We’ve watched recent quarterback swaps produce results for the likes of Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford, who led teams to Super Bowl glory in a weird new uniform. Is Aaron Rodgers next?
If the New York Jets’ NFL odds are any indication, the betting markets are doing their best “Fireman Ed” impersonation.
Super Bowl odds pegged the Jets at 30/1 to win the Lombardi back in the winter and rumblings that Rodgers was interested in Gang Green slimmed that price all the way to +900 at some operators before a trade was made official in April.
That interest has since cooled — with New York bouncing between 13/1 and 17/1 — but that still has Gang Green among the Top 6 contenders for the Super Bowl. Books are heavy on Jets liability as well, with more than 5% of total ticket count and handle riding on New York.
The boost in Big Game odds has also brought with it a season win total and look-ahead lines calling for at least 10 victories from the J-E-T-S this season. I hop into the hype headfirst for my New York Jets 2023 NFL betting preview to bring you my favorite NFL futures bets for this squad.
New York Jets futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +1,600 | +1,600 | +1,600 |
| Win conference | +1,000 | +1,000 | +900 |
| Win division | +270 | +250 | +250 |
| Make playoffs | -130 | -134 | -140 |
| O9.5 wins | -115 | -122 | -120 |
| U9.5 wins | -105 | +100 | +100 |
Best futures bet: Over 9.5 wins (-120)
The 9.5-win total is juiced to -130 while the look-ahead lines have New York as a point-spread favorite in 10 games, with one other at a pick’em. Five of the six games in which the Jets are underdogs have spreads of less than a field goal.
Aaron Rodgers’ arrival makes the AFC East one of the tightest divisions in football. Buffalo is still the frontrunner, but New York and Miami appear destined to fight for second place — a fight that could yield double-digit wins for both sides.
You could take New York to make the playoffs at -130 or lay less for it to win 10 games, something the preseason odds lean heavily toward. The strength of schedule says the Jets have the second-hardest road in the NFL, with the bulk of those challenges in the opening six weeks, but it may look worse than it really is.
Gang Green doesn’t have any rest disadvantages, plays their toughest non-divisional foes at home, and the trickiest spot (third road game in four weeks at Buffalo) sees the Bills coming off a MNF game before hosting New York in Week 11.
Even if the Jets get off to a rough start (see “Trend To Know” section) — say, 2-4 SU in the first six weeks — there are still plenty of chances to put 10 wins on the board by the end of the season.
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New York Jets betting overview
What will win bets: Defense
Getting Rodgers under center is only going to help Robert Saleh’s defense in 2023.
Last season, the Jets offense stayed on the field for just 28:44 per game — 28th in average time of possession — and ranked 28th in third-down conversions. That meant the stop unit was picking up their helmets moments after taking a seat.
New York ranks Top 5 in most preseason defensive polls, expected to improve upon a unit that finished 2022 ranked No. 6 in EPA allowed per play and No. 5 in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders. The Jets do it all, generating the third-highest pressure rate for 45 sacks, and have quality corners ball hawking the backfield, including Defensive Rookie of the Year winner Sauce Gardner.
Now, this defense isn’t without its gaps. New York ranked middle of the road in stopping the run and allowed more than 121 yards per game on the ground. That said, with Rodgers injecting the offense with life, opponents may have to abandon the rush and play into the Jets’ strengths on defense.
What will lose bets: Overrated offense
There’s a lot of hype around this offense with Rodgers reuniting with former Packers coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, who’s been the brunt of some harsh criticisms since being shown the door in Denver.
Is Hackett a hack or can he rekindle the glory days of Green Bay? Go ask Sean Payton.
The Jets are certainly trying to make that happen by bringing in former Cheesehead WRs Allan Lazard and Randle Cobb (like Adam Sandler getting Kevin James and David Spade in all his movies). However, those veterans will play behind wideouts Garrett Wilson, Corey Davis, and Mecole Hardman Jr.
Rodgers is not an easy guy to play with if you buy into those rumors of him bringing young WRs near tears during his tenure in Wisconsin. All the talk out of training camp is positive and the highlights look great, but just wait until someone misses one of Rodgers’ bizarre hand signals during a two-minute drill.
And then there’s the run game and offensive line. Running back Breece Hall is coming off an ACL injury and still hasn’t participated in camp, leaving him a question mark for Week 1 and beyond. The guys in front of him are even more brittle with tackle Mekhi Becton made of tissue paper and aging T Duane Brown already dealing with ailments this summer.
A quick glance at the look-ahead lines for the 2023 Jets sees plenty of minus signs next to the spreads and a number of Over/Under totals on the high side of 45 points. If the offense doesn’t come through, Gang Green will be in the red.
New York Jets 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Buffalo Bills |
+1.5 |
| 2 | @  Dallas Cowboys |
+2.5 |
| 3 | vs  New England Patriots |
-4.5 |
| 4 | vs  Kansas City Chiefs |
+2 |
| 5 | @  Denver Broncos |
-1 |
| 6 | vs  Philadelphia Eagles |
+1 |
| 7 | BYE | |
| 8 | @  New York Giants |
-1.5 |
| 9 | vs  Los Angeles Chargers |
-2 |
| 10 | @  Las Vegas Raiders |
-2.5 |
| 11 | @ Buffalo Bills |
+4 |
| 12 | vs  Miami Dolphins |
-2.5 |
| 13 | vs  Atlanta Falcons |
-6.5 |
| 14 | vs  Houston Texans |
-8.5 |
| 15 | @ Miami Dolphins |
+1.5 |
| 16 | vs  Washington Commanders |
-5.5 |
| 17 | @  Cleveland Browns |
-1 |
| 18 | @ New England Patriots |
-1 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
With a season win total juiced closer to 10 and early-bird spreads installing the Jets as faves in 10 games, my power ratings are positive for Gang Green — even with a nasty start to the season. I have New York ranked 12th overall (59.02/100) — just ahead of the rival Dolphins.
New York gets no time to gel in full-speed games, taking on the likes of Buffalo, Dallas, New England, Kansas City, Denver, and Philadelphia before a Week 7 bye. Rodgers’ influence will be put to the test with five of those foes ranked Top 10 in preseason defensive polls and the outlier being the Chiefs.
The back half of the slate is lighter, especially once the Jets get into December. They’re favorites of six or more points in home stands with Atlanta, Houston, and Washington and priced at a pick’em at Cleveland in Week 17.
The schedule makers have one hell of a Week 1 finale on tap with New York hosting Buffalo on Monday Night Football. The current spread is bouncing between Jets +1 and +1.5 while my NFL ratings forecast a spread of New York +1.12. The total for that MNF opener is 47 points.
New York Jets schedule spot bet
Week 12: VS Dolphins
The Week 11 trip to Buffalo will be a tough one, as the Jets will be playing in back-to-back road games and their third roadie in four weeks. However, the Bills will be at a rest disadvantage after playing Denver on Monday in Week 10.
New York also catches a break the following game, hosting the Dolphins in an extremely important AFC East showdown that could determine playoff positioning. This is a Thanksgiving Week encounter with Week 12’s tilt scheduled for Black Friday.
The short week is tougher on the visiting team as they lose a good chunk of time traveling and getting settled in. There are also plenty of off-field distractions for players and staff as they juggle football commitments with family plans around the holiday.
Early odds have the Jets as 2.5-point home chalk on that short week while my power ratings spit out an estimated spread of -2.06.
Star power: Aaron Rodgers props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | +1,600 | +1,600 | +1,800 |
| OPOY | +5,000 | +6,000 | +3,000 |
| Passing leader | +2,000 | +3,000 | +2,000 |
| Passing TD leader | +650 | +1,200 | +700 |
| O27.5 pass TD | -105* | -112 | -130 |
| U27.5 pass TD | -115* | -112 | +100 |
| Pass yards total | 3,950.5 | 3,800.5 | 3,925.5 |
*Pass TD Over/Under is 28.5 at DraftKings
Best prop: Over 3800.5 passing yards
Let’s be clear, Aaron Rodgers is no game manager. He’s in New York to throw the football.
The Jets fulfilled his wish list of favorite targets like Allan Lazard and Randall Cobb this offseason and took a chance on damaged goods with the hire of A-Rod’s former OC Nathaniel Hackett — all coming before Rodgers actually inked his deal.
Last season, a disgruntled Rodgers passed for 3,695 yards after losing his top target Davante Adams to an offseason trade and was left with a bunch of youngsters who struggled to keep up with the MVP’s adjustments at the line of scrimmage.
The Packers also passed on just 56.61% of snaps and ran the second-slowest offense in the land (30.21 seconds/play). Hackett’s awful offense in Denver at least played with a little pace in 2022, at 27.5 seconds per play (18th) and the Jets don’t have the running chops that the Cheeseheads did last season.
Most of Rodgers’ full-season projections have him topping 4,000 yards with a consensus of 3,994 yards, which is very close to his player prop total. You can shop around and get this Over/Under as low as 3,800.5 yards.
New York Jets betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
The first nine weeks of the NFL season are going to put Aaron Rodgers and Nathaniel Hackett’s offense to the test as vs. BUF, at DAL, vs. NE, vs. KC, at DEN, vs. PHI, BYE, at NYG, and vs. LAC is a tough way to kick off the campaign.
Hackett’s offense is apparently not an easy one to learn, and the offensive line is a downgrade for Rodgers who enters his age-40 season and finished 21st in EPA a season ago with a better play caller. The range of outcomes for this team is wide in 2023 but Hackett has never done anything by himself, and a souring relationship could be in the cards if Gang Green heads into its bye at 2-4 SU or even 1-5 SU.
That could create some value in the Jets who have a much easier second half and could finish 7-4 or 8-3 following the break.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
New York’s season will likely come down to which version of Aaron Rodgers they’ll be getting. While the former MVP has become the toast of the town (and is saying all the right things) it can’t be ignored that he’s coming off his worst season since his first year as a starter — and the soon-to-be 40-year-old was beat up throughout the year.
He’ll need more than motivation to turn back the clock and this defense will need a repeat performance vs. what appears to be a more difficult schedule of opposing offenses.
That said, I think the Jets are more likely to follow in the footsteps of their overhyped regional cousins, the Mets and the Nets, than they are to be a legit contender.
New York Jets trend to know
We’ve mentioned the treacherous start to 2023 for the Jets. Getting out of the blocks has been an issue for this franchise for a while now and even Robert Saleh hasn’t been able to snap the slow starts in his two years in East Rutherford.
Saleh is 1-5 SU and ATS in the first three weeks of the season, a nasty trend looming from the Adam Gase era in New York. Over the past five seasons, the Jets are 2-13 SU and 3-12 ATS in the opening three weeks of play, also going 5-10 Over/Under in that stretch.
Can Rodgers help shake the team awake? His Packers went 11-3-1 SU and 11-4 ATS from Weeks 1 to Week 3 in that same span.
Jets first three games
- Week 1 vs. Bills (+1.5)
- Week 2 @ Cowboys (+2.5)
- Week 3 vs. Patriots (-5.5)
