NFL betting continues into Week 5. We're busy looking into every market in search of value and great numbers — so you don't have to!
Today, we are doubling down on a Seattle receiver, trying to predict a new backfield competition, and finding the best prop bet for Cincinnati as a 13-point underdog.
We break down the best NFL team and player props and bring you our favorite free picks and predictions for Week 5.
(Just want the picks? Jump down to our Week 4 betting card.)
NFL Prop Picks for Sunday
Undervaluing Metcalf
We’re still scratching our heads about the totals in the DK Metcalf markets. We have already hit the Over on his total yards but there’s still more meat on the bone for us to tear away at.
Metcalf has not caught more than four balls in any game this year, but his average catch is going for 25.2 yards, which is better than any other receiver in the league. Minnesota has a pair of six-foot-two CBs but Metcalf has two inches and over 40 pounds on either defensive back. There isn’t a harder matchup in the league for DBs than Seattle’s biggest receiver.
In the last four weeks, Metcalf has long receptions of 36, 62, 54 and 38 yards. He has the best QB in the league when it comes to dropping dimes deep downfield. On the defensive side of things, the Vikings are the second-worst team in the league, allowing 8.2 yards per pass attempt. Minnesota allowed four passes of 23 yards or longer last week versus the Texans, and five in Week 3 to the Titans. Metcalf has the size to win nearly every deep-ball battle and his longest reception total, set at 25.5 yards, is too low.
PREDICTION: DK Metcalf Over 25.5 longest reception (-120)
Fact and Mixon
Bengals’ RB Joe Mixon is coming off his best game of the year with 30 touches for 181 yards and three scores. He’s fifth among running backs in routes ran and caught all six of his targets last week. Mixon hasn’t exploded in the receiving game, which is giving us a great number on his receiving total (21.5 yards).
With Cincinnati a 13-point underdog against the Ravens, Bengals coach Zac Taylor will have to find a way to get his best back the ball in a negative game script, and that should include getting Mixon a steady dose of passing work. Mixon has been limited this week at practice but that shouldn’t deter backers as the Cincy RB was limited heading into last week’s big game as well.
PREDICTION: Joe Mixon Over 21.5 receiving yards (-121)
Accidents Will Jackson
Austin Ekeler broke our hearts last week, as the Chargers RB was lifted early with a hamstring injury that has landed him on the IL. Fourth-round rookie Joshua Kelley saw the most action in the backfield, but fumbles in back-to-back weeks may cost the green runner. Meanwhile, Justin Jackson made his way back from injury last week and saw nine total touches.
Last season, Jackson averaged 6.9 yards per rush in limited work as the third man in a good backfield. New Orleans isn’t an ideal matchup for a running back, as they own the league’s fourth-best DVOA rush defense, but getting the backfield involved on the ground as well as in the air should be a priority for the Chargers, and Jackson should come out ahead in the battle for touches versus the rookie Kelley.
Only Jackson’s TD market is open as of Saturday but the way the props are looking, it seems the books are expecting more from Kelley than Jackson, which could give us some great totals when they open. As for now, Jackson at +350 for an anytime TD is a no-brainer.
PREDICTION: Justin Jackson anytime TD (+350)
Kicking and Screaming
Looking to bet against the weather this week? There aren’t a lot of problematic conditions in Week 5, but Seattle is expected to have rain (70%) and the strongest winds out of any game (13 mph). Kicking conditions could be affected with the crosswinds, and with such a high game total (56.5), teams may elect to go for TDs, as Miami proved last week that field goals won’t beat Seattle’s offense.
Coincidentally, the Vikings and Seahawks are also in the bottom-four in field goals attempted per game at 1.5 and 0.5 respectively. They are also the two worst teams at field goals made per game, at a combined 1.5 per contest.
Minnesota’s Dan Bailey has yet to make a kick from 42 yards or longer this year and is just 1-for-3 from 40-plus this season. Seattle’s Jason Myers might have the easiest kicking job in the league, attempting just two field goals all year, as he’s too busy kicking extra points. We don’t always bet on kicking props, but when we do, we want more than one angle in our favor.
PREDICTION: Minnesota/Seattle longest field goal Under 46.5 yards.
NFL Prop Picks for Saturday
USA DK
Seattle’s DK Metcalf is averaging over 100 yards receiving per game and has topped his receiving yard prop in all four games this year. So why is his yardage total set at under 70 yards again this week? We have no idea.
Metcalf is tied to the league’s hottest QB and the NFL’s best offense, yet his prop total is just 66.5 yards heading into the weekend. His Sunday matchup versus the Minnesota Vikings has the week’s highest total at 57 points as both teams’ defenses are expected to be embarrassed.
The Vikings have not seen a legit No. 1 receiver since Week 1 but have allowed a 100-yard performance in each of the past three weeks. Minnesota CBs Holton Hill and Kris Boyd are also questionable ahead of the Sunday night tilt. We have written about this play for each of the last four weeks and are banging the DK drums again in Week 5 as this line is a good 10-15 yards light for a player who leads the league in yards per catch at 25-plus yards.
PREDICTION: DK Metcalf Over 65.5 receiving yards (-120)
Jefferson’s Day
Sticking with the Minnesota/Seattle game, Vikings’ receiver Justin Jefferson has put together back-to-back 100-yard receiving performances as the 2020 22nd-overall pick’s role in the offense has expanded in each week. The WR has seen his snap count rise from 67% in Week 1 to 77% last week. The LSU pass-catcher sits third in the league in yards per catch (21.8) and has drawn 14 targets over the last two weeks. This week, he will get a massive matchup against the league’s most generous secondary that will also be without its best player in Jamal Adams.
The Seahawks have given up an astounding 1345 yards to receivers through four weeks, 500 yards more than the second-place Browns. With Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense forcing the pace of play, Kirk Cousins and this improving offense should have plenty of chances to trade shots with the ‘Hawks, giving Jefferson ample opportunities to surpass his tasty receiving yardage total of 65.5 yards.
PREDICTION: Justin Jefferson Over 65.5 receiving yards (-115)
Hunts Not to Like
We don’t like to take Unders in player props, but the Cleveland/Indianapolis game has multiple factors when looking to fade a player. The Cleveland Browns are the league’s best rushing team, gaining over 200 yards per game in 2020, but a matchup with the Colts’ No. 5 DVOA rush defense could spell trouble for Kareem Hunt and the running game.
Hunt has been limited in practice this week and only saw 11 carries in Week 4 when starter Nick Chubb was injured and left the game in the first quarter (Chubb is out indefinitely). Instead of getting the bulk of the running work, the Browns gave undrafted RB D’Ernest Johnson 13 rushes, which he turned into 95 yards. We doubt Johnson sees anything near those yards per carry total in Week 5, but given the possible minor injuries, a tough defensive matchup, and a competent backup, we’re fading the best running back on the league’s best running team.
PREDICTION: Kareem Hunt Under 72.5 rushing yards (-110)
Watson to Get the First Win
The Houston Texans will begin life without Bill O’Brien in Week 5, but it’s the state of their opponent that has us looking for some profitable props. The Jacksonville Jaguars have the league’s worst DVOA pass defense and could be without three of their best defensive starters in LB Myles Jack, DE Josh Allen and CB C.J. Henderson for Sunday’s tilt versus Deshaun Watson’s offense.
Houston will have the new-coach motivational factor going, but it still has a bottom-five defense that will force the offense to keep pace and not play comfortably with a lead. Watson is coming off his best game of the year last week versus the Vikings, as the QB tossed two TDs and 300 yards. With Will Fuller healthy and posting 100-yards in two of his four games this year, Watson should have more time to make plays with Allen banged up and questionable, while also having an easier time downfield with Henderson. We like Watson putting up a big game and getting the Texans their first win of 2020.
PREDICTION: Deshaun Watson Over 292.5 passing yards (-115)
NFL Prop Picks for Friday
The Unstoppable Jones
Well, it took the books four weeks but they finally moved Daniel Jones’ rushing total into the 20s. Jones is a perfect 4-0 O/U on his rushing total to open the year, as it’s been one of the easiest and most profitable player prop bets of the 2020 NFL season. Jones leads the Giants in rushing yards by 85 yards and is averaging 34.3 yards per game on 7.6 per carry. Only Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray and Cam Newton have more QB rushing yards.
With some QBs, betting on a rushing total can be an all-or-none scenario but Jones offers a very safe floor as he hasn’t been held under 20 yards rushing through four games. The Giants take on the Cowboys Sunday and Dallas is allowing over four rushing attempts per game to opposing QBs. The Giants should also have a better chance at running more plays and moving the ball against Dallas’ brutal defense. Jones hasn’t thrown a TD in three weeks but he sure has been running.
PREDICTION: Daniel Jones Over 25.5 rushing yards (-115)
Wentz With Benefits
Sticking with QB rushing totals, there is one QB who has been stacking yards on the ground over the last two weeks but the books are still offering sub-18 yard rushing totals. Carson Wentz has had to run for his life as injuries to his offensive line have crippled the team’s ability to run a balanced offense. Wentz has run for 65 and 37 yards in back-to-back weeks and will face the No. 3 Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense that is sure to chase the Eagles’ QB.
Philadelphia will be short-handed at WR again in Week 5 and even the players it is suiting up are coming off injuries and are at a big risk for reaggravation (Lane Johnson and Desean Jackson). Wentz should be on the move again against a tough Steelers D that could have the Philly QB finding nothing downfield and forcing him to gain yards on the ground. This is our favorite play of the week.
PREDICTION: Carson Wentz Over 14.5 rush yards (-113)
Antonio Up
Dwayne Haskins is out as QB in Washington and former Panther and Ron Rivera favorite Kyle Allen is in. Allen saw 12 starts last year and peppered RB Christian McCaffrey in the passing game with 8.43 targets per game. Washington doesn’t have CMC, but they do have rookie RB Antonio Gibson. The third-round pick is coming off an 82-yard receiving game and has steadily seen his role in the passing game increase week-by-week.
Gibson averaged 19.3 yards per catch in Memphis last year as a senior and could see himself as Washington’s No. 2 in receiving yards with a good showing on Sunday. Washington plays the Rams Sunday and L.A. gave up 50 yards on four grabs to Buffalo’s Devin Singletary in Week 3. The running back’s totals all look good, making Gibson our weekly RB triple-down.
PREDICTION: Antonio Gibson Over 2.5 receptions (-120), Over 16.5 receiving yards (-118), longest reception Over 10.5 yards (-110)
TDs of Perception
Sometimes public perception can play a big role in how certain prop bets are set. Take, for example, the Seattle Seahawks. Everyone knows Russell Wilson and that offense are like no other in the league and that their defense also gives up yards and huge plays. For this week’s matchup vs the Minnesota Vikings, the total for the longest TD scored prop sits at 46.5 yards. Even though Seattle is scoring 35.5 points and throwing for over 300 yards per play, the Over 46.5 yards longest TD has cashed in just one of Seattle’s four games this year.
Minnesota has been laughed at in the early goings of the 2020 season. However, the Vikings have started to play some competitive games since Week 3 and have not allowed a TD of 46 yards or longer this year. Betting against the MVP front-runner and a Minnesota Offense that’s really finding its identity is never a fun experience but the numbers don’t lie and what is sometimes perceived isn’t always the truth. 47-yard TDs are few and far between.
PREDICTION: Minnesota/Seattle longest TD Under 46.5 yards (-115)
NFL Prop Picks for Thursday
The New York Wright Flyers
The New York Jets may be winless, but at least they were the favorite (-1) last week versus Denver. The Green Machine lost to Denver on TNF and also lost starting QB Sam Darnold. Darnold will miss Week 5 versus the Arizona Cardinals and check-down king Joe Flacco will start in his place. Already lacking skilled players, Flacco will have the reins of the league’s worst offense.
Last week, the Jets put up 28 points but scored just two touchdowns: one on offense and one on defense. This season, the Jets have scored TDs in the red zone at the second-lowest rate in the league at 22 percent. The best team, Seattle, scores TDs on 86 percent of its red-zone trips. This offense is bad and will be even worse with the aged arm of Flacco attempting to move the sticks.
Arizona’s defense is nothing to brag about, but this Jets' offense just went from a ‘97 Corolla in Darnold to bumming rides off your friends in Flacco.
PREDICTION: New York Jets Under 1.5 TDs (+100)
Fading Foles
Last week, the NFL echo-chamber was loving on Chicago QB Nick Foles who, finally dispelled Mitch Trubisky in a relief appearance in Week 3. Well, the Indianapolis Colts had a full week to game plan against the new Chicago starting QB and it went terribly for Matt Nagy and the Bears.
Foles led the Bears to a whopping three points through the first three quarters before a garbage-time TD pushed the 3-1 team to 11 points. Chicago managed just 265 yards of total offense, which was the third-lowest total in Week 4. On Thursday, the Buccaneers and their No. 2-ranked DVOA defense come to Soldier Field and Foles could be in for much more of the same as last week.
Chicago managed just 26 rushing yards in Week 4, which put a lot of pressure on Foles to move the chains and he failed miserably. Now on a short week, we aren’t expecting anything different than we saw last week, especially with the Bucs averaging 1.7 interceptions over the last three weeks.
PREDICTION: Chicago team total Under 20.5 (-130)
Davis Dancing in the Spotlight
The Carolina Panthers’ offense has looked pretty impressive without its best player in Christian McCaffrey. In the two games that CMC has missed — both wins — Carolina has put up similar production in yards per play but are scoring nearly three points more. A big reason for this success is the play from backup RB Mike Davis.
Davis has 202 yards from scrimmage and two scores over the last two weeks and is accounting for nearly 30 percent of the Panthers’ offense. With McCaffrey likely returning in the next two weeks, the Panthers could lean on Davis a little more before his role is diminished. Davis couldn’t pick a better time to showcase his skills than Week 5 as his Panthers will take on the Atlanta Falcons and their 25th-ranked DVOA defense (31st-ranked pass defense).
Davis has topped his rushing totals in back-to-back weeks and we like his potential in the passing game versus Atlanta who gave up 13 catches for 135 yards and a score to Green Bay running backs last week.
PREDICTION: Mike Davis Over 94.5 total yards (-115) and anytime TD (+115)
First-Half Fallout
No team in the league is giving up more points in the first half this year than the Dallas Cowboys. Through four weeks, Jerry’s boys are allowing a massive 21 first-half points per game. This week, Dallas’ first-half struggles will be put to the test against the New York Giants and their 31st-ranked scoring offense.
Putting up an NFL-worst 11.2 points per game, Daniel Jones and the Giants are looking at a first-half team total of 9.5 points on Sunday. Heading into Week 5, New York has had to play three Top-seven DVOA defenses and their non-existent running game will force Jones to pass against the league’s 25th-worst passing defense. Jones still has plenty of weapons in the passing game and is more than capable of putting up 10-plus points in the first 30 minutes.
PREDICTION: New York Giants first-half team total Over 9.5 (-120)
NFL Week 5 prop betting card
- DK Metcalf Over 25.5 longest reception (-120)
- Joe Mixon Over 21.5 receiving yards (-121)
- Justin Jackson anytime TD (+350)
- Minnesota/Seattle longest field goal Under 46.5 yards
- -
- DK Metcalf Over 65.5 receiving yards (-120)
- Justin Jefferson Over 65.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Kareem Hunt Under 72.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Deshaun Watson Over 292.5 passing yards (-115)
- -
- Daniel Jones Over 25.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Carson Wentz Over 14.5 rush yards (-113)
- Antonio Gibson Over 2.5 receptions (-120), Over 16.5 receiving yards (-118), longest reception Over 10.5 yards (-110)
- Minnesota/Seattle longest TD Under 46.5 yards (-115)
- -
- New York Jets Under 1.5 TDs (+100)
- Chicago team total Under 20.5 (-130)
- Mike Davis Over 94.5 total yards (-115) and anytime TD (+115)
- New York Giants first-half team total Over 9.5 (-120)
Where can I find NFL player props?
You can bet on NFL team and player props at nearly every online and casino sportsbooks. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL player and team props in your area.
