NFL betting in the early workings of the schedule is always a challenge, and more so with a COVID-cancelled 2020 preseason leaving us with little to base those bets on.
Week 2 specifically is a puzzle on par with the Rubik’s Cube and more of a mental test, keeping reactions to a single result in check while trying to determine what was real and what wasn’t.
Week 1 produced a 1-2 ATS mark for our featured NFL betting picks, which if you’re new the column is officially titled, NFL Underdogs. And therein lies the game: I can only pick NFL underdogs each and every week.
Underdogs can be tricky business in the second week of the season, especially when they’re coming off an outright upset as 5.5-point pups and playing against a profitable Week 2 betting trend.
Washington Football Team (+7) vs Arizona Cardinals pick
Washington rallied from 17-0 down to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1, scoring 27 straight points and delivering a “Stone Cold” Stunner to plenty of bettors, blowing up parlays and teasers while also sending survivor pool players to their doom.
The Football Team got a huge effort from its defense in the final three quarters of that matchup, turning up the intensity and sacking Eagles QB Carson Wentz a total of eight times. Granted, Philadelphia has injury issues on its offensive line, but Washington’s defensive front looked downright dangerous and that pass pressure is nothing new.
The Football Team finished 2019 with 17 sacks in its final five games (46 total sacks for the season) and are even better up front this year, adding No. 2 overall pick Chase Young and a new 4-3 system under head coach Ron Rivera.
That pressure will keep Cardinals second-year QB Kyler Murray from getting comfortable this Sunday. Murray is going to have to rely on quick throws as well as picking up yards with his legs, which manifests itself in shorter gains. Keeping Arizona in front of them is key for the Football Team.
I did highlight a specific Week 2 betting trend, pertaining to teams coming off big upset wins in Week 1 – which the Cardinals are after beating the San Francisco 49ers as 6.5-point underdogs. But I think the touchdown spread is too much too soon for Arizona.
PREDICTION: Washington +7 (-110)
Atlanta Falcons (+4.5) vs Dallas Cowboys pick
I featured this spread in my “Bet Now/Bet Later” article on Monday morning, pleading with Falcons followers to buy up as many points as they could with Atlanta opening +7 and moving to +6.5 as of that writing.
Here we are on Thursday, and those key numbers are long gone with bookies dealing a weirdo +4.5 line for Atlanta. While it’s not a touchdown, I still like the Dirty Birds getting more than a field goal in Big D, with the Cowboys trying to figure out new systems under new coaches while also duct-taping themselves together with big injuries on both sides of the ball.
The glaring mismatch is the Falcons’ passing attack against the Cowboys’ crap-tacular secondary. Matt Ryan had three receivers go over the century mark against Seattle in Week 1 and there’s absolutely no answer for Julio Jones on Dallas' defense.
Another edge for Atlanta is the banged-up pass protection for Dallas. This once-mighty offensive line is down two starters and still figuring out life after Travis Frederick, with the former All-Pro center retiring this offseason.
The Cowboys gave up three sacks to the L.A. Rams last Sunday and Dak Prescott was constantly under fire from Aaron Donald & Co., which held back this potent passing game. The Falcons collected three sacks and 10 hits on Russell Wilson in their Week 1 loss to the Seahawks, getting a great game from their defensive front.
PREDICTION: Atlanta +4.5 (-110)
New England Patriots (+4) vs Seattle Seahawks pick
Is backing the Patriots after one win under Cam Newton an overreaction? Eh, maybe. Is giving the New England coaching staff the benefit of the doubt as road underdogs a smart play?
Yes. Yes it is.
The Seahawks are giving four at home, despite an empty CenturyLink Field and some additional love from the oddsmakers after their win at Atlanta in Week 1. The lookahead line for this Sunday Night Football showdown opened at Seattle -3.5 back in May, when it was uncertain if fans would be in attendance come the fall.
This Seahawks defense is no longer one of the premier stop units in the NFL – as evidenced by the pile of yards allowed to Atlanta in Week 1 – and without Russell Wilson making plays with his legs, this rushing attack was toothless in the season opener. It’s all on Wilson, and I have to think Bill Belichick has had a scheme in his hoodie pocket for this game since the schedule came out.
On offense, the Patriots rushing attack can have this game running in sand, controlling tempo and clock while keeping Russ off the field. New England has a patient playbook under Josh McDaniels but knowing New England’s history and all the mysteries with Newton in the mix, the Seahawks have no clue what they’re getting on Sunday night.
PREDICTION: New England +4 (-110)
Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 1-2 ATS
NFL Week 2 betting card
- Washington +7 (-110)
- Atlanta +4.5 (-110)
- New England +4 (-110)
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