NFL betting continues into Week 7. We're busy looking into every market in search of value and great numbers — so you don't have to!
Today, we are finding the best plays against a couple of injured offensive lines, hoping for Arizona’s best to suit up against a very generous Seattle secondary and looking for the best offensive matchup against the Jags’ league-worst defense.
We break down the best NFL team and player props and bring you our favorite free picks and predictions for Week 7.
We're coming off an 11-6 Week 6 and haven’t had a losing week yet this year. Ya, we are posting fyre picks over here.
NFL Prop Picks for Sunday
Eat Dre Love
Coming off a poor showing last week and a questionable tag for Sunday, dropping bucks on DeAndre Hopkins might not seem like great value but a matchup with the Seahawks’ secondary is a must-play for any No. 1 receiver. Hopkins got in a limited practice Friday and is on track to suit up for Sunday’s showdown with Seattle.
Hopkins leads the league with 601 yards receiving and is 4-2 O/U on his receiving-yard totals this year. Seattle is surrendering an absurd 295 yards to opposing WRs per game this year and with the way the Seahawks’ offense has been running, the Cardinals should stay in pass-mode to keep pace.
Seattle safety Jamal Adams will miss the Week 7 tilt as he joins a growing list of valuable defensive players on the IR or injured. Hopkins has topped 68 yards in all but one game this year and his receiving total of 75.5 yards against arguably the worst secondary in the league is a play we are getting down on.
PREDICTION: DeAndre Hopkins Over 75.5 receiving yards (-115)
Gross Domestic Rocket
The Dallas Cowboys went from having one of the best offensive lines in the league to one of the worst in a very short time. RG Zack Martin is out this week, meaning four of the team’s starting linemen will be backups and the starting left tackle is a third-string player. Andy Dalton and the offense could be under duress all game and we saw how that disrupted the entire offense last week.
Washington has four positive-graded D-linemen per PFF that could win the battle in the trenches all day. We could see a heavy dose of Ezekiel Elliott as the Cowboys will not want Dalton throwing it 50-plus times again this week, as opponents are only generating 19 completions per game against the Football Team this year.
PREDICTION: Andy Dalton Under 22.5 completions (-115)
Henry the Bounty Hunter
We have been picking on the Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense all year as they have had to deal with a handful of injuries to their best defensive players. This week, starting linebacker Myles Jack will miss his second game of the season with an ankle injury, joining S Jarrod Wilson and DL Abry Jones on the sidelines. It hasn't mattered much, because even when the Jags’ starters play through injuries they still have the league’s worst DVOA defense.
Opposing TEs have enjoyed the injuries on the Jags’ defense as Jacksonville is allowing 62 yards a game to TEs and nearly one TD per contest, as well. The Chargers’ Hunter Henry has seen at least seven targets in all but one game this year, is second on the team in red-zone targets and is coming off a TD-performance in Week 5.
PREDICTION: Hunter Henry anytime TD (+125)
Less is Gore
New York Jets’ LT Mekhi Becton, and his replacement George Fant, are both questionable for Sunday’s game against the Buffalo Bills in what could be a great spot for the Bills’ front seven after losing face last week against KC.
The Bills have an above league-average run-stopping group in terms of stuffing percentage. They are snuffing out 18 percent of run plays this year and could have an easier time going against the Jets’ banged-up O-line. Buffalo has struggled to make plays in the second level against the run (30th) but if the defense can disrupt the Jets’ running game early in the play, the Bills can hide one of their greatest weaknesses. Plus, the Bills could force the Jets to abandon the running game altogether.
Jets RB Frank Gore has seen 20 carries over the last two weeks and has topped 45 yards just once in his last three games. New York coach Adam Gase told reporters earlier this week that they would also like to get fellow RB La'Mical Perine more carries going forward. O-line, game scripts and competition are three huge red flags.
PREDICTION: Frank Gore Under 45.5 rushing yards (-115)
NFL Prop Picks for Saturday
Aiming at Anderson
With Christian McCaffrey out for another game this week, the Panthers’ offense will run through receiver Robby Anderson yet again. Anderson is quietly second in the league in receiving yards and with a big performance in Week 7, could find himself on top of the league. The Carolina receiver has collected 279 receiving yards on 28 targets over the last three weeks. Anderson should see a heavy dose of Saints’ CB Marshon Lattimore, who has allowed 15 receptions on 19 targets this year and is ranked as the 95th CB out of 103 graded per PFF.
The Saints have played three games at home this year and are allowing an average of 5.6 catches, 108 yards and one TD to opposing teams’ top WRs. New Orleans will be without WRs Michael Thomas (hamstring) and Emmanuel Sanders (COVID) so we could expect an extra series or two for the Carolina offense. Anderson is a perfect 6-0 O/U on his receiving totals this year.
PREDICTION: Robby Anderson Over 71.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Only Bet for the Jets
New York Jets’ QB Sam Darnold practiced in a limited fashion this week and head coach Adam Gase expects him to start against the Bills as a 10-point underdog. The Bills could be without their best coverage linebacker again this week in Matt Milano and their best CB in Tre’Davious White — both are questionable.
The obvious benefactor of a negative game script and better QB play would be WR Jamison Crowder, who burned the Bills for 115 yards and seven catches in Week 1. Crowder is questionable too but still worth a flier as he is a target machine when on the field.
Crowder is averaging 109 yards per game and, along with WR Breshad Perriman, are the only chain-movers on this offense. The Jets will be trailing all game and will have to pass the ball a ton. Sometimes volume is greater than value. If Crowder doesn’t play, the prop is voided but at 53.5 yards, we have to take the Over.
PREDICTION: Jamison Crowder Over 53.5 receiving yards (-112)
AutoMetcalf
Seattle is back on the field in Week 7 after its bye last week. That means we can play our automatic DK Metcalf plays again this week, like we've been every week since Week 2 and have been cashing. The Seahawks' receiver has topped 90 yards passing in each of his five games this year and is arguably the best receiver in the game. All he does is rip off massive gains as his 22.7 yards per catch paces the league.
With Russell Wilson as his QB, playing the Metcalf Over is a no-brainer at almost any number. But, when the books are giving us a total of 68.5 yards it's a no-brainer we need to tell the betting world about. While you’re here, take a good look at his Over 25.5 yards for the longest reception as Metcalf is also 5-0 O/U on that prop as well.
PREDICTION: DK Metcalf Over 68.5 receiving yards (-118) and Over 25.5 yards longest reception (-110)
For the Fant of Heart
It’s going to be cold and snowy in Denver on Sunday, with medium winds expected for the Broncos’ divisional game versus the Chiefs. Passing conditions could be affected which means we could see some more running and shorter throws. If the Broncos are forced to play from behind, TE Noah Fant could be the biggest benefactor.
Fant returns to the lineup that saw him injured in Week 4. Before that, the Denver TE was averaging nearly 55 yards and five catches per game. He will also have QB Drew Lock throwing him the ball, and the two accounted for 20 percent of the team’s target share in Weeks 1 through 4. We’re doubling down on Fant in Week 7, as many factors are lining up for him.
PREDICTION: Noah Fant Over 35.5 receiving yards (-119) and Over 3.5 receptions (-120)
NFL Prop Picks for Friday
Pack and Possession
The Green Bay Packers were embarrassed last week by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and allowed 38 straight points en route to a 38-10 loss. It was a tough go for the defense but the offense had a season-low 3.3 yards per play, which didn’t help.
We are expecting a bounceback from Aaron Rodgers and the offense in Week 7 against the Houston Texans and their bottom-six DVOA defense. The offense should be able to move the ball, but it is the Texans’ offense that could possibly suffer as their defense could be spending a lot of time on the field.
Even after last week’s dud, the Packers are still averaging 44.5 yards per drive, which is the fourth-highest in the league behind Kansas City, Las Vegas and Tennessee. Green Bay’s long drives have put them at the top of the NFL in time of possession per drive at 3:29. Houston is second-last in the league in opponents’ TOP per drive and the combination of these two numbers could really keep Deshaun Watson out of rhythm. That could be a big factor in a game where the Texans’ team total is set so high thanks to the week’s highest total of 57 points.
PREDICTION: Houston Texans team total Under 26.5 (-115)
Day of the Birds
No team in the league has allowed more yards to opposing wide receivers than the Atlanta Falcons. Through six weeks, the last-place Falcons are allowing 217.5 yards receiving to wide receivers per game. Per catch, that number is a robust 15.2 yards per grab and Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson just roasted that secondary for 166 yards last week.
The Detroit Lions roll into the comfy indoor atmosphere of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on Sunday and WR Kenny Golladay is coming off his best game of the year, a 104-yard performance against the Jaguars.
The Lions did lean heavily on the run game last week in a positive game script but could find the yards on the ground harder to come by against the Falcons No. 8 rush defense. Their passing defense, however, is a disaster, so Matthew Stafford and Babytron could be in for a big day now that Golladay is back to full health. Fellow receiver Marvin Jones is questionable for the game on Sunday after practicing in a limited fashion on Thursday which could mean an even bigger target share for the Lions’ best receiver.
PREDICTION: Kenny Golladay Over 73.5 receiving yards (-114)
The Only D in Dallas
To say things are a mess in Dallas would be an understatement. After last week’s primetime loss to the Cardinals, the players have turned on the coaching staff as Jerry’s Boys aren’t even favored against Washington in some books. The Football Team is a disaster itself but still has a good shot to knock off Dallas at home. If Ron Rivera and Washington want to walk away with a win on Sunday, they might have to lean heavily on their running backs, which wouldn’t be a bad idea against the Cowboys.
Over the last three games, Dallas has allowed the most rushing TDs at 2.7 per game, which is 0.7 more than the next-worst team. They are also allowing the most yards per carry over that stretch (6.4 ypc) and could be giving up chunks of yardage on the ground, but to whom?
RB J.D. McKissic has seen at least 50 percent of the offensive snaps since Week 3 but that has led to just 16 rushes as his involvement is more in the passing game. Rookie RB Antonio Gibson has split time with McKissic but has seen five red zone carries to the latter’s one. With Kyle Allen at the helm, this team will be looking to punch the ball in as opposed to relying on Allen’s creativity near the goalline.
PREDICTION: Antonio Gibson anytime TD (+100)
Washington Catching Team
Sticking with the Washington Football Team and QB Kyle Allen, the newly inserted signal-caller has completed 40 passes with 17 of those being to running backs. Washington has two great backfield pass-catchers in McKissic and Gibson, as the pair have caught 16 of the 17 passes Allen has thrown their way over the last two weeks.
Gibson is 3-0 O/U on his receiving totals over the last three weeks while McKissic is 4-0 O/U in his last four. Dallas didn’t have to deal with RBs in the passing game last week but this Sunday could be a big difference as Washington will need to get the ball into the hands of their backs in what is projected to be a competitive game. We are doubling down on the duo of pass-catching backs.
PREDICTION: Antonio Gibson Over 20.5 receiving yards (-120) and J.D. McKissic Over 26.5 receiving yards (-118)
NFL Prop Picks for Thursday
Searching for Sacks
Thursday kicks off with an NFC East matchup between the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles. The Giants have had zero running game since Saquon Barkley went down in Week 2, while the Eagles lost their No.1 RB in Miles Sanders last week. We could see expanded passing games from both teams, which could mean trouble and contact for both QBs.
Philly’s Carson Wentz has been sacked more than any other QB in the league as the Eagles and their mangled and makeshift offensive line are allowing 4.7 sacks per game since Week 4. There have been 34 combined sacks over the Eagles’ last four games, which equates to a whopping 8.5 QB takedowns per game. Daniel Jones has escaped a lot of pressure this year with his legs but could also be in trouble against a Philly D that’s fourth in the league with 3.5 sacks per game.
Look for this prop to open a few hours before kickoff and can be found under “main props” on bet365.
PREDICTION: Giants/Eagles Over 5.5 sacks
QB Rushing on TNF
Sticking with TNF, Jones and Wentz have rewarded bettors who’ve put their dollars on the QBs' rushing totals. Jones is a near-weekly automatic Over bet as he’s 5-1 O/U on his rushing yards prop to begin the year. Jones’ totals have increased quite a bit since Week 3 and now his once ~15.5 yards rushing total has ballooned to 29.5 yards for Week 7. Jones leads the team in rushing, which shows you the state of the Giants’ run attack.
Wentz has topped his rushing total in three of the last four games and is averaging 40.5 yards rushing since Week 3. The books have not adjusted his rushing totals like they did to Jones, and Wentz’s total can be found as low as 17.5 yards on some books. Sometimes playing a QB rushing total can be tough when his team is winning easily. Luckily for us, we’ve got two athletic and rushing-capable QBs to put our money on for TNF.
PREDICTION: Carson Wentz Over 17.5 rushing yards (-115) and Daniel Jones Over 29.5 rushing yards (-115)
30-Minute Charge
The Los Angeles Chargers’ first-half spread has dropped from -5.5 to -4 despite the full-game spread staying put at -7.5. Taking the Chargers by more than a TD isn’t for the faint of heart as the rookie-QB led Chargers have been a TD-or-more underdog three times already this year.
LAC has a Top-10 first-half defense that is allowing just 11 1H points this year, but over their last three games, the Chargers are giving up nearly 15 second-half points per match. Their offense also has performed better in the first 30 minutes as there is a nearly 10-point difference in what they’re producing in the 1H and the 2H.
The Jaguars’ M/O this year has been getting behind early and then playing catch-up in the second half. Playing the Chargers on the 1H spread can hopefully eliminate the worries of a TD-plus spread.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles Chargers first half -4 (-115)
Banking On the Bengals
In Week 7, Cincinnati faces a Cleveland defense that has allowed at least 23 points to every opponent this year — except Washington obviously — and gave up 30 points to this same Bengals team back in Week 2. Joe Burrow and the Bengals are coming off their best offensive performance as they dropped 27 points on the Colts’ No. 3 DVOA defense last week.
The Cleveland offense has struggled to run the ball since Nick Chubb’s injury in Week 4 and QB Baker Mayfield is dealing with a rib injury and poor performance that saw him hit the pine last week. This Cincy offense has been getting better every week as Burrow is averaging over 280 yards passing per game and the Bengals are running the second-most plays per game in football.
This game could be a shootout if the weather isn’t terrible (Total of 50.5) and Cincy has a great chance to put up some points against a bad defense and banged-up offense.
PREDICTION: Cincinnati Bengals team total Over 22.5 (-115)
Year to date record: 69-36 (66 percent)
NFL Week 7 prop betting card
- DeAndre Hopkins Over 75.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Andy Dalton Under 22.5 completions (-115)
- Hunter Henry anytime TD (+125)
- Frank Gore Under 45.5 rushing yards (-115)
- -
- Robby Anderson Over 71.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Jamison Crowder Over 53.5 receiving yards (-112)
- DK Metcalf Over 68.5 receiving yards (-118) and Over 25.5 yards longest reception (-110)
- Noah Fant Over 35.5 receiving yards (-119) and Over 3.5 receptions (-120)- -
- Houston Texans team total Under 26.5 (-115)
- Kenny Golladay Over 73.5 receiving yards (-114)
- Antonio Gibson anytime TD (+100)
- Antonio Gibson Over 20.5 receiving yards (-120) and J.D. McKissic Over 26.5 receiving yards (-118)
- -
- Giants/Eagles Over 5.5 sacks
- Carson Wentz Over 17.5 rushing yards (-115) and Daniel Jones Over 29.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Los Angeles Chargers first half -4 (-115)
- Cincinnati Bengals team total Over 22.5 (-115)
Where can I find NFL player props?
You can bet on NFL team and player props at nearly every online and casino sportsbooks. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL player and team props in your area.
