60.07%).
New Orleans kept everything in front of it and leaned into a talented secondary to limit explosive plays. The Saints could have done a better job creating turnovers, as the team snatched only seven interceptions after ranking near the top of the league in INTs the previous two seasons.
Those takeaways will tick up in 2023 given the lineup of opponents for NOLA. The defense faces one of the weakest strengths of schedule out there — taking on a number of rookies, second-year QBs, and bottom-tier veterans.
What will lose bets: Offensive uncertainty
The puzzle piece fits for Derek Carr and Pete Carmichael’s playbook, with the QB familiar with the West Coast style schemes. Carr is an improvement from New Orleans’ quarterback situation over the past few years — which saw flashes of brilliance from Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton — but also endured some real lows.
There are questions about Carr’s ability to find his form after getting run out of Las Vegas, and the shaky pass protection we saw from New Orleans in 2022 won’t help answer those queries. Preseason polls have the Saints’ offensive line ranked 24th, and while consistency in personnel is there, this veteran core is slipping and finished 20th in adjusted sack rate at Football Outsiders.
Wide receiver Michael Thomas has played 10 games in the past two years due to multiple ailments. When healthy, he’s an instant first down in tight spots. Second-year WR Chris Olave had a solid pro debut considering the trio of QBs, but if Thomas can’t stay on the field, defenses will just send extra coverage at Olave.
And then we come to running back Alvin Kamara. He’s suspended for the first three games of 2023 for his infamous Las Vegas elevator fight, taking away NOLA’s most versatile player. Kamara’s pass-catching is complimented by the addition of downhill RB Jamaal Williams, who’s coming off a career year in 2022 (1,066 yards and 17 TDs) but won’t get close to those numbers in New Orleans.
There are a lot of “ifs” and “buts” with this offensive unit, and faith is being put into players that haven’t performed, be it on the field or due to injuries. The Saints' offense went from scoring 25 points per game in the first eight outings to just over two touchdowns in the final nine contests.
Even with a slew of dreadful defenses on deck, the look-ahead totals aren’t running wild with Carr under center, as New Orleans’ average Over/Under number is around 41.5 points. This team was one of the best Under plays in 2022 (6-11 O/U), with the offense turning into a no-show and the defense keeping foes honest.
New Orleans Saints 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Tennessee Titans |
-3 |
| 2 | @  Carolina Panthers |
-1 |
| 3 | @  Green Bay Packers |
+1 |
| 4 | vs  Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
-5.5 |
| 5 | @  New England Patriots |
+2.5 |
| 6 | @  Houston Texans |
-3 |
| 7 | vs  Jacksonville Jaguars |
-1 |
| 8 | @  Indianapolis Colts |
-1.5 |
| 9 | vs  Chicago Bears |
-2.5 |
| 10 | @  Minnesota Vikings |
+2.5 |
| 11 | BYE | |
| 12 | @  Atlanta Falcons |
-1 |
| 13 | vs  Detroit Lions |
-1 |
| 14 | vs Carolina Panthers |
-3.5 |
| 15 | vs  New York Giants |
-2.5 |
| 16 | @  Los Angeles Rams |
-1 |
| 17 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
-1.5 |
| 18 | vs Atlanta Falcons |
-2.5 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
The Saints’ schedule is rated the weakest by many preseason polls and if you look at the list of opponents, it’s not tough to see why.
The NFC South is a bit of a shit show in the post-Brady era and non-conference competition from the AFC South is icing on top of this cupcake slate. A number of teams in flux find their way on New Orleans’ calendar with the toughest non-division tests coming via Jacksonville, Minnesota, Detroit, and the Giants.
With that butter-soft sked comes optimistic win totals and look-ahead lines. As mentioned, the win total is leaning toward nine victories while bookmakers have NOLA set as the chalk in 10 games with two others at a pick’em.
However, the uncertainty around key members of the offense and the credibility of this coaching staff has 15 of those 17 spreads within a field goal (-3 to +3), which means many big sweats for the Big Easy. In Year 1 under Dennis Allen, NOLA went 5-6 straight up and against the spread in one-score games (eight points or less).
Add it all up and my NFL power ratings place the Saints just outside of the Top 10, ranked 11th (60.29/100) overall. It makes them the class of the NFC South and puts them on par with the Jets and Dolphins in terms of contenders, despite New Orleans’ Super Bowl odds being much longer (+3,500).
We’ll find out if my ratings are worth a damn in Week 1 with the Saints hosting Tennessee in a non-conference clash. With Kamara’s suspension expected when the odds opened, this line has bounced between NOLA -3 and -3.5 this summer. My ratings — which are high on New Orleans and low on Tennessee — spit out a spread closer to a touchdown without adjusting for Kamara’s absence. That would still make this spread NOLA -5.5.
After the season opener, New Orleans ventures on a tough trek with a pair of back-to-back road stops — four road games in the next five weeks. In fact, the front of the calendar has the Saints as visitors in six of their first 10 contests. The team went just 3-5 SU and ATS away from the Crescent City in 2022.
The second half of the schedule is much friendlier, as New Orleans plays four of its final seven in the Superdome with added situational edges. It hosts Carolina for its third straight away game in Week 14 and Atlanta for its third road game in four weeks in the season finale.
The team ventures outdoors only once in the final 13 games of 2023, playing in the mild climate at Tampa Bay in Week 17. All in all, the Saints play outdoors just four times and three of those open-air venues show up in the first five weeks when the weather is great.
New Orleans Saints schedule spot bet
Week 7: VS Jacksonville
New Orleans’ schedule has plenty of cushion, but Week 7 puts the team in a hard spot at home against the Jaguars.
This is a Thursday Night Football showcase, meaning a tight turnaround for both sides. However, with NOLA playing at Carolina on Monday Night Football in Week 2, this will be New Orleans’ sixth game in a span of 31 days. Add in four road dates to that stretch and there will be very little time for practice, prep, and recovery.
The look-ahead lines have the Saints as 1-point home underdogs. My NFL ratings produce a spread of closer to a pick’em before any adjustments for the squeeze of this situational spot.
Getting points inside the Superdome was a rare sight under Sean Payton (Saints went 9-8 SU and 10-7 ATS as regular season home pups from 2006 to 2021). However, New Orleans was 1-3 SU and ATS as a home pup in Dennis Allen’s first year.
Star power: Derek Carr props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | +5,000 | +3,000 | +4,000 |
| OPOY | OTB | +15,000 | OTB |
| Pass yards leader | +3,500 | +2,800 | +1,800 |
| Pass TD leader | +6,500 | +4,000 | +5,500 |
| O22.5 pass TD | +110* | -112 | -115 |
| U22.5 pass TD | -130* | -112 | -115 |
| Pass yards total | 3,700.5 | 3,625.5 | 3,550.5 |
*Pass TD total is 23.5 at DraftKings
Best prop: Derek Carr Over 3,550.5 passing yards (-115 at Caesars)
Carr’s yardage props differ greatly from book to book, with this Caesars' total as the lowest.
Player projections all come in way over this modest passing production, which is tempered due to Carr’s recent injury issues and the uncertainty of the skill players around him (namely Michael Thomas). That said, the gap between forecast and Over/Under is too wide to ignore.
The consensus yardage from Carr is just north of 3,800. When you consider the Saints play 13 of their 17 games indoors on fast tracks and take on only one defense ranked inside the Top 10 in preseason polls — and 10 others rated 20th or worse — you can get behind Carr to go Over this passing yards prop.
New Orleans Saints betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
The Saints won’t face a single team that ranks in the Top 10 in betting odds for the Super Bowl this season, and has the easiest SOS of all 32 teams. Derek Carr is an upgrade (but likely not a Top-15 QB), while this defense that finished sixth in success rate in 2022 will be healthier in the secondary after missing plenty of games due to injury last season.
Of all the betting favorites to win their respective divisions, the Saints at Over 9.5 wins (+100) have the lowest total and the best odds of the other 9.5 teams (Detroit and Jacksonville). Considering the upgrade under center, some injury regression, and the cupcake schedule, a 10 or 11-win season is certainly in the cards. This offense doesn’t even need to overachieve to get this Over, that’s how good the defense is.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
New Orleans was one of the league’s biggest underachievers last season. It was solid on both sides of the ball — evidenced by ranking sixth in net yards per play — but was ultimately done in by ranking 31st in turnover differential, which helped pave the way to a 7-10 record. Sure, there’s a lot of luck involved with turnovers, but bringing in Derek Carr who’s thrown 28 interceptions in the past two seasons won’t help.
That said, it’s hard to ignore an absolute cupcake of a schedule that features just one opponent in the Top 12 on the Super Bowl futures odds board (the Lions). If Carr can clean up the turnovers and Dennis Allen can cut back on some clumsy decisions, the Saints should cruise to a double-digit win season.
New Orleans Saints trend to know
As mentioned above, the Saints have 15 of their look-ahead lines parked in the range of -3 to +3 — games expected to be decided by a field goal.
Under Sean Payton, New Orleans made good on those tight lines, going 18-15 SU and 19-14 ATS (57%) from 2016 to 2021 in games with closing spreads between -3 and +3.
Under Dennis Allen, however, the 2022 Saints stumbled in those expected nail-biters with a 3-6 SU and ATS record versus spreads in that FG range.
Saints first five games
- Week 1 vs. Titans (-3.5)
- Week 2 @ Panthers (+1)
- Week 3 @ Packers (-1)
- Week 4 vs. Buccaneers (-3.5)
- Week 5 @ Patriots (+3)
