The roulette wheel that is NFL Week 17 betting is one of the wildest slots on the schedule. Playoff pushes and offseason anxiousness mix the motivations in the final week, creating some strange NFL odds and results.
Regardless of teams’ intent, the sharpest betting strategy is always getting the best number for your bet. And with that in mind, we roll out our final NFL betting tips of the regular season with our point spreads and totals to bet now and the lines you should bet later.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6): Bet Now
Talk about a mismatch in motivation. Tampa Bay needs to win this game to lock in the No. 5 seed in the NFC and is coming off a blowout win over Detroit this past Saturday, giving the Bucs an extra day of rest before hosting the Falcons.
Atlanta, on the other hand, suffered another soul-crushing loss, this time to Kansas City on Sunday. The Falcons straight up “Falcon’d it”, dropping a game-clinching interception in the end zone then allowing Patrick Mahomes to score the go-ahead touchdown with just under two minutes remaining in the game. And when Atlanta had a shot to at least force overtime, kicker Younghoe Koo missed a 39-yard field goal with 14 seconds left to lose 17-14.
The Buccaneers took a 31-27 win at Atlanta in Week 15 and while the Falcons have fought hard in recent weeks and plenty of players and staff are auditioning for a job in 2021, this spread is only going up. Grab Tampa Bay at -6 while you can.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+2.5): Bet Later
After the way things trickled down in Week 16, the NFC East is very interesting heading into the final slot of schedule. The Cowboys crushed Philadelphia this past Sunday and need to win at New York while getting an “L” from Washington (vs. the Eagles) to steal the division and the NFC booby prize (a home playoff date).
This spread opened Dallas -1.5 and quickly jumped a full point to -2.5, but let’s not forget the G-Men also have a path to the postseason with a victory and a Football Team folly in Week 17. New York has dropped three straight outings while Dallas has won three in a row, however, the revenge of Jason Garrett could be complete in East Rutherford this Sunday.
The contrasting current form and added media hype around the Cowboys’ Week 16 win is inching this spread near a field goal. Dallas hasn’t played well in outdoor venues this season, going just 1-4 SU and ATS (pay attention to the Week 17 forecast), so if you’re on New York, you may want to wait and see if you can get +3 or more.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (Over 44.5): Bet Now
The Ravens need to win this AFC North finale to get back in the tournament and given the sizable spread (-11.5), they should be able to manage that. But big spreads often mean big scoring and that could be why we’re seeing this Over/Under start to tick up, climbing from 44 to 44.5 points Sunday night.
Baltimore has found its offensive groove. After mustering just 20.6 points per game during a tumultuous stretch from Week 8 to Week 12, the Ravens have erupted for 37 points per contest in their last four outings. Granted, the opposing defenses were far from elite, but the Bengals' stop unit is no prize pig (allowing an average of almost 26 points).
The Cincinnati offense has shown a little fight the past two weeks. The Bengals have posted scores of 27 and 37 points, with backups QB Brandon Allen putting up respectable numbers in relief of the injured Joe Burrow during his four starts. These division foes played Under the total back in October but have paid out for the Over in four of their last six meetings. Take the Over before this total climbs to 45 points.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (Over 49): Bet Later
If you thought the tanking Jaguars were bad, wait until you get a load of the “Zero F#cks” Jags in Week 17. With Trevor Lawrence jerseys ready to roll off the presses in Jacksonville, there's nothing to play for in Indianapolis this Sunday.
The Colts, in stark contrast, have their postseason lives on the line. Not only does Indianapolis have to win in Week 17 but it will need an assist from other AFC teams in the mix to crack the bracket. Bookies are making Indy lay two touchdowns, which should mean plenty of points. But the Jaguars have puttered to just 41 total points the past three games.
I don’t see this Over/Under cracking 50, even with some 49.5-point totals out there. There’s no doubt the lion’s share of the scoring will be on the Colts, who average 27.4 points per home game. That said, Jacksonville’s stop unit is rolling out the red carpet, giving up 112 combined points its past three appearances and allowing an NFL-worst 32.3 points per road game this season. If you’re on this Over, set an alarm to bet it later in the week.
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