Anyone who has ever placed a bet – big or small – knows that winning a wager can take some skill, but it also often takes a lot of luck.
Take my NFL betting picks from last Sunday: Pittsburgh +1 cashes on a missed Titans field goal and Detroit +1.5 comes in on another epic Falcons flop. My other underdog bet on Dallas +1 burned up before the first quarter was over and involved no skill nor luck.
I’m riding a wave of momentum into my NFL Week 8 picks and predictions with a 9-3 ATS mark the past four weeks.
I would like to think that record reflects some skill accrued during my more than 15 years writing and analyzing betting for Covers.com and the 20-plus years I’ve spent wagering on sporting events.
However, I’d be foolish to deny that the gambling gods (all praise be to Gamblor) have smiled on my beloved NFL underdogs over the past month. After opening the 2020 NFL season with a 23-25 ATS record in the first three weeks of action, underdogs have turned out a 32-23-1 ATS mark since Week 4 – covering at a 58 percent clip.
I know these streaks come and go in terms of ATS results and in the end, faves and dogs pretty much balance out over the course of 17 weeks. So, if my luck has run out here in Week 8, let’s hope I’ve got enough skill to keep the covers coming with my NFL Underdogs picks.
San Francisco 49ers (+3) vs Seattle Seahawks pick
Is there a better example of luck vs. skill than the Seattle Seahawks?
Russell Wilson continues to connect on these huge heaves downfield, and if he didn’t consistently do it year after year, you would dub those long bombs lucky. According to Team Rankings, Seattle sits sixth in its “luck rating” metric this season and finished 2019 as the second-luckiest team overall.
However, luck could be running out for Seattle, which was finally dealt its first defeat of the year in Week 7 (5-1 SU) despite four of its six games being decided by a touchdown or less, and the Seahawks allowing almost 29 points against per contest and sitting 28th in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders.
In contrast, the 49ers are perhaps the unluckiest team in the NFL through the first half of the schedule, simply based on the rash of big-name injuries on both sides of the ball. It seems every time San Francisco gets bodies back, it loses two more. Despite being snake bitten, Kyle Shanahan’s system keeps chugging along, no matter who's suiting up.
The Niners have crushed their last two opponents – two good teams in L.A. and New England – by a combined score of 57-22. The musical chairs rushing attack has been the backbone of those victories, rumbling for 319 yards on 74 carries and helping San Fran boast TOP counts of 37:55 and 38:23. On the year, the 49ers rank third in average time of possession and chew up 3:09 per offensive drive.
Let’s see how lucky Wilson can be when he doesn’t get to touch the football.
PREDICTION: San Francisco +3 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts vs Detroit Lions (+3) pick
I'm going back to the well with the Lions, who should have covered the +1.5 in a 17-16 loss to Atlanta but made the most of a brain-fart TD from Todd Gurley and ended up winning outright in one of the wildest sweats I’ve ever been through.
Matt Stafford is finding another gear and has the horses around him to hit maximum speed, with a talented group of receivers and a solid rushing attack that’s keeping defenses honest. Rookie RB D’Andre Swift is about to explode and faces an Indy defense that gave up three rushing scores to the Bengals in Week 6.
The Colts are coming off a bye, and while they still rank among the top defenses in the NFL, this stop unit has had its pants pulled down against some actual offensive opposition the past two games, allowing 32 and 27 points to the Ohio teams (Cleveland and Cincinnati). That’s what happens when you fatten your stats with foes like the Jets, Bears, and Vikings.
Detroit’s defense is making leaps and bounds, allowing just over 20 points per game in the team’s last three wins. The Lions do struggle against play-action heavy playbooks, but the Colts have the 28th-ranked ground game and Philip Rivers has attempted only 36 play-action pass attempts for 204 total yards this season – among the lowest in the league for a full-time starting QB.
PREDICTION: Detroit +3 (-110)
Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) pick
Joe Burrow is coming off his biggest day as a pro in a loss to Cleveland last week and has a good shot to build on that performance against the Titans' terrible defense. Burrow threw for 406 yards against the Browns, hitting six different targets for 50 or more yards.
Tennessee hasn’t been able to get consistent pressure on passers this season and could be missing key cogs of its secondary Sunday. The Titans have played up and down to opponents’ levels to start the season, with three wins coming by an average of two points and another victory picked up in overtime. That's led to a 2-4 record against the spread.
Tennessee is coming off a very physical matchup with the Steelers in Week 7 and runs the risk of a letdown spot in what will be its first road game in more than a month. The Titans are just 6-10 ATS as road chalk since 2015 and take on a Bengals squad among the best bets in football (5-2 ATS).
PREDICTION: Cincinnati +5.5 (-110)
Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 12-9 ATS
NFL Week 8 Betting Card
- San Francisco +3 (-110)
- Detroit +3 (-110)
- Cincinnati +5.5 (-110)
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