NFL betting continues into Week 6. We're busy looking into every market in search of value and great numbers — so you don't have to!
Today, we're looking for the best INT matchup of the week, hoping a New York QB can keep throwing up donuts and begrudgingly supporting a breakout performance from Week 5.
We break down the best NFL team and player props and bring you our favorite free picks and predictions for Week 6.
(Just want the picks? Jump down to our Week 6 betting card.)
NFL Prop Picks for Sunday
Watson Tomatoes
No team has intercepted more balls than the Tennessee Titans over the last three weeks. Coming off a two-pick game against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills on Tuesday, the Titans have also intercepted their previous two QB opponents twice. This week poses another great matchup in the turnover department as Deshaun Watson and his five total INTs roll into town.
Coming off back-to-back 300-yard games, Watson should be going through the air 33-38 times with a neutral game script and could actually see more passing, as Tennessee’s opponents are averaging 40 passes per since Week 3. The Titans have athletic DBs that can pick a ball but they are also average or worse at coverage which could be a point of attack for the Texans. Over his career, Watson has 21 INTs in 21 road games and threw two picks in his only start against the Titans last year.
Shop around. This prop can be found as high as -125 and as low as -180 on some books.
PREDICTION: Deshaun Watson Over 0.5 interceptions (-125)
Betting Against the Best
The Bills gave up two TDs to tight end Jonnu Smith last week as the Titans’ TE was targeted seven times and grabbed five balls for 40 yards. Coverage linebacker Matt Milano missed the game but was back to being a full participant at practice this week. Milano also missed Week 2 and the Bills gave up an 8/130/1 to Miami TE Mike Gesicki. In the three games that Milano has played in, the Bills are yet to give up a receiving TD to an opposing TE.
It’s tough to bet against the best TE on the best offense, but Buffalo’s weaknesses lie in its run defense and coverage on the outside — looking at you Josh Norman. With such a quick turnaround for Buffalo from Tuesday, KC could get up early and evaluate their running game ahead of the Le’Veon Bell addition. Travis Kelce has three TDs on the year with all three coming on red-zone targets. If Buffalo and Milano can keep Kelce in check in the RZ, then we have a good chance of winning some money.
PREDICTION: Travis Kelce Under 0.5 TD receptions (-112)
The Donut Man
The TD column on Daniel Jones’ stat page is getting pretty lonely. Since Week 2, the New York Giants’ QB has failed to throw even a single touchdown pass, and that includes two games against bottom-10 pass defenses. This week, the books think Jones will be closer to scoring two TDs than just one or zero, as his Under 1.5 TDs is priced at a reasonable -128. His opponent, the Washington Football Team, is 1-4 on the year but still has a respectable defense that is ranked No. 4 in total DVOA
No QB has tossed more than two TDs against Washington’s No. 5 pass defense this year. Washington has faced four straight teams that sit in the top half of the league in points per game. New York, on the other hand, is scoring 16.2 points per game through five weeks and has the league’s worst offense per Football Outsiders. This line should be set at a flat 1.0 but that doesn’t exist in most player prop markets. We have a lot of Unders this week and Jones is going to make it one more.
PREDICTION: Daniel Jones Under 1.5 passing TDs (-128)
Chasing Chase
Second-round rookie WR Chase Claypool exploded on the scene last week with 11 targets and a 7/110/3. His 11 targets were more than fellow receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Washington combined and receiver Diontae Johnson has been ruled out of Sunday’s game against the Cleveland Browns. Claypool saw 69% of the snaps last week and that total should go up with Johnson sitting and JuJu struggling to fill the boxscore.
In Week 4, the Browns allowed four players to top 70 yards receiving and are currently one of three teams in the league to allow over 1000 yards to WRs through five weeks. Cleveland DB Denzel Ward (19th out of 116 CBs per PFF) is the best outside coverage player on the team, but with Claypool running routes out of the slot at a 33% rate, he can avoid the better coverage.
We don’t love jumping on a flash-in-the-pan player, but his matchup is great and Big Ben is in need of some WR production with JJSS’s struggles.
PREDICTION: Chase Claypool Over 58.5 receiving yards (-113)
NFL Prop Picks for Saturday
Down on the Browns
The Cleveland Browns could possibly take over the top spot in the AFC North with a win versus the Steelers on Sunday but a litany of injuries could prove too much. The Browns are really hurting at the offensive skilled positions as QB Baker Mayfield, WR Odell Beckham, WR Jarvis Landry and RB Kareem Hunt are all questionable for Sunday’s tilt. Already without All-Pro guard Wyatt Teller, a group of less than 100% offensive players could prove incapable of moving the ball against Pittsburgh’s No. 7 DVOA defense (No. 1 rush defense).
Outside of a 74-yard Miles Sanders rushing TD, the Eagles managed just 262 yards of offense on 56 plays (4.67 yards per play) against the Steelers a week ago. If Mayfield is trying to tough out a start and gets hit early against a team that sacked Carson Wentz five times last week, we could see backup QB Case Keenum. That would be a major downgrade to the Cleveland offense.
PREDICTION: Cleveland Browns team total Under 23.5 (-120)
No Cook Does Not Mean No Run
The Atlanta Falcons have played the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers on the road this year and over those two games, the 0-5 Falcons allowed 760 passing yards. Those may be two of the better passing teams in the league, but those numbers are well over their season averages.
This week, the Vikings host the birds and will be without RB Dalvin Cook. One would think this would be a great spot for Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins to light up the Falcons defense, but the truth is: Minnesota is a run-first team and Week 6 starter Alexander Mattison is more than capable of moving the sticks.
Cousins’ passing total sits at over 280 yards which might look fine in a plus matchup, but considering he's averaging just 220 yards a game and hasn't topped 260 yards all year including games against some of the worst pass defenses, 280 yards is a stretch. Minnesota is also averaging the lowest plays per game at home at 55.5 and considering they are rushing the ball at the sixth-highest rate in the league (30 times a game) and could be playing with positive game script throughout the game, we are fading the yards total.
PREDICTION: Kirk Cousins Under 287.5 passing yards (-115)
Sack Attack
Since Week 3, games in which the Eagles have played are averaging 8.33 combined sacks. Carson Wentz has done his fair share of getting hauled down, averaging over three sacks taken a game over his last three games. The Philly defense, despite injuries, has totaled 14 sacks over the last three and will have a less-mobile Lamar Jackson this week after the Baltimore quarterback rushed for just three yards last week with a possible “sore knee”.
The Eagles’ offensive line is more porous than a Connect-Four grid and is dealing with its umpteenth injury this year as G Matt Pryor has COVID and will miss Week 6. With Lane Johnson possibly missing this week as well, it could be a long game for Wentz with his offense moving backward. Total sacks has become one of our favorite weekly plays and is a market that hopefully grows. Look for this bet to open closer to Sunday but the line is never higher than 5.5.
PREDICTION: Baltimore/Philadelphia Over 5.5 total sacks
Big Spread - Low Total
The New England Patriots will head into Week 6’s matchup with the Denver Broncos fully rested, having last played on October 5. The Pats will have Cam Newton under center which is a big reason for being 9.5-point favorites. However, with a total of just 44.5 (the lowest on the board), those NE points come at a premium in a game that isn’t expected to have much scoring.
New England’s team total sits at 27.5 points which is 62% of the total. Denver’s defense is not as bad as expected without Von Miller, as the Broncos own the No. 10 DVOA defense and are better at stopping the run (No. 7 rush defense) which is the strength of the Pats' offense. With some competent QB play under center for Denver with Drew Lock likely drawing the start and the Patriots league-leading rushing rate, we like the Under on New England’s total. The Patriots are scoring 24.4 points per game but have played three bottom-10 DVOA defenses.
PREDICTION: New England Patriots team total Under 27.5 (-118)
NFL Prop Picks for Friday
Golladay Inn
The Jacksonville Jaguars could be down three of their best defensive players again in Week 5 as DE Josh Allen, CB C.J. Henderson and LB Myles Jack are all questionable ahead of their Week 6 matchup with the Detroit Lions. Detroit is coming off the bye and will look to run up the score (total of 54.5) against a defense that allowed 486 yards on just 58 plays to the Texans last week. Jacksonville’s 8.4 yards per play allowed was the highest mark of any team last week.
The Detroit offense will have had an extra week to recover, which means WR Kenny Golladay will be close to 100 percent heading into the potential shootout. After missing the first two weeks of the season, the Lions’ top receiver has averaged 5/60/1 in his two games but will have a chance to top those numbers against the Jaguars’ league-worst pass defense that will likely be short-handed on Sunday.
PREDICTION: Kenny Golladay Over 65.5 receiving yards (-125)
Bridge Over Troubled Water
The Chicago Bears’ defense is a big reason why the team is 4-1. Only three other teams in the league are allowing fewer points than the Bears (20/gm) while Chicago’s 1.6 TDs allowed per game is the lowest mark in the NFL. Chicago has faced some of the most veteran QBs this year including Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers and Tom Brady. None of these quarterbacks managed to throw for more than one TD against this stingy Chicago defense.
Teddy Bridgewater and the Carolina Panthers head into Sunday’s tilt as the favorite against Chicago as the Carolina QB has tossed five passing TDs over the last three weeks. Playing against Atlanta, Arizona and the Chargers is not the same as the Bears, as teams are converting just 33 percent of their third downs against Chicago and scoring TDs in the red zone at 36 percent — the lowest mark in the league.
PREDICTION: Teddy Bridgewater Under 1.5 passing TDs (-115)
Make No Jones About It
The 4-0 Green Bay Packers come out of the bye and have a date with the Buccaneers and their No. 3 DVOA rush defense Sunday afternoon. Aaron Jones has been one the best all-purpose backs this year but the running back hasn’t topped 72 yards rushing in three of his four games and now will have to deal with a rush defense that is allowing just 41 yards a game over the last three weeks.
Receiver Davante Adams will suit up on Sunday for the first time since Week 2, which will give Aaron Rodgers more options that don’t include Jones. If Green Bay can’t get things going on the ground with Jones, it has no problem getting the RB involved in the passing game which would be an ideal scenario for us as we are banging the Under on Jones’ rushing total. No RB has topped 60 yards against the Bucs this year and that includes games against Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey.
PREDICTION: Aaron Jones Under 66.5 rushing yards (-115)
Learning Irv
The Atlanta Falcons have allowed seven TDs to opposing tight ends through five weeks, which is the highest mark in the league. They are allowing 67 yards to TEs per game as well and with the generosity in the red zone, the Falcons are the best fantasy matchup for any TE. This week the Minnesota Vikings host the winless Falcons and TE Irv Smith could be a sneaky play if you can find his market.
Smith has seen three red-zone targets in the last two weeks, which is second on the team. He is also coming into the Week 6 game having been targeted a season-high five times last week and ran pass routes on 73 percent of his passing snaps. His total snap count has been increasingly weekly and with RB Dalvin Cook likely sitting on Sunday, Smith could have a bigger role than usual in a great matchup spot.
PREDICTION: Irv Smith anytime TD (+400)
NFL Prop Picks for Thursday
Flacco Hole
The New York Jets are so bad that the Miami Dolphins are 9.5-point favorites in Week 6. Joe Flacco will be back under center again this week and leading an offense that is scoring 1.3 TDs a game over its last three games. Last week, the 0-5 Jets managed just 285 yards of total offense and scored one TD. It was their third time in four games scoring a single offensive TD.
The Jets’ Under 1.5 TDs has been a plus-money play all year and has cashed in three of the five weeks and is 1-0 in Joe Flacco starts. In week 6, the Under 1.5 TDs is a tasty +120 and with the recent release of Le’Veon Bell, the Jets will also be without last week’s leading rusher and will have to turn to 37-year-old Frank Gore.
Miami gave up just 4.4 yards per play last week to the 49ers, which was the fifth-lowest mark of the week. No team is worse than the 0-5 Jets this year and things could get even uglier before Sam Darnold returns.
PREDICTION: New York Jets Under 1.5 TDs (+120)
Protective Bears
The Carolina Panthers have done the unthinkable and ripped off three straight wins — all without RB Christian McCaffrey. The wins may be over-exaggerated as they came against Atlanta, Arizona and the Chargers, who are a combined 4-11 on the year.
This week, they face an equally-overrated Chicago team, but one thing that is for real is the Bears’ defense, which is allowing 20 points per game — the fourth-lowest total in the league. The Bears have dominated third downs this year, with their opponents only converting on 33 percent of third-down tries (2nd). This in turn has led to the Chicago defense giving up the fewest TDs per game in all of football.
Carolina and QB Teddy Bridgewater are exceeding their expectations and are the favorites heading into Week 6’s matchup, but having played two Bottom-10 defenses over the last two weeks, Chicago will be a bigger test. With McCaffrey in the lineup, Carolina put up just 17 points against Tampa’s Top-5 defense in Week 2. Only one team has put up more than 23 points against the Bears’ defense this year.
PREDICTION: Carolina team total Under 22.5 (-110)
Thielen Fan
The Atlanta Falcons will begin the post-Dan Quinn era this week as the former coach was canned after an 0-5 start. The Falcons defense is giving up the second-most passing yards per game (335) and let two different Panthers receivers top 90 yards receiving last week. This week, the 30th-ranked DVOA pass defense will try and stop Minnesota’s Adam Thielen, who has 17 grabs for 194 yards and three TDs over the last two weeks.
The Vikes will likely be without star RB Dalvin Cook, which could mean even more offensive looks against ATL. Thielen has been targeted eight times or more in four of his five games this year and already has amassed six TDs.
PREDICTION: Adam Thielen Over 81.5 receiving yards (-118) and anytime TD (+120)
Sin Higbee
What has happened to Rams’ TE Tyler Higbee? Over the last five games of 2019, the tight end averaged 104.4 receiving yards and topped 100 yards in four of those five matches. This year, however, he has caught more than three balls and topped 40 yards just once in five games.
The problem is the Rams are passing the ball at the third-lowest rate in the league (30.4 passes per game), and there are many mouths to feed including fellow TE Gerald Everett, who led the team in receiving last week with 90 yards on four catches.
The 49ers are allowing 39.8 yards to opposing TEs this year, which doesn’t leave a lot of room for success for Higbee. San Francisco allowed one big play last week to Miami TE Mike Gesicki but kept the Dolphins talented tight end to four catches and 21 yards without the big play. Higbee seems to be a forgotten player in the Rams’ low-profile passing game as he has just 32 yards on five catches over the last two weeks.
PREDICTION: Tyler Higbee Under 33.5 receiving yards (-114)
Year to date record: 58-31 (65 percent)
NFL Week 6 prop betting card
- Deshaun Watson Over 0.5 interceptions (-125)
- Travis Kelce Under 0.5 TD receptions (-112)
- Daniel Jones Under 1.5 passing TDs (-128)
- Chase Claypool Over 58.5 receiving yards (-113)
- -
- Cleveland Browns team total Under 23.5 (-120)
- Kirk Cousins Under 287.5 passing yards (-115)
- Baltimore/Philadelphia Over 5.5 total sacks
- New England Patriots team total Under 27.5 (-118)
- -
- Kenny Golladay Over 65.5 receiving yards (-125)
- Teddy Bridgewater Under 1.5 passing TDs (-115)
- Aaron Jones Under 66.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Irv Smith anytime TD (+400)
- -
- New York Jets Under 1.5 TDs (+120)
- Carolina team total Under 22.5 (-110)
- Adam Thielen Over 81.5 receiving yards (-118) and anytime TD (+120)
- Tyler Higbee Under 33.5 receiving yards (-114)
Where can I find NFL player props?
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