NFL betting is back, and Sunday's Week 2 slate is just hours away. We're busy looking into every market in search of value and great numbers — so you don't have to!
Today, we are finding some soft markets against some injured teams, doing some math on the Arizona offense and looking to keep our QB rushing Overs cashing.
We break down the best NFL team and player props and bring you our favorite free picks and predictions for Week 2.
(Just want the picks? Jump down to our Week 2 betting card.)
NFL prop picks for Sunday
Lions Licking Their Wounds
The Green Bay Packers paced the league in points last week and now get to face a Detroit Lions team who may have the most significant injuries on both sides of the ball heading into Week 2. Detroit will be without their best receiver in Kenny Golladay for a second straight week, but it is their offensive line and secondary that have been hit hardest.
Matthew Stafford’s backside guard, Joe Dahl, is out and will be replaced by Oday Aboushi, who has a Pro Football Focus grade of 45.4 which ranks at the bottom of the position. Detroit’s RT, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, is listed as questionable and would be replaced by Tyrell Crosby (three pressures allowed in Week 1 and ranked 52nd out of 64 RTs).
It gets worse for the Lions as CB Desmond Trufant will miss Week 2 versus a Packers team that threw for 364 yards and four TDs in Week 1. We aren’t done yet! Detroit’s slot corner was placed on the IR this week and the team will start third-overall pick Jeff Okudah.
Detroit allowed 27 points to Mitch Trubisky and the Chicago Bears last week and there is no reason why Aaron Rodgers can’t put up 28 or more in the 2020 home opener at Lambeau.
PREDICTION: Green Bay Packers Over 27.5 points.
Gesicki of it All
The Miami Dolphins will likely duke it out with New York Jets for AFC East basement inferiority. This week, they face a Buffalo Bills team that is fresh off a dismantling of the Jets in Week 1 but will be without two of their starting linebackers in Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds. Milano was the fourth-best coverage LB per PFF in 2019 and Edmunds was the 16th-overall pick in 2018. This is still a top-tier defense, but Miami could exploit some of these matchups.
The biggest benefactor of these injuries could be Miami TE Mike Gesicki. Gesicki tied for the second-most team targets in Week 1 (5) as the TE caught three balls for 30 yards. His prop totals sit at 4.5 receptions and 34.5 receiving yards. In 16 games last year, Gesicki went over 4.5 catches just three times but did manage to reach 34 yards in seven of his final 12 games in 2019, including one game versus Buffalo.
PREDICTION: Mike Gesicki Over 34.5 receiving yards (-115)
Jonesing for QB Rushing
After one week of football, QB Daniel Jones is the best rusher on the New York Giants. Jones rushed four times last week for 22 yards, which were 16 yards more than RB Saquon Barkley. Through his 13 NFL starts, Jones is averaging 21.5 yards rushing per game and hasn’t run for more than 15 in just five matches. This week, his rushing total sits at a tasty 15.5 yards.
Last week, the immobile Stafford took off five times for 23 yards against the Bears’ defense, marking the most for Stafford since Week 2 of 2017. Jones’ rushing total can be found as high as 22.5 on some books, so the 15.5 feels like an even better bargain.
PREDICTION: Daniel Jones Over 15.5 rushing yards.(-115)
Hopping on Hopkins
The Arizona Cardinals want to play fast this year as Kyler Murray’s offense ran 78 plays from scrimmage last week against one of the league’s best defenses in the San Francisco 49ers. The 78 plays were tied for the second-most plays in the league but with only a 52 percent advantage in time of possession, no team ran more plays per time in Week 1.
WR DeAndre Hopkins saw 16 targets last Sunday, which were the second-highest amount among WRs. He hauled in 14 of those looks for 151 yards and will look to do the same Sunday against Washington who had the sixth-worst pass DVOA defense a year ago.
Some simple math gives us some confidence in a Hopkins Over play: 75 total plays, 40 passes, 25 percent of target share equals (at minimum) 10 targets. Hopkins’ receiving floor is seven to eight catches in the league's fastest-paced offense, while his reception total can be found as low as 6.5 (+100) and as high as 7.5 (-140).
PREDICTION: DeAndre Hopkins Over 6.5 receptions (+100)
NFL prop picks for Saturday
A Sextet of TDs
The Minnesota Vikings allowed over 6.9 yards per play, which was the second-highest in Week 1. It was one spot below their opponents, the Packers, who allowed the Vikes’ offense to drop a league-best 7.8 yards per play. Minnesota will now face an Indianapolis team that didn’t punt last Sunday and amassed the third-most offensive yards at 425.
Sitting with the fourth-highest total on the board, these two teams showed tons of offensive power in the opener with both teams sitting in the Top 8 in yards per pass attempt. Their defenses were also picked apart by the pass last week, with both passing defenses allowing over 7.5 yards per pass attempt.
The Vikings had nine total TDs scored in their Week 1 game against the Packers, while the Colts left a lot of points on the board last week in a game that saw five total TDs.
PREDICTION: Minnesota/Indianapolis Over 5.5 total TDs -110
Order of Waller Jacobs
The Raiders’ 2020 first-round pick, WR Henry Ruggs, missed practices on Thursday and Friday, and is on the wrong side of playing ahead of Monday’s match versus the Saints at home. He played injured in Week 1 but still caught 3 of 5 targets for 55 yards in limited action. Already missing WR Tyrell Williams (I.R.) and possibly Ruggs, QB Derek Carr will have to trust TE Darren Waller and RB Josh Jacobs in the passing game versus the Saints.
Jacobs and Waller finished second and third in team targets last week with 10 catches on 14 targets combined. Moving the ball on the ground could be difficult for Las Vegas, as the Saints finished 2019 with the fifth-best DVOA rush defense, which could force Carr and the passing game. With a game total of 49.5 and Las Vegas a six-point dog, the game script could also be in the favor of the passing game.
PREDICTION: Josh Jacobs Over 20.5 receiving yards (-112) and Darren Waller Over 5.5 receptions (-105)
Please Charge Battery
Thursday Night Football gave us a window into how bad the Cincinnati Bengals defense is. Cleveland totaled over 400 yards of offense on a short week and picked up huge yards on the ground, rushing for 215 yards on TNF. Last week, the Los Angeles Chargers and QB Tyrod Taylor could only manage one TD against the Bengals. Cincy allowed five TDs on Thursday.
This week, the Chargers are at home to take on the Kansas City Chiefs, and with L.A.'s team total sitting at 18.5 points, even the books don’t think much about this offense. With Kansas City establishing a successful run game, and Patrick Mahomes taking very few shots downfield last week, the Chiefs could dominate the time of possession in this divisional game.
Looking at the markets, Taylor’s Under 1.5 TDs is too expensive (-185) and the LAC total touchdowns U1.5 (+162) is tempting, but we are taking the team total of 18.5 and hitting the Under. The Chargers made three trips into the red zone last week and walked away with just one TD versus a generous Bengals defense. Things will be more difficult come Sunday.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles Chargers team total Under 18.5 (-115)
Stacking Indy RBs
Colts running back Marlon Mack is out for the season after an Achilles injury derailed his season early last week. Backup RB Nyheim Hines totaled 67 yards with Mack’s exit, but was used more in the passing game (eight catches on eight targets). Rookie RB Johnathan Taylor (no Thomas) should see more of the early-down rushing load against a Minnesota defense that allowed nearly five yards per rush in Week 1.
The Packers targeted their running backs 10 times versus the Vikes last week, as we think Hines (passing) and Taylor (rushing) can return value in different roles on Sunday. The Colts have one of the league’s best O-lines while QB Philip Rivers loves passing to his running backs. Game scripts are tough to predict, but when betting on both backs in the running and passing games, we can avoid a lack of usage of either one.
PREDICTION: Jonathan Taylor Over 59.5 rushing yards (-120) and Nyheim Hines Over 22.5 receiving yards (-115)
NFL prop picks for Friday
Lamb Jam
The Atlanta Falcons secondary is not a unit fans will be happy with this year. Although they gave up “just” 299 yards passing to the Seahawks last week, it was an easy 299 yards, as Russell Wilson completed 31-of-35 passes and didn’t throw with a defender less than a yard away until late in the third quarter. This week, the Falcons will face an angry Dallas offense that has one of the best receiving corps in all of football.
Three of Atlanta’s starting cornerbacks have a PFF rating in the bottom 23 percent of the league. The birds really got gauged in the slot where Seattle’s Tyler Lockett caught all eight of his targets for 92 yards.
Cowboys rookie WR CeeDee Lamb played 82 percent of offensive snaps last week and played primarily out of the slot position in three-WR sets. Lamb caught five of his six targets for 59 yards and could be in line for a bigger role with Blake Jarwin out for the season.
PREDICTION: CeeDee Lamb Over 61.5 receiving yards (-114)
Austin Powers
The Los Angeles Chargers didn’t win last Sunday’s game as much as Cincinnati lost it. Running back Austin Ekeler rushed for 94 yards on 19 attempts, but it was his absence in the passing game that left some scratching their heads. Ekeler averaged 6.8 targets last year but saw just one last week. He should expect to see an uptick in volume in the passing game against Kansas City on Sunday.
David Johnson averaged over 10 yards per reception last week versus the Chiefs as Kansas City has historically struggled to stop RBs in the passing game. The Chiefs were one of only two teams to allow over 1,000 receiving yards to RBs last year.
PREDICTION: Austin Ekeler Over 39.5 receiving yards (-115)
Wide Open Davis
Tennessee WR Corey Davis went off last Monday with a 7/101/0 on eight targets and collected his first 100-yard game since November 11, 2018. Some may look at this performance as an outlier as Davis went over 80 yards receiving just once in 15 games last year. But with fellow receiver A.J. Brown out for the Titans’ Week 2 matchup against the Jaguars, Davis could match last week’s performance as the focal point of the Tennessee passing attack.
The former 5th-overall pick has only averaged 22 receiving yards per game over his six career games against Jacksonville, but the Jaguars’ pass defense allowed 363 yards to Philip Rivers last week, and the Colts’ top-two receivers saw 18 targets which they turned into 124 yards.
Davis’ yardage total sits at a terribly low 44.5 yards, which is an automatic Over bet on our end especially with Brown’s eight Week 1 targets open for grabs.
PREDICTION: Corey Davis Over 44.5 receiving yards (-115)
Do or Die for Ry
We love a good QB rushing total more than any other player prop bet, as a possible sack can turn into a 12-yard gain and a winning bet at any time. When looking for games and players to handicap this market, our two biggest factors that are often correlated are young QBs and bad teams. Last week Joe Burrow, Daniel Jones, Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins all hit their over rushing totals, but Week 2 is a little more difficult as lines get sharper with more data.
Ryan Fitzpatrick may not be young, but his team is certainly bad. Last week he ran five times for 18 yards against one of the smartest defenses in the league. This week, with a rushing total of 14.5, he faces a familiar Bills defense that didn’t have to deal with a QB that can escape pressure in Week 1.
Fitzpatrick is playing for his job on Sunday and will do whatever he can to keep plays alive. Fitz not-so-magic averaged 3.6 rushing attempts per game last year and could cash Over bets on one or two scampers this week as his total is only 15.5 rushing yards.
PREDICTION: Ryan Fitzpatrick Over 15.5 rushing yards (-115)
NFL prop picks for Thursday
Mostert energy
The San Francisco 49ers are so desperate at wide receiver that they just signed Mohamed Sanu, who was released by the receiver-needy Patriots. The Niners could be without four of their receivers ahead of Sunday’s game against the New York Jets. So how does Niners coach Kyle Shanahan offset this lack of skill in the passing game: he gets his running backs involved.
Last week, the 49ers’ backfield accumulated 14 targets, which they turned into nine catches for 162 yards and two touchdowns. Both Raheem Mostert and Jerick McKinnon saw five targets and scored a TD but the former gained 95 yards thanks to a 76-yard catch and run for a score.
If you’re trying to decide which SF RB to take, Mostert saw nearly double the snaps that McKinnon saw in Week 1.
PREDICTION: Raheem Mostert Over 1.5 receptions (-120) and Over 22.5 receiving yards (-115).
Core Andrews
It surprises nobody that the Baltimore Ravens’ offense is up there with the best in the league. The Ravens are coming off a 38-point performance last week and could have put up more if Cleveland was competitive. The biggest beneficiary of Lamar Jackson’s talents in Week 1 was TE Mark Andrews, who saw the most snaps out of any receiver, tight end or running back. Andrews hauled in five of his six targets for 58 yards and two scores as the TE led the NFL in red-zone targets in Week 1 with four.
This week, Andrews and the Ravens will take on the Houston Texans, who allowed the fifth-most yards to opposing tight ends a year ago and let Travis Kelce in the end zone in Week 1. Last year versus the Texans, Andrews went 4/76/1 and ended the year with 10 TDs, a number he could surpass this year if teams can keep up with Baltimore.
PREDICTION: Mark Andrews Over 62.5 receiving yards (-114) and anytime TD score (+125)
Staying grounded on Sunday night
The Seattle Seahawks put up 38 points against Atlanta’s terrible secondary last week as Russell Wilson threw for 322 yards and four TDs. This week they will face the New England Patriots, who had the league’s best pass defense a year ago. Seattle can be a predictable team to guess their mode of attack as it is simple: run against most teams but unleash the passing game versus bad pass defenses. This week we could see a more run-heavy game script from Pete Carroll’s team.
Carroll told the media after his Week 1 win that the 13 carries between RBs Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde were not enough and that they need to get more. He was also quoted as saying, “We love running the ball. We always have, and those guys will get more carries as we move down through the schedule.”
Pete Carroll on the running back rotation yesterday and Carlos Hyde getting seven carries and Chris Carson six: pic.twitter.com/rKJyrwlx5q
— Bob Condotta (@bcondotta) September 14, 2020
Wilson might not see 35 pass attempts in Week 2 against the Pats tough D as Seattle looks to get the running game going. We hate to do it, but we are fading a possible MVP (+650) in primetime on Sunday night.
PREDICTION: Russell Wilson Under 262.5 passing yards (-114)
Burrowing a short week
Cincinnati Bengals rookie QB Joe Burrow had a mixed bag of results in his first NFL game. He did look good late (minus the INT) driving the Bengals in the no-huddle from deep in his own territory. He also had a lot of time to plan for the Los Angeles Chargers’ defense heading into the season. This week, the first-overall pick doesn’t have that benefit as Thursday’s game gives him just two walk-throughs to figure out the Cleveland Browns.
Having Cleveland give up 270 passing yards last week to Lamar Jackson is helping us get a better number on Burrow’s yardage total. Last season, Cleveland finished with the seventh-lowest average in passing yards per game against (216) and will take on Burrow, who has even less time than usual to prepare with Wednesday being a travel day and gameday on Thursday.
The Cincy QB’s rushing total (25.5 yards) is set a little too high this week for our liking, one week after opening at 14.5 yards. We are passing on it Thursday and just going Under on his air total.
PREDICTION: Joe Burrow Under 236.5 passing yards (-115)
NFL Week 2 prop betting card
- Green Bay Packers Over 27.5 points (-120)
- Mike Gesicki Over 34.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Daniel Jones Over 15.5 rushing yards (-120)
- DeAndre Hopkins Over 6.5 receptions (+100)
- -
- Los Angeles Chargers team total Under 18.5 (-115)
- Josh Jacobs Over 20.5 receiving yards (-112) and Darren Waller Over 5.5 receptions (-105)
- Minnesota/Indianapolis Over 5.5 total TDs -110
- Jonathan Taylor Over 59.5 rushing yards (-120) and Nyheim Hines Over 22.5 receiving yards (-115)
- -
- CeeDee Lamb Over 61.5 receiving yards (-114)
- Austin Ekeler Over 39.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Corey Davis Over 44.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Ryan Fitzpatrick Over 15.5 rushing yards (-115)
- -
- Raheem Mostert Over 1.5 receptions (-120) and Over 22.5 receiving yards (-115)????
- Mark Andrews Over 62.5 receiving yards (-114) and anytime TD score (+125)
- Russell Wilson Under 262.5 passing yards (-114)
- Joe Burrow Under 236.5 passing yards (-115)
Where can I find NFL player props?
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