If Zach Wilson’s game can be as mature as his taste in women, the New York Jets have a bright future.
The learning curve gets mighty steep for the second-year quarterback and the rest of Gang Green, who are rich in promise coming off 4-13 SU record (6-11 ATS) in an injury-plagued 2021. Head coach Robert Saleh is depending on his young guys to grow up fast, entering Year 2 under his 4-3 defense and Mike LaFleur’s offensive playbook.
The Jets’ NFL odds aren’t asking much, with one of the lowest win totals on the board and the lookahead lines not painting a pretty picture. Can potential and plenty of points add up against the spread?
Hide your mothers. Here’s the New York Jets 2022 NFL betting preview.
New York Jets futures odds
| Futures bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| To win Super Bowl | +20,000 |
| To win conference | +10,000 |
| To win division | +1,800 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 6 (Over -110) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes +700 / No -1,100 |
Best futures bet: Under 6 wins (-110)
The foundation for a good football team is being laid in East Rutherford, but I feel like we’re still one year out from considering the Jets as a team on the rise. Based just on the lookahead lines, there are three wins and seven “winnable” matchups in front of New York, but this schedule isn’t going to play nice.
A run of really good defenses in the first half of the calendar could kill any growth and confidence with Wilson and when the sked does lighten up a touch, it sends Gang Green on the road in five of the final eight games. Mix in the 10th toughest QB SOS and getting to 7-10 is a stretch. For those believing in the J-E-T-S, you can find Over 5.5 wins out there but you’ll have to pay -160.
New York Jets betting overview
What will win bets: Improved defense
Part of this improvement is player pick-ups and the other is getting healthy. The Jets were the second most injury-prone team in the NFL last season — behind Baltimore — and that included plenty of players on the defensive side of the ball.
The defensive line looks great with Jermaine Johnson and John Franklin-Myers headlining, and the secondary has promise with young studs and a number of new faces. New York finished dead last in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders last season, so improving isn’t that tough. With that said, better pass pressure and an uptick in takeaways will go a long way for N.Y. bettors.
What will lose bets: Attacking Zach
The opening half of the 2022 campaign could be a rough ride for this Jets' offense. New Yorkers have their fingers crossed that Wilson and his young weapons progress and the new additions like WR Garrett Wilson and RB Breece Hall meld quickly.
The opening nine games feature five teams ranked Top 10 in pass defense DVOA last season while also including bounce-back years for elite stop units in Baltimore, Green Bay, and Denver. Throw in Cincinnati’s nasty pass rush and Wilson will be lucky to escape the first two months unscathed behind a line that finished 28th in adjusted sack rate and struggled in LaFleur’s zone blocking scheme.
New York Jets game-by-game odds
The Jets are getting more than a field goal in 11 games in 2022, including seven spreads of +6.5 or higher. New York couldn’t turn those beefy spreads into cash last season, finishing 3-5 ATS when getting 6.5 or more from the oddsmakers.
The 2022 slate does zero favors for Saleh’s team. While the calendar is frontloaded with home games before the bye in Week 10 (five of nine inside MetLife), it features visits from the Ravens, Bengals, and Bills. Gang Green then plays five of the final eight contests away from home, and one of the home dates is a short week against the Jaguars on Thursday night in Week 16.
The Jets’ standard strength of schedule ranks out tied for 17th for 2022 but my QB SOS — which measures the quality of QB competition — hands New York the 10th toughest lineup of opposing passers in the league. Hell, N.Y. could potentially take on Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Josh Allen all before the Week 10 break.
| Week | Opponent | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs. Baltimore | +5.5 | 45 |
| 2 | @ Cleveland | +6.5 | 43 |
| 3 | vs. Cincinnati | +4 | 44.5 |
| 4 | @ Pittsburgh | +3.5 | 45 |
| 5 | vs. Miami | +3 | 46.5 |
| 6 | @ Green Bay | +9.5 | 46 |
| 7 | @ Denver | +7.5 | 46 |
| 8 | vs. New England | +3 | 42 |
| 9 | vs. Buffalo | +7.5 | 48 |
| 10 | BYE | ||
| 11 | @ New England | +7 | 42.5 |
| 12 | vs. Chicago | -2.5 | 44 |
| 13 | @ Minnesota | +6.5 | 48 |
| 14 | @ Buffalo | +10.5 | 47 |
| 15 | vs. Detroit | -3 | 45 |
| 16 | vs. Jacksonville | -2.5 | 45 |
| 17 | @ Seattle | +2.5 | 43 |
| 18 | @ Miami | +5.5 | 45 |
New York Jets Pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
There's lots of hype about the roster improving, but I’m not fully sold yet. Zach Wilson had one of the worst rookie seasons for a first-round pick in recent memory. It’s all on him (as well as last year's 32nd-ranked defense).
Catch the Hitman NFL Release Show on Covers every Thursday and Friday throughout the NFL season!
Adam Chernoff, The Simple Handicap podcast (@adamchernoff)
New York Jets early season forecast
Robert Saleh was hoping to flip the script when it came to Gang Green’s early-season success, but went 0-3 SU and ATS in the first three weeks of 2021, carrying over a culture of poor starts from the Adam Gase era. New York is 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS in the opening three weeks of the past three seasons and faces an uphill climb to kick off 2022.
The Jets welcome the Ravens in Week 1, who also struggled with injuries in 2021 and will look much different with new defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald shaking up the schemes. This spread has climbed from New York +4.5 to as high as +6 at some books.
The Week 2 look-ahead odds currently have Cleveland as a 6.5-point home favorite hosting the Jets, with oddsmakers splitting the difference on Deshaun Watson’s status. He’ll likely be suspended for the opener which would drive this line down to about two points. Should Watson play, I could see the Browns laying -9.5.
New York takes on the defending AFC champion Bengals in Week 3, with this spread varying from New York +4 to +5. This is a bit of a revenge spot for Cincinnati, which lost 34-31 to New York in Week 8 last year. However, Cincy slid into a nasty schedule spot in that game. It was the team’s third straight road game and had the Bengals looking ahead to the Browns the following Sunday.
New York Jets spot bet
Week 7: @ Denver (+7.5, 48)
The Jets play their second straight road game and third in four weeks in Week 7 and to make matters worse, that challenging chunk of schedule sends them up the mountain to play the Broncos in the energy-sapping air of Mile High.
New York visited Denver in Week 3 last season and got tossed around in a 26-0 shutout loss, amassing a mere 162 yards. This year’s Broncos have the defense healthy and Russell Wilson at the wheel, which is why this spread is sitting on the other side of a touchdown.
New York Jets totals tip
New York wrapped 2021 with a 10-7 Over/Under record, including a 6-3 O/U count at home. Chalk that up to a patchwork stop unit that allowed a league-high 29.6 points per game and 73 passing plays of 20 yards or more.
There’s a nice core of offensive talent in East Rutherford and LaFleur keeps defenses on their toes, but so much hinges on Wilson and if he can fit the quick-hitting West Coast style playbook, after struggling on short and intermediate throws last season. The schedule doesn’t help with that progression.
The road may be the best place to hunt for Unders when it comes to the Jets. Last season’s squad finished 3-4 O/U as a visitor. With the defense healthy and improved and the offense keeping things short and tidy, low-scoring finishes are on the way.
Star power: Zach Wilson props
| Player prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| Most passing yards | +6,000 |
| Most passing TDs | +6,500 |
| Most passing INTs | +800 |
| Passing INT total | 14.5 (Over -110) |
| Passing TD total | 22.5 (Over -110) |
| Passing yards total | 3,750.5 (Under -115) |
Best prop: Under 14.5 interceptions (Under -110)
Zach Wilson was picked off 11 times in 13 games (threw an interception on almost 3% of his attempts) during his rookie year with eight of those INTs coming in his first eight games. He kept a clean sheet in his final five outings but was scaled back in attempts. That said, he wasn’t forcing deep balls like he was early in the year and started to get comfy in LaFleur’s quick-hitting system.
He’s set up well in 2022 considering the bumper crop of skill position talent around him and I expect to see more balance from a playbook that threw on 63.32% on snaps (third most), due in part to playing from behind so often. A better run game and healthy defense will take pressure off Wilson to make things happen, which can often lead to disaster.
New York Jets trend to know
The AFC East is going to be a log jam with the Bills above all and the Patriots and Dolphins pegged for improvement. Holding their own in the division is something the Jets have failed to do in recent years, with their last divisional win coming way back on December 29, 2019.
Robert Saleh finished 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in AFC East matchups last season, including an 0-3 SU and ATS count in divisional home games. Going back to 2018, New York is a dismal 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS playing host to an AFC East rival.
Jets divisional home games
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