NFL betting continues into Week 9. We're busy looking into every market in search of value and great numbers — so you don't have to!
Today, we are going north and south on a couple of team totals, looking for some running out of Arizona and hoping the Raiders can take advantage of some secondary problems in Los Angeles.
We break down the best NFL team and player props and bring you our favorite free picks and predictions for Week 9.
Like many last week, we took it on the chin hard at 4-13. That was our first losing week of the NFL season as we look to rebound in Week 9.
NFL Prop Picks for Sunday
Primetime Flacco
The New York Jets finally have all their receivers healthy and ready to face the Patriots on Sunday, the only problem is QB Sam Darnold will be sitting out. Taking the quarterback’s place will be the uninspiring Joe Flacco.
Flacco has already started two games this year and the Jets scored a whopping 10 points with one passing TD. This is a good receiving core that could do some damage with a decent QB, unfortunately for the Jets, Flacco is incompetent.
The New England defense held the Jets to just 14 points in their two previous meetings last season, which included a 33-0 win last October in the Meadowlands. A team total of 14.5 Points is as small as it gets, but the Jets have not scored more than 10 points since Week 4.
PREDICTION: New York Jets team total Under 14.5 (-115)
Beating on the Bills
The Buffalo Bills have finally put LB Matt Milano on the IR after he had been trying to play through an injury. Milano is a very important piece of the Bills’ coverage defense and his inability to stay on the field is a big reason for Buffalo’s defensive struggles this year.
The starting linebacker has missed three games this year and the Bills gave up 96 combined points. In games he has started, the Bills are giving up just 20.8 points and now have to try and contain the league’s best passing offense in Seattle.
The Seahawks have been held to under 29 points just once this year and are scoring a league-high 34.3 points per game. The Bills will also be without slot corner Josh Norman, which means Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett could have a big day on the field.
PREDICTION: Seattle Seahawks team total Over 28.5 (-115)
Luxury Carr
The Los Angeles Chargers dealt 2018 All-Pro CB Desmond King to the Titans this week and now they will be down another CB as Brandon Facyson hit the COVID-19 list ahead of Sunday's match with the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Chargers were already giving up the 10th-most passing yards per game and now they will be shorthanded against a Raiders’ passing attack that was gaining nearly 280 yards a game in Weeks 1 through 7.
The Raiders move their WRs around as Henry Ruggs III, Nelson Agholor and Hunter Renfrow have all seen snaps out of the slot, so choosing one is a tough task for this slot matchup. QB Derek Carr does have our attention though with his passing total set at 266.5 yards.
Carr has topped 266 yards in all but two games this year, with one of those being last week’s wind-fest in Cleveland. With Las Vegas’ defense being one of the worst in the league, Carr should see plenty of passing opportunities against struggling and shorthanded secondary.
PREDICTION: Derek Carr Over 266.5 passing yards (-115)
Chasing Chase
The Miami Dolphins’ defense looked great last week against the Rams, even scoring a TD in the victory. However, looking at their rush defense we see a group that has been allowing 5.4 yards per carry over the last three games, which is the third-most in the league.
Predicting the Arizona backfield will be a little easier in Week 9 as starter Kenyon Drake is out and Chase Edmonds will have the house to himself. Edmonds only has 29 rushes on the year but is averaging an eye-popping 6.1 yards per carry.
The Cardinals run almost 70 plays a game so there will be plenty of opportunities to contribute and if the Arizona defense can keep Miami rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa under wraps, Arizona and Edmonds could be running more than usual.
PREDICTION: Chase Edmonds Over 68.5 rushing yards (-115)
NFL Prop Picks for Saturday
Air Patrick Control
According to head coach Vic Fangio, Denver WR Tim Patrick is expected to start this week after having to leave his Week 7 game and missing Week 8 with a hamstring injury. Patrick was receiving the most attention among WRs on offense before his injury, averaging five catches and 107 yards in his two games before Week 7.
Patrick faces an Atlanta team that is rolling offensively and won’t have any trouble putting up points. This should keep the Broncos in pass mode throughout the game. The Denver WR gets to pad the stats against Atlanta’s 29th DVOA pass defense per Football Outsiders.
With fellow WR Jerry Jeudy also attracting attention in the Atlanta secondary, Patrick should see lots of single coverage on the indoor track of the Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
PREDICTION: Tim Patrick Over 43.5 receiving yards (-115)
Travis Aggressive
KC’s Travis Kelce has the best TE matchup on the board this week (per PFF) as he faces Shaq Thompson and the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers have not had to play any elite TEs since Week 1, but opposing TEs have had plenty of catches against the Cats.
Tights ends are getting over five catches per game against the Panthers this year, and that list includes Hayden Hurst twice. Kelce grabbed eight balls in a lop-sided win as the KC passing attack went off last week for over 400 yards.
The Chiefs' TE is 5-3 O/U on his reception totals this year (6-2 O/U receiving yards), averaging six catches for 76.3 yards this season, and has a five-inch and 30-pound advantage over his primary defender.
PREDICTION: Travis Kelce Over 5.5 receptions (-118)
Close, But No Lamar
Lamar Jackson has thrown four interceptions over his last four games and hasn’t looked nearly the same as his 2019 MVP season. Now without his starting LT, who is out for the year, the Ravens have to play a Colts’ defense on Sunday that leads the league in interceptions.
Indianapolis is picking 1.6 passes a game and has forced an interception in six straight games. Jackson could be under more pressure than usual without his LT and the Colts have made opposing QBs pay all year.
Jackson threw two picks in 28 pass attempts last week versus Pittsburgh’s No. 6 pass defense and could be in trouble this week against Indy’s No. 4 pass defense.
PREDICTION: Lamar Jackson Over 0.5 interceptions (+100)
Making Murray Move
Before his team hit the bye week, Arizona QB Kyler Murray was becoming one of the best rushing QBs in the league. He’s already averaging more rush yards than Lamar Jackson as he is scooting for 62.4 yards on the ground per game.
The scary thing was that he was rushing even more than usual before the break with an average of 11 rushes a game in Week 5 through 7. That would rank him in the Top 30 amongst running backs. Murray has topped 41.5 rushing yards in all but two games this year and is 5-2 O/U on his rushing total this year.
The Dolphins have a Top-3 pass defense and the league’s worst rushing defense per Football Outsiders. This could mean Murray taking off after not liking what he sees down the field, and with his 4.3 speed against Miami MLB Jerome Baker and his 4.53 wheels.
PREDICTION: Kyler Murray Over 41.5 rushing yards (-114)
NFL Prop Picks for Friday
Parker vs Peterson
Arizona Cardinals' CB Patrick Peterson is so good, Russell Wilson didn’t even look his way when he was holding DK Metcalf to his weakest performance of the year — 2/23/0. Instead, Seattle picked on CB Dre Kirkpatrick who was covering Tyler Lockett. Lockett erupted for 15/200/3.
This week, Miami WR DeVante Parker will likely draw Peterson’s attention, and with rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa not lighting the world on fire in his first NFL game (12-for-22, 93 yards, 1 TD), Parker could be in for a dud.
Parker saw just two targets last week in Tua’s first game and will be in a difficult position to reach his receiving total of 59.5 yards, a number he has gone Over in just two of his seven games this year.
PREDICTION: DeVante Parker Under 59.5 receiving yards (-113)
Not Waiting on Watson
Coming out of the bye, many may have forgotten how good Houston QB Deshaun Watson had been playing this year. Averaging 299 passing yards a game (fifth-most), Watson will get to feast on a Jacksonville defense that has the worst DVOA pass defense per Football Outsiders and is giving up 310 yards through the air over the Jaguars’ last three games.
Watson has the best O-line/D-line passing matchup this week as the Jags cannot generate any pressure on opposing QBs this year. Only the Titans have a lower sack conversion rate, generating pressure on just 25% of passing plays.
The Texans will have a healthy group of receivers despite some positive COVID tests and get to face Jacksonville rookie QB Jake Luton who will be making his first NFL start. Game flow could hurt us here, but this matchup is too good not to take.
PREDICTION: Deshaun Watson Over 283.5 passing yards (-115)
Not For the Faint of Heart
Nobody likes betting on the Jets, but what about betting against the Patriots? No team in the league has given up more rushing TDs in the last two games than New England. Buffalo had three rushing TDs against the Pats last week, and the 49ers had four rushing TDs in Week 7.
The Jets’ “rushing game” will get to face a team that is also giving up 4.6 yards per carry which is in the bottom third of the league. So which Gang Green RB is going to take advantage of this defense in primetime this Monday?
RB La’Mical Perine has seen all of the Jets’ red zone rushing attempts over the last three games. Ok, New York had just three red zone rushing attempts in total since Week 7, but Perine got all them despite splitting carries with Frank Gore 32-26 in favor of Gore.
Underdogs have played well under the lights of primetime and maybe the Jets can keep it close and not have to abandon the running game. We aren’t betting the farm on this one, but we like the odds and matchup for Perine, who coach Adam Gase has said he wanted to get more involved.
PREDICTION: La’Mical Perine Over 0.5 rush TDs (+340)
Picking Six
We are still wondering how Dallas QB Ben DeNucci didn’t throw an interception last week against the Eagles. Well, the rookie won’t have a chance to throw a pick in Week 9 as he has been benched. As of Thursday, the Cowboys still don’t know who will start this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers and their top defense.
Coach Mike McCarthy has to choose between Cooper Rush, who has three NFL passes on his resume, and Garrett Gilbert who has attempted six professional passes. These are not upgrades to DeNucci, just equal or worse options.
The Steelers defense will be ball-hawking all season and should be able to force either QB into some mistakes with how bad their offensive line play has been.
The Steelers lead the league in estimated defensive points per game and have scored two defensive TDs over the last three games. If there’s one game this week that screams pick-six or strip-sack fumble for a TD it's Dallas/Pittsburgh. Throw in a chance at some special teams magic and we love the +200 price tag on the league’s best defense against what will be the NFL’s worst QB in Week 9.
PREDICTION: PIT/DAL Special team or defensive TD scored — YES (+200)
NFL Prop Picks for Thursday
Thursday Night Armoury
We’re kicking the comeback train off Thursday night in a game that has a ton of injury/illness news to look through.
The Packers will be without RBs Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon, and Aaron Jones is questionable. The 49ers will literally be without every one of their skilled offensive players (QB1, WR1, WR2, WR3, TE1, RB1, RB2 and RB3!). Lots of no-name offensive players are going to get a chance to shine — if the game plays.
San Fran RB JaMycal Hasty is the obvious bet against a Green Bay rushing defense that Dalvin Cook embarrassed at home last week, but at 72.5 rushing yards, that’s a prop we are going to avoid. Instead of taking the 49ers’ early-down RB in a game where they are nearly a TD underdog, we’re going to dip into the markets of the Niners’ third-down back.
Jerick McKinnon piled up 10 receptions in the two games that QB Nick Mullens started this year and caught three balls in the second half last week when Mullens relieved Jimmy Garoppolo. If the Niners are trailing, McKinnon will see the most snaps against a defense that left Cook get 60 yards in the passing game a week ago.
PREDICTION: Jerick McKinnon Over 2.5 receptions (-125) and Over 20.5 receiving yards (-117)
KC Scoring Don’t Stop
We didn’t hit many plays last week, but one unique prop we did hit, and subsequently fell in love with, is the “to score in every quarter” prop. The Kansas City Chiefs have scored in 29 of their 34 quarters this year, and have cashed this prop in three straight weeks.
Playing the lowly Jets last week, this was still a plus-money play. We feel this market is underpriced for how often the prop hits. Six teams hit it in Week 8, and 11 in Week 7. The Chiefs will face the Panthers this weekend and, luckily for us, Carolina has allowed its opponents to score in each of its last 14 quarters.
The Panthers allowed the Bears and Saints to score in every quarter in Weeks 5 and 6 and most recently, let the Falcons score in each 15-minute frame in what seemed like a monsoon.
Betting with a KC offense coming off a near 500-yard performance last week is always an enjoyable experience, and when it comes in at +120, it could be a profitable one as well.
PREDICTION: Kansas City to score in every quarter — YES (+120)
Sacks of the Week
With the Philadelphia Eagles on the bye, we’re going to have to look at a different team for this week’s best sack matchup. We’re traveling to the nation’s capital, where the Washington Football Team and the New York Giants face off.
The WTF WFT landed six sacks in their last game against a pair of Dallas QBs, and on the year are taking down opposing signals on average 3.1 times per game — the fifth-highest mark in the league. Washington is also piss-poor at protecting its own QB as it has surrendered 12 sacks in its previous three games. The Football Team has the second-highest adjusted sack rate allowed in the league.
New York’s Daniel Jones may have learned a lesson after his primetime loss to the Buccaneers: it may be better to take a sack than to throw a donkey pass for an interception. The Giants sit 25th in sacks allowed at 2.9 on the season while also getting to opposing QBs 2.7 times per game. Betting on sacks has become one of our favorite and weekly played prop bets this year.
PREDICTION: New York Giants/Washington Over 5.5 sacks (-115)
The Amazing Metcalf
DK Metcalf might be the buzziest player in football in 2020. His size, speed and athleticism are almost unmatched throughout the league. Production-wise, he is tied to the league’s MVP frontrunner who has thrown for 26 TDs in just seven games.
Metcalf is 6-1 O/U on his receiving yards totals this year and has scored a TD in five of his seven games. The only game he didn’t eclipse his receiving total was in Week 7 when the Seahawks avoided Metcalf because of Arizona CB Patrick Peterson. In those other six games, the pacifier-sporting receiver averaged an absurd 109.5 receiving yards.
The former second-rounder gets to face a Bills team in perfect Buffalo weather on Sunday. The Seattle receiver has a four-inch and a 37-pound advantage over Buffalo CB Tre'Davious White. White was one of the better CBs last year, but has 65 percent catch percentage and has had the benefit of playing the Jets and Patriots in back-to-back weeks.
Metcalf’s totals have to be played early as his numbers balloon all through the week with his receiving yards sometimes jumping up 10 yards between opening and closing lines.
PREDICTION: DK Metcalf Over 71.5 receiving yards (-113)
Year-to-date record: 82-58 (59 percent)
NFL Week 9 Prop Betting Card
- New York Jets team total Under 14.5 (-115)
- Seattle Seahawks team total Over 28.5 (-115)
- Derek Carr Over 266.5 passing yards (-115)
- Chase Edmonds Over 68.5 rushing yards (-115)
- -
- Tim Patrick Over 43.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Travis Kelce Over 5.5 receptions (-118)
- Lamar Jackson Over 0.5 interceptions (+100)
- Kyler Murray Over 41.5 rushing yards (-114)
- -
- DeVante Parker Under 59.5 receiving yards (-113)
- Deshaun Watson Over 283.5 passing yards (-115)
- La’Mical Perine Over 0.5 TDs (+340)
- PIT/DAL Special team or defensive TD scored — YES (+200)
- -
- Jerick McKinnon Over 2.5 receptions (-125) and Over 20.5 receiving yards (-117)
- Kansas City to score in every quarter — YES (+120)
- DK Metcalf Over 71.5 receiving yards (-113)
- New York Giants/Washington Over 5.5 sacks (-115)
Where can I find NFL player props?
You can bet on NFL team and player props at nearly every online and casino sportsbooks. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL player and team props in your area.
