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Today, we’re hopping on a QB rushing total in poor playing conditions, taking a couple of RBs who could have big games for different reasons, and playing both sides in what we hope is a close game in Seattle.
We break down the best NFL team and player props and bring you our favorite free picks and predictions for Week 8.
We are coming off our worst week of the year at 9-9, but that is how well things have been rolling over here in the Covers Prop Department. We still haven’t had a losing week in 2020.
NFL Prop Picks for Sunday
Allen’s Appendages
On Thursday night, we saw two quarterbacks who don’t usually run take off and collect big yardage thanks to poor field conditions because of the weather. On Sunday, New England vs. Buffalo should see a lot of rain as well as Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh. It just happens that three of those QBs are the best rushers in the league, but with Cam Newton one bad half away from hitting the pine, we’re avoiding his rushing total.
Buffalo’s Josh Allen hasn’t been rushing as much as he did last year, but he's coming off his best rushing performance in a game where Buffalo was unable to do what they wanted on offense. Sunday’s conditions could also pose a similar game environment. In his two losses last year to New England, Allen rushed 12 times for 69 yards and a score. With a modest rushing total of 34.5 yards, while averaging over 50 yards on the ground over the last two weeks, we’re hitting the Over on Sunday and putting some on an anytime TD as well.
PREDICTION: Josh Allen Over 34.5 rushing yards (-114) and anytime TD (+188)
The Bell of Revenge
Revenge is a dish best served cold. Unless you’re Le’Veon Bell, then revenge is a dish best served on the stat sheet. The New York Jets released the former All-Pro running back before Week 7 and now have to face him and the Kansas City offense this week as nearly 20-point underdogs. We could see KC coach Andy Reid using Bell exclusively later in the game if the score is lopsided, and we doubt Bell would mind running up the score against his former employer.
Last week, Bell handled the rock six times, gaining 39 yards, and wasn’t targeted in the passing game. The Chiefs only ran 51 plays against the Broncos, so the usage and workload in the passing game are misleading. Bell handled six of the 14 RB carries and should get more usage after having another week to pick up the playbook.
PREDICTION: Le’Veon Bell Over 57.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115)
Playing Both Sides
The Seattle Seahawks have the league’s best offense but can’t put teams away because of how terrible their defense is. Their secondary has been crippled by injuries all year and now they will likely be without slot corner Ugochukwu Amadi. The Hawks can’t generate a pass rush either, and because of all this, Seattle has played in five one-possession games (eight points) and both of their latest matches have been solved by three points or less.
Winning margin markets are a great spot when bettors want to win +400 or more. Betting on both sides can also be profitable if a close game is expected. Taking the Seahawks to win by 1-6 points pays +375 while the 49ers to win by 1-6 points pays slightly more at +400. A half-unit wager on both sides could net you 1.37u. San Francisco has the talent to play catchup if need be, but we don’t see this game getting out of hand, and hopefully, it comes down to the wire.
PREDICTION: Seattle winning margin 1-6 points (+375) and San Francisco winning margin 1-6 points (+400)
Don’t Doubt Dobbins
Most NFL rookies have a steep learning curve and the 2020 season has presented even more obstacles for young RBs to gain roles on the offense. Baltimore’s J.K. Dobbins is averaging 6.2 yards per carry and 6.7 yards per reception this year but has been used sparingly to date. With starter Mark Ingram looking doubtful for Sunday’s massive game against the Steelers, Dobbins should see a much bigger role in the offense, especially with two weeks to practice following Baltimore’s bye.
Standing in Dobbins’ way is plodder extraordinaire Gus Edwards. Edwards has out carried the rookie 30-15 since Week 4 but Edwards is coming off a 14-carry, 26-yard performance in Week 6, good for 1.9 YPC. Dobbins is the most explosive player in this backfield and Week 8, following the bye, would be a great spot to get him more involved. H/T to @CoversBD for jumping on this earlier in the week at 49.5 combined yards.
PREDICTION: J.K. Dobbins Over 49.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115)
NFL Prop Picks for Saturday
Center of Attention
We have already locked in David Montgomery’s Under 51.5 rushing yards and are looking to cash in on the hot mess that is the Chicago offense. The Bears are scoring just two TDs per game this year and even less over their last three games. Facing a Saints team that has had two weeks to prepare, the Bears playing on a short week, Chicago will also be without their starting center and likely WR Allen Robinson, who is the only talented player on that offense.
QB Nick Foles couldn’t find time to throw the ball last Monday against the Rams. Now without his starting center, the signal-caller will absolutely struggle to find time for downfield passes against the Saints’ No. 4 pass rush defense. On top of the injuries and opponent, Chicago is expected to have some terrible weather on Sunday which includes winds in excess of 20 mph. Things are stacking up against the Bears’ already-struggling offense this week.
PREDICTION: Chicago Bears Under 1.5 total touchdowns (+137)
QB Takedowns
We squeaked out a last-play-of-the-game win last week with our Over 5.5 sacks in the Eagles/Giants game, but a win nonetheless. On the year, no team has more combined sacks per game than the Eagles at 7.4. Their Sunday opponent, the Dallas Cowboys, will be starting seventh-round rookie QB Ben DiNucci against an Eagles defense that has been averaging 3.4 sacks per game this season.
This game may feature the league’s two worst offensive lines as injuries have riddled both formerly-prominent O-lines. Dallas is giving up 2.9 sacks per game and Andy Dalton took six sacks in his two starts. DiNucci had three sacks in just three pass attempts relieving Dalton last week. When Philly is a 10-point favorite, some bad football is likely projected. The Eagles are 6-1 O/U on their sack totals this year.
PREDICTION: Dallas/Philadelphia Over 5.5 sacks (-130)
Juju Voodoo
Juju Smith-Schuster finally had a big game last week against the Titans’ generous defense, but this week’s opponent, division rivals Baltimore Ravens, own the league’s third-best DVOA defense. The Ravens also have one of the league’s best slot corners in Marlon Humphrey who is ranked as the fifth-best overall CB per PFF. The Pittsburgh slot receiver has been held to under 50 yards in four of his last five games, and with the emergence of Diontae Johnson and his double-digit target share, Juju has been relegated to second fiddle.
Baltimore has held teams to under 200 yards passing in back-to-back games and is coming off their bye. The Steelers haven’t been racking up passing yards this year, as they sit 23rd in passing yards per game at 229, and that number is even lower over their last three games. Over his five career games versus the Ravens, Smith-Schuster is averaging 53.2 yards a game and had just six yards on two catches (six targets) in Baltimore last year in Week 16. This total of 53.5 is shading towards the Over and might be available at a higher number closer to kickoff. But for this article’s sake, we’re grabbing it now and hitting the Under.
PREDICTION: Juju Smith-Schuster Under 53.5 receiving yards (-110)
Aiyuk the Books
Sometimes it’s just good to bet against the worst. It’s no secret that the Seahawks’ defense is the Hyde to the offense’s Jekyll (poor mandatory Halloween reference; apologies) as the league’s best offense can barely win games because the D can’t make a stop. This week, the San Francisco 49ers get to pad their stats against the Generals of NFL defense.
Wide receiver Deebo Samuel will sit this week after exiting Week 7’s contest against the Patriots. WR Brandon Aiyuk leads the Niners WRs in yards this year and saw a team-high eight targets compared to No.3 receiver Kendrick Bourne’s one. Aiyuk should continue to showcase this week and is averaging 92 receiving yards when receiving seven or more targets.
PREDICTION: Brandon Aiyuk Over 52.5 receiving yards (-118)
NFL Prop Picks for Friday
Unlike Agholor
Last week, the Cleveland Browns gave up 110 yards to Cincinnati outside receiver Rashard Higgins as the Browns have been getting burned by opposing WRs all year. Only two other teams have allowed more receiving yards to opposing WRs, and only the Seahawks have given up more receptions. This week, they face a Raiders team that has the second-best passing offense over the last three weeks.
The Raiders aren’t filled with household names at receiver, but Nelson Agholor has become QB Derek Carr’s new favorite target on the outside. The former Philly WR has TDs in three straight games and is coming off his best game of the year: 5/107/1 on a team-high nine targets. The books still aren’t that high on Agholor as his receiving total is just 35.5 yards and his reception total is nowhere to be found as of Thursday.
Poor weather is expected but bad field conditions make things harder for the defense as they have to react. If Agholor can haul in three or four balls, he could easily top this low total.
PREDICTION: Nelson Agholor Over 35.5 receiving yards (-114)
Darrell...Darrell...Darrell
Many eyes will be in Miami this week to see how rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa fares in his first NFL start. The former Alabama QB and his offense might have trouble with sitting around too much, as the Miami rush defense has been one of the worst units in the NFL. Through seven weeks, the Dolphins sit in the bottom-three in yards per rush attempt at 5.0. No RB has really had a monster game against them this year as teams are averaging just 22 rushes against, but the Rams are the second-highest rushing rate team in the league and will almost certainly rush the ball more than 22 times on Sunday, especially if Tua has trouble moving the offense.
The Rams run a two-back approach with Darrell Henderson averaging 15 totes over the last three weeks and Malcolm Brown good for 8-10 carries. Henderson has topped 59 yards rushing in four of the five games in which he’s carried 12 or more times.
PREDICTION: Darrell Henderson Over 60.5 rushing yards (-112)
Parlaying Mother Nature
While everyone is hammering Unders with this weekend’s cold, wet and windy weather forecasts, we are looking at other angles to find an edge. Looking at the games that have 20 mph winds or higher, we see LV/CLE, MIN/GB, NE/BUF, NO/CHI. Of those four games, Las Vegas/Cleveland has the best odds for Under 3.5 field goals at -150 while also having the projected strongest winds (26 mph).
Cleveland attempts the second-fewest FGs already, and may pass on 40-plus yarders if the wind is a big factor as expected. Both the Browns and Raiders are in the top half of the league in fewest field goals allowed at a combined 3.1 per game this season.
If the juice is too much, we wouldn’t say no to a four-teamer of Under 3.5 FGs that would net backers +770.
PREDICTION: Las Vegas/Cleveland Under 3.5 FGs (-150) or a four-teamer: LV/CLE+MIN/GB+NE/BUF+NO/CHI Under 3.5 FGs +770
Believe in Burrow
Bengals’ rookie QB Joe Burrow has rushed for a TD in back-to-back games and is coming off a 34-yard rushing performance vs the Browns last week. He could have some serious absences on his offensive line in Week 8 with his starting LT, RT and C questionable ahead of the game against Tennessee. To make matters worse, RB Joe Mixon looks like he may miss another week.
The Titans have had four of the six QBs they’ve faced to rush for 14 yards or more this year and should be able to get pressure on Burrow with the Cincy O-line issues. This could force Joe B to take off more and with a fantastically low rushing total of 13.5 yards, we’re putting our money on the Over. Young QBs who are underdogs are one of our favorite QB rushing prop angles to bet.
PREDICTION: Joe Burrow Over 13.5 rushing yards (-116)
NFL Prop Picks for Thursday
Thursday Night Air Attack
We have become smitten with the Carolina Panthers passing game of late and finally won some money on it last week with a Robby Anderson Over. If you haven’t been following the Panthers, they have two receivers, Anderson and DJ Moore, who both rank inside the Top 7 in the league in receiving yards. Anderson is fourth in the league at 91 yards a game, while Moore is hauling in 81 yards a game. Thursday could be a big day for both receivers as the Atlanta Falcons’ defense is allowing 223 yards and 14 catches per game to opposing wide receivers.
Carolina running back Christian McCaffrey is a game-time decision and if he sits again, he won’t be there to eat into the WRs’ target share. The Panthers don’t like passing to the TE and RB Mike Davis is good for 3-5 targets a game, which leaves the Carolina WRs to soak up the nearly 40 targets the Falcons are allowing on defense per game.
We don’t know which one to take, so we are grabbing both.
PREDICTION: Robby Anderson Over 74.5 receiving yards (-113) and DJ Moore Over 68.5 receiving yards (-113)
Three and Out
Our hate for the Chicago Bears may have boiled over to the midweek. That offense and play calling is as bad as it gets, as the root of this MAC-inspired offense is the rushing attack. The Chicago ground game gained 2.9 yards against a Los Angeles Rams defense that allowed 4.4 yards per rush ahead of last week’s contest. RB David Montgomery couldn’t shed a tackler if he wanted to and only two other teams are rushing at a worse rate and no team is rushing for fewer yards per game than the Bears.
Chicago faces a New Orleans Saints team that apparently hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher since the Civil War. Over the last three games, teams are gaining under 80 rushing yards against New Orleans this year. The Bears rushing game is in for another dud and we are looking to fade Montgomery, who has topped 65 yards rushing just once this year.
PREDICTION: David Montgomery Under 51.5 rushing yards (-114)
Golladay Looking for the Hat Trick
In our Indianapolis Colts vs. Detroit Lions preview, we wrote about a good matchup for Lions WR Kenny Golladay against an overrated Indy defense. The Colts have the No. 4-ranked DVOA pass defense but have been getting exposed in the secondary over their last few games. In Week 6, the Cincinnati Bengals passed for 313 yards and their three wide receivers gained 275 yards on 19 catches. The week before, Cleveland’s Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. both topped their season averages.
Playing the New York Jets and Bears has skewed the Colts’ stats and Golladay is coming in scorching hot, having recorded 219 yards in his two games since returning from injury. Golladay averaged 79 yards per game at home last year and getting the receiver’s total at 62.5 this week is a real bargain after it was 74.5 yards last week.
PREDICTION: Kenny Golladay Over 62.5 receiving yards (-115)
Cam vs the elements
Are we seeing the last of Cam Newton as the starter for the New England Patriots? Since he has returned from COVID-19, the former MVP is averaging just 6.8 yards per pass and has thrown five interceptions with zero TDs. He was replaced last week by backup Jarrett Stidham and now head coach Bill Belichick has had to go on the record and state that Cam is “absolutely” the starter and that his COVID recovery has not impacted his play. Cam is a future Hall of Famer but shoulder injuries, and now COVID, have greatly impacted his performance.
Things won’t get any easier for Cam and the Pats as they head to Buffalo and take on the Bills in Week 8. It’s not so much the opponent — the Bills have a Bottom-10 defense — but the weather that will be Cam's greatest opponent. Cold weather and rain are expected in Buffalo on Sunday but 20 mph winds will really hurt New England’s chances of moving the ball through the air and tallying points. The total has already fallen three points to 43 and we are getting on some weather action with one of the league’s most-struggling offenses, which hasn’t scored more than 12 points since Week 3.
PREDICTION: New England team total Under 18.5 (-113)
Year to date record: 78-45 (63 percent)
NFL Week 8 prop betting card
- Josh Allen Over 34.5 rushing yards (-114) and anytime TD (+188)
- Le’Veon Bell Over 57.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115)
- Seattle winning margin 1-6 points (+375) and San Francisco winning margin 1-6 points (+400)
- J.K. Dobbins Over 49.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115)
- -
- Chicago Bears Under 1.5 total touchdowns (+137)
- Dallas/Philadelphia Over 5.5 sacks (-130)
- Juju Smith-Schuster Under 53.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Brandon Aiyuk Over 52.5 receiving yards (-118)
- -
- Nelson Agholor Over 35.5 receiving yards (-114)
- Darrell Henderson Over 60.5 rushing yards (-112)
- Las Vegas/Cleveland Under 3.5 FGs (-150) or a four-teamer LV/CLE+MIN/GB+NE/BUF+NO/CHI Under 3.5 FGs +770
- Joe Burrow Over 13.5 rushing yards (-116)
- -
- Robby Anderson Over 74.5 receiving yards (-113) and DJ Moore Over 68.5 receiving yards (-113)
- David Montgomery Under 51.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Kenny Golladay Over 62.5 receiving yards (-115)
- New England team total Under 18.5 (-113)
Where can I find NFL player props?
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