We enjoyed a 10-6 card last week, including a +1,300 Quintez Cephus TD, but we’re not slowing down this week. We’ve hit the books hard this week, looking into every NFL market in search of value and great numbers—so you don't have to!
Today, we’re riding a heater with a young tight end, fading the Vikings against a rested Buccaneers squad, and taking a stab at some +950 money.
We break down the best NFL team and player props and bring you our favorite free picks and predictions for Week 14
NFL Prop Picks for Sunday
Hock if You’re Horny
With RB D’Andre Swift and WR Kenny Golladay having missed some recent time with injuries, TE T.J. Hockenson has become Matt Stafford’s favorite target. The second-year tight end has been targeted at least seven times in five of his last six games and is coming off back-to-back 80-yard performances.
The Lions could be playing a lot of catch up to the Packers, who are the highest-scoring team in the league and coming off a three-game stretch that saw them average 34 points per contest.
Swift is probable, but is dealing with a concussion and was limited this week.
Hockenson has topped his receiving yardage total in three straight weeks and has been held under 39 yards receiving in just one of his last seven games.
PREDICTION: T.J. Hockenson Over 47.5 receiving yards (-110)
More Metcalf Money
We’re on a D.K. Metcalf heater, which isn’t an uncommon thing for bettors backing the Seattle receiver all year. Metcalf has hit the Over on his receiving yardage total in back-to-back games and showed last week that even with a struggling offense and low volume, he can still cash tickets.
This week he gets a Jets secondary that has the worst DVOA passing defense, per Football Outsiders, and is giving up nearly 200 yards to opposing WRs per game this year. New York’s Lamar Jackson could line up against the monstrous Metcalf, and the Jets’ corner is ranked 114th out of 127 ranked CBs in coverage, per Pro Football Focus. Jackson was the corner that gave up the game-winning TD to Las Vegas’ Henry Ruggs last week. Recently-activated Bless Austin is also an option at corner.
It’s scary taking such a high receiving total against the Jets, so instead of steering clear, we’re going to stack it with Metcalf’s longest reception total of 26.5 yards. When you’re averaging 17.8 yards per catch and facing the worst pass defense, 27 yards isn’t that much.
PREDICTION: D.K. Metcalf Over 76.5 receiving yards (-112) and longest reception Over 26.5 yards (-115)
Minny’s Decimated Defense
The Minnesota Vikings may be climbing up the standings thanks to their five wins in their last six games, but their defense is giving up 27.4 points per game—good for 26th most in the league. The Vikes’ defense will have to stop the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (coming off their bye) without the help of their best defender in LB Eric Kendricks.
The heartbeat of the Minny defense has been ruled out for Sunday’s match, which is a huge upgrade for the Tampa Bay offense, as Kendricks is ranked as the third-best LB, per PFF. The linebackers’ absence is just one of the numerous key injuries the Vikings defense has dealt with all year.
Despite the recent worries in Tampa Bay, the offense hasn’t had a problem putting points on the board over its previous three games. Brady and the boys dropped 46 on the Panthers in Week 10, and then put up 27 points against the Rams (No. 5 DVOA defense) and Chiefs (No. 13 DVOA pass defense) over the following two weeks.
The Bucs’ team total stands at 29.5, which is a high number, but a number they have cleared five times this year.
PREDICTION: Tampa Bay Buccaneers team total Over 29.5 (-115)
Longshot of the Week
Last week, we hit our longshot bet of the week: a +1,300 TD from rookie WR Quintez Cephus. This week’s longshot comes out of Chicago, where the once-potent Bears defense has given up 13 total TDs over its last three games.
The Bears have surrendered the game’s first TD in nine of their 12 games this year. That’s great news for us, as our longshot is reliant on the Houston Texans scoring the game's first touchdown.
The Texans placed running back David Johnson on the COVID list this week, meaning 3.0 YPC Duke Johnson will be starting. Houston may have to pass more to be successful. With WR Will Fuller also out, Keke Coutee is the only receiver who has been targeted in the red zone over the last two games. Coutee led the team in targets, catches and yards last week in the Texans’ first game without Fuller.
Let’s go long again and take the Houston receiver to score the game’s first TD.
PREDICTION: Keke Coutee first touchdown scorer (+950)
NFL Prop Picks for Saturday
Twenty Four Glennon
Jacksonville’s Mike Glennon threw the ball deep more often than any other QB last week. The Jags’ QB had 24 percent of his balls travel 20 yards or further and ended with 280 passing yards against Minnesota’s No. 9 DVOA pass defense, per Football Outsiders.
This week, the Jaguars are seven-point dogs to the Titans, whose pass defense gave up 340 yards through the air last week. Outside of Lamar Jackson, each of the last four QBs to face the Titans has thrown for over 285 yards — that includes Nick Foles.
The Titans’ offense has been rolling of late and should be able to push the score — forcing Glennon to keep the game in the air.
PREDICTION: Mike Glennon Over 266.5 passing yards (-110)
Saints to Hurt Hurts
Askin' for Some Gaskin
In his first game back from injury, Miami RB Myles Gaskin touched the rock 23 times for 141 scoreless yards. The running back did have seven carries in the red zone but failed to score a TD. His luck could change this week as a few stars are aligning for a Gaskin TD.
First off, fellow RB Salvon Ahmed has already been ruled out ahead of Miami’s Week 14 tilt against the Kansas City Chiefs, further expanding the starter's role. Gaskin is also trusted in the passing game so the game script shouldn’t take him off the field.
Secondly, the Chiefs are allowing a league-high 67 percent of opponents’ runs inside the five-yard line to become six points. This is a KC defense that ranks 13th in DVOA pass defense but 30th against the run.
Tua Tagovailoa has been a mixed bag at starting QB (no interceptions on 136 passes is impressive) so Miami’s push into the playoffs should revolve around its running game, especially against a beatable KC run defense.
PREDICTION: Myles Gaskin Over 0.5 TDs (+125)
Fading Fulgham
What happened to Philadelphia’s Travis Fulgham? The receiver averaged 87 receiving yards per game from Weeks 4 to 8. Since then, the second-year WR has just 32 total yards across his last four games.
Fulgham threw up a donut last week as he played a season-low 40 percent of offensive snaps and had zero catches on two targets. Incoming QB Jalen Hurts failed to complete a pass Fulgham’s way last week and now has to deal with a New Orleans’ league-second-best pass defense.
We may be one week too late on fading Fulgham, but we still like betting on his diminished role within the offense. We don’t usually play the Unders on small receiving totals, but with Fulgham fading into obscurity and a rookie QB making his first start against one of the best defenses, we’re pulling the trigger on the Under this week.
PREDICTION: Travis Fulgham Under 16.5 receiving yards (-115)
McKissic Holiday
Washington running back J.D. McKissic could be in for a big workload on Sunday against the 49ers, as fellow RB Antonio Gibson has been ruled out. We’ve been a huge McKissic backer all year especially since QB Alex Smith has stepped in.
McKissic isn’t the best between-the-tackles runner in the league, but what he does excel at is his role in the passing game. He’s received double-digit targets in three of his last five games and is averaging 40 yards receiving per game on 5.5 catches.
Sunday’s game shouldn’t get out of hand, as both offenses struggle to run up the score, keeping McKissic and his passing game role relevant, hopefully, for a full 60 minutes.
PREDICTION: J.D. McKissic Over 4.5 receptions (-125)
NFL Prop Picks for Friday
I Gotta Thielen
Minnesota WR Adam Thielen returned from his COVID-19 absence last week and saw 11 balls come his way, which he parlayed into eight catches for 75 yards. Thielen is arguably the most important possession receiver on the Vikings and is playing with one of the hottest QBs in the league right now in Kirk Cousins.
Cousins has averaged over 300 passing yards per game since Week 10, and only one other QB has thrown more yards than Minny QB over that stretch. With Thielen another week removed from the illness, the receiver could get a lot of work against an overrated Buccaneers passing defense.
The Bucs are allowing the second-most receptions to opposing WRs this season. Teams are also passing a lot against Tampa as they have one of the best rush defenses in the league.
PREDICTION: Adam Thielen Over 5.5 receptions (+100)
Over the Hill
New Orleans QB Taysom Hill will get at least one more crack under center as Drew Brees is not ready to take over. All Hill has done is gone 3-0 SU (3-0 ATS) in his three starts for the Saints but it's his rushing that has our Spidey senses tingling.
Hill has rushed for at least 44 yards per game since Week 11 and is averaging 58.6 rushing yards per game. He has also taken off at least 10 times in each of those three starts.
At 331 yards, no team is allowing more QB rushing yards than the Philadelphia Eagles in 2020.
Head Coach Sean Payton’s love for Hill is unmistakable and the QB will have a handful of designed run plays called his way. If Hill’s floor is 10 rushes, we only need 4.6 yards per carry to hit his rushing Over...and he is currently averaging 5.2 yards per tote.
PREDICTION: Taysom Hill Over 45.5 rushing yards (-113)
Saints to Hurt Hurts
Rookie QB Jalen Hurts will finally get his first start of the year this week—against arguably the best defense in the league. The Saints have surrendered just two TDs over their last 20 quarters of football and are allowing just 13 completions per game to opposing QBs over their last three games.
We don’t even know if Philadelphia coach Doug Pederson is going to give Hurts 100 percent of the QB snaps this weekend—anything is possible with DP. Even if he does, the green QB is a 1-2 read quarterback this early in his career and will have no problem tucking and running if his first couple of reads don’t pan out.
Matt Ryan, a former league MVP, only completed 19 passes against this NO defense last week. To expect Hurts to fall short of that number is something we are willing to put our money on.
PREDICTION: Jalen Hurts Under 18.5 completions (-120)
Pack Attack
The Green Bay Packers have scored 14 TDs over their last three games as Aaron Rodgers has been on fire of late. The likely runner-up to Patrick Mahomes’ MVP bid, Rodgers has thrown for at least three TDs in six of his last seven games.
The NFC North leaders are scoring nearly three red-zone touchdowns per game this year, thanks to the league’s second-highest red-zone TD scoring percentage at 76 percent. Sunday’s matchup against the Detroit Lions in a match made in touchdown heaven.
Looking at the TDs allowed per game rankings, you’ll find the Lions all the way down at No. 31, one spot ahead of the last-place Dallas Cowboys. The Packers have scored at least four TDs in three straight games while the Lions have allowed four or more TDs in two of their last three.
PREDICTION: Green Bay Packers Over 3.5 touchdowns (-120)
NFL Prop Picks for Thursday
Going Through the Motions
The Bengals have made us sweat in back-to-back weeks, but we’ve walked away with two straight team total Under wins. The Brandon Allen-led offense has managed just two TDs over eight quarters as the Cincy backup QB is 28 for 48 for 189 passing yards.
Allen was hit so much last week against the Dolphins that he didn’t finish the game and third-stringer Ryan Finley filled in for mop-up duty. As of Wednesday, there is no indication who will start this week. However, it really doesn’t even matter at this point for a Bengals team that will also be without RB Joe Mixon.
Even against the Cowboys, we are banging the team total Under again and looking for the trifecta.
PREDICTION: Cincinnati Bengals team total Under 19.5 (-105)
Lame Lynn
It’s amazing that Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn still has a job. The latest absurdity has Lynn telling his players (before their game last week against the Patriots) that they won’t be making the playoffs this year. The Chargers weren’t mathematically eliminated at that point, but the coach’s inspiring words translated into a 45-0 home loss to the East-Coast Pats.
The curtains are drawing for the 2020 Chargers, whose season is basically 2020 personified. With four more weeks to go and Lynn likely on his way out (reportedly at the end of the season), does the team have much to play for going forward?
The Chargers are 2.5-point home dogs to the Atlanta Falcons this week. Atlanta has averaged 26 points per game on the road, while the Chargers have given up 100 points over the last three weeks. Versus non-divisional opponents, which L.A. is, the Falcons are scoring 31 points per game over an eight-game sample. Sign us up for the Chargers’ bow out.
PREDICTION: Atlanta Falcons team total Over 25.5 (-110)
30 Minutes of Football
The Houston Texans have been sizzling in the first half since Week 11. Over that three-game stretch, they are 3-0 in the 1H Over and have scored 64 points themselves (second-most). Even their defense is giving it up early, as only three other teams are allowing more first-half points than the Texans’ defense.
It's not always easy betting on the Chicago offense, but last week there were 36 first-half points scored against the Lions. In Week 12, the Bears and Packers combined for even more first-half points as they hung 44 in the first 30 minutes.
The first-half Over can be found at 22 points but is trending upwards, as both teams are a combined 5-1 O/U on first-half totals since Week 11.
PREDICTION: Houston/Chicago first half Over 22 (-115)
Hitting Six on Thursday
Cam Newton cashed our Over 43.5 rushing prop early in the third quarter last week, but the QB’s struggles passing the ball remain consistent. Newton knows his value to the offense is on the ground, as he has at least nine rushes in five of his last six games. Included in those six games are six rushing TDs, including a pair in Week 13.
Newton’s rushing total has been ticking up over the last month, and this week’s total of 45.5 is a four-week high for his rushing total. Newton has topped 40 rushing yards in just three of his last seven games, but it has been the TD vulturing that has our attention.
Newton has 32 red-zone rushes on the year. Those 32 RZ totes are good for 40 percent of the team's red-zone rushes. The Rams have not been generous to QB rushing this year (15 yards per game) but are in the bottom half of the league in QB rushing TDs allowed.
PREDICTION: Cam Newton Over 0.5 TDs (-120)
Year to date record: 139-102 (58 percent)
NFL Week 14 Prop Betting Card
- T.J. Hockenson Over 47.5 receiving yards (-110)
- D.K. Metcalf Over 76.5 receiving yards (-112) and longest reception Over 26.5 yards (-115)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers team total Over 29.5 (-115)
- Keke Coutee first touchdown scorer (+950)
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- Mike Glennon Over 266.5 passing yards (-110)
- Travis Fulgham Under 16.5 receiving yards (-115)
- J.D. McKissic Over 4.5 receptions (-125)
- Myles Gaskin Over 0.5 TDs (+125)
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- Adam Thielen Over 5.5 receptions (+100)
- Taysom Hill Over 45.5 rushing yards (-113)
- Jalen Hurts Under 18.5 completions (-120)
- Green Bay Packers Over 3.5 touchdowns (-120)
- -
- Cincinnati Bengals team total Under 19.5 (105)
- Atlanta Falcons team total Over 25.5 (-110)
- Houston/Chicago first half Over 22 (-115)
- Cam Newton Over 0.5 TDs (-120)
Where Can I Find NFL Player Props?
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