Normally, by Week 6 of the NFL schedule, we have a pretty good idea who teams really are. But in 2020, we’re still very much playing a game of Guess Who?
With plenty of coaching swaps, no preseason games and COVID-19 shuffling the calendar, books and bettors are behind schedule. That’s not a bad thing for NFL betting purposes, especially when you’re responsible for a column titled NFL Underdogs.
The difference between an overvalued favorite and an underrated underdog is still very subtle, and we try to spot exactly that with our NFL Week 6 picks and predictions.
Cincinnati Bengals (+8) vs Indianapolis Colts pick
Hey, whaddya know? We have an overvalued favorite and an underrated underdog in the same game.
I faded the Colts against Cleveland last week, not buying into their NFL-best defense which was built on the sugary backs of a cupcake schedule. Indianapolis was gashed for big yards and 32 points from the Browns and enter Week 6 with notable injuries to the stop unit, with LB Darius Leonard, DE Justin Houston, safety Julian Blackmon and DT Denico Autry all question marks for Sunday.
The Indy offense continues to sputter with Philip Rivers under center and ranks 25th in offensive DVOA at Football Outsiders. The Colts can't convert on third downs and suck inside the red zone, scoring touchdowns on just 40 percent of their trips inside the 20-yard line. That's not a good look when you're giving as many points as Indianapolis is in Week 6.
The Bengals are in a “buy low” spot coming off a 27-3 thrashing at the hands of the rival Ravens. What’s lost in that one-sided decision is that Cincinnati did a fine job on defense, limiting Baltimore to 20 points on offense despite giving away the football three times.
Joe Burrow has seen his numbers tempered due to a lack of protection, getting sacked 22 times so far this season – seven coming against the Ravens last Sunday. However, the Colts don’t pose as big a threat with only four sacks in their last three outings. The Bengals are also hoping to have both A.J. Green and John Ross on the field for the first time since Week 1.
PREDICTION: Cincinnati +8 (-110)
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) pick
Nothing piles on the points like chewing back a 40-burger from the Dolphins.
The lookahead line for this NFC West war was San Francisco -3, but after the Niners’ disaster of a day and the benching of Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 5, books released the revamped spread at 49ers +3.5 Sunday night.
This is San Francisco’s third straight home game and, after losing the first two outings of this stand, the pressure is mounting to stay in the division race. Garoppolo’s piss-poor performance stemmed from a bum ankle and Kyle Shanahan knew when to tap out, immediately looking ahead to Los Angeles.
A healthier Jimmy G will play better against L.A. – he couldn’t get any worse – and he’ll have the Niners’ ground attack backing him up. San Francisco got Raheem Mostert back last week and combined with Jerick McKinnon, this duo can do some damage against a Rams rushing defense that is much worse than its overall season stats would indicate.
Love the half-point hook on the home side, so get it while you can because it’s drying up.
PREDICTION: San Francisco +3.5 (-118)
Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) pick
One thing that sucks about writing this column on Thursday is that you’re missing the best of the line far too often.
Dallas opened as a field goal underdog at home for Monday Night Football, a week removed from losing QB Dak Prescott to a gruesome ankle injury, and has slowly ticked down throughout the week. It eventually dropped to +1.5 upon news that Arizona’s top pass rusher Chandler Jones would miss the rest of the season.
Prescott’s worth to this team is huge but no offense in the NFL is better equipped to absorb a blow like that than the Cowboys. Backup Andy Dalton is one of the better No. 2 options in the league and he’s surrounded by a bevy of skill players that can help lift his game, including RB Ezekiel Elliott.
Zeke has become a threat on the ground and through the air, with 364 rushing yards, 173 receiving yards, and six combined touchdowns in 2020. He broke out of a mini funk on the ground against the Giants with two rushing scores and 91 yards on 19 carries.
Arizona has troubles containing those dual-threat backs, giving up three passing TDs and 12.09 yards per reception to RBs this season. The Cardinals just allowed 123 yards rushing to the Jets, were rolled for 168 yards on the ground by the Panthers two weeks ago. They’ve also watched opponents control the clock to the tune of 32:34 the past three games.
Without Dak connecting for those deep strikes, Dallas will lean on the run and shorten the playbook, limiting the amount of time its dreadful defense is exposed. The Cowboys seemed lost through the first five games but I expect this team to rally around its fallen captain and come out strong in primetime.
PREDICTION: Dallas +1.5 (-110)
Last week: 3-0 ATS
Season: 8-7 ATS
NFL Week 6 Betting Card
- Cincinnati +8 (-110)
- San Francisco +3.5 (-118)
- Dallas +1.5 (-110)
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