Holy hell it’s been a stressful week.
Between the weight of the pandemic, homeschooling children, up-and-down and all-around election results (or lack thereof), and my wife ramping up the Christmas shopping, stress levels are hitting Adam Gase highs.
Ahhh, nothing like some soothing NFL betting to settle those nerves, right? Wrong.
Most weeks, my NFL picks and predictions are the biggest source of stress in my life (I’m pretty chill). But I’m embracing the sweaty chaos that is Week 9 and welcoming some wild and whacky finishes to my NFL Underdogs plays.
After this week, I’m ready for anything.
Denver Broncos (+4) vs Atlanta Falcons pick
The Broncos are 3-4 SU on the year (5-2 ATS) but there’s no shame in those four losses. Denver has dropped games to Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh and Tennessee - all likely playoff-bound teams with a collective win/loss count of 25-5.
Denver is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four contests and is playing its best football of the season, behind a defense injected with Red Bull the past few games and a rushing attack averaging almost five yards per carry in the past three contests.
The Broncos are hitting hard on both sides of the ball and are getting more than a field goal in Atlanta - a line that moved from 3.5 to 4 based on the team’s recent outbreak of COVID-19 (guys like OL Graham Glasgow and DE Shelby Harris could still play Sunday).
The Falcons could also be playing their best football of 2020, coming off a win over divisional rival Carolina last Thursday night and more importantly, not coughing up a fourth-quarter lead. Real progress for the Dirty Birds. However, the Broncos are a tough matchup for Atlanta.
The Falcons’ run stop stats are deceiving, allowing an average of only 99.3 rushing yards per game. That’s more a manifestation of their terrible pass defense (311.4 passing yards per game) with teams opting to run the ball just 36.9 percent of the time against Atlanta. Why eat hamburger when you can eat steak, right?
Another problem for Atlanta is its historically dreadful red-zone offense, which is scoring touchdowns on only 53 percent (27th) of its trips inside opponents’ 20-yard lines. That includes a 2-for-6 red-zone effort versus Carolina last week. Denver’s defense has tightened its belt when backed up against its own end zone, allowing touchdowns on just 48 percent of defensive red-zone series this year (third lowest in the NFL).
PREDICTION: Denver +4 (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders (+1) vs Los Angeles Chargers pick
Last week, I had the Raiders down as one of my underdog picks but upon inspection of the weather in Cleveland for Week 8 (wind, rain, snow), I scratched the Silver and Black thinking their deep ball-dependent offense would struggle in the Ohio elements.
Shame on me. Las Vegas picked up a character win last Sunday, weathering the cold November rain like a widowed Axl Rose but also showing that it can pick up victories by running the football and stopping the run. The Raiders held Cleveland’s RBs to 72 combined rushing yards and smashed its way to more than 200 gains on the ground in an ugly 16-6 win.
Now, Vegas comes to the clean indoor track in SoFi Stadium to face the rival Bolts, who buckled against the Broncos in Week 8. The Chargers continue to find themselves in shootouts, regardless of how good the opposing offense is, giving up big numbers on defense.
That stop unit is even weaker in Week 9 with pass rush god Joey Bosa likely out due to a concussion. That takes some pressure off Raiders QB Derek Carr, who has been quietly slinging it, ranking among the league’s elite arms in passer rating.
Despite having a killer new home stadium as well, the Raiders have thrived away from Sin City this season, going 3-1 SU and ATS as visitors. The Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders have also excelled in road games against the San Diego/L.A. Chargers, covering in eight of their last 11 road games against the Bolts.
PREDICTION: Las Vegas +1 (-110)
New Orleans Saints (+4) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers pick
A mantra of this column over the years has been simply picking the best team getting the points that week. I will say it’s much easier to make an argument for betting on a good underdog than the usual parade of homely pooches we normally have to pick from.
The Saints are that team in Week 9. New Orleans has won four in a row but covered only once in that span, including a tough situational game in Chicago last week. However, this Sunday night NOLA is catching 4-points from Tampa Bay—a role the Saints have been absolute gold in.
New Orleans is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games as an underdog and finds itself in a big divisional dance in less-than-ideal conditions in Tampa, with the forecast calling for possible thunderstorms and winds for Raymond James Stadium on Sunday.
Those conditions could shorten both offenses, which leans to New Orleans and dynamic RB Alvin Kamara (ranked 16th in rushing and 15th in receiving), who is complemented by a healthy receiving corps for the first time since September.
I’m not taking much – if anything – from New Orleans’ Week 1 win over the Buccaneers, since that was effectively a preseason game with no exhibition schedule and limited practice reps due to the stupid coronavirus. But the Saints have covered in four straight meetings with Tampa Bay and I like them getting more than a field goal Sunday night.
PREDICTION: New Orleans +4 (-110)
Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 13-11 ATS
NFL Week 9 Betting Card
- Denver +4 (-110)
- Las Vegas +1 (-110)
- New Orleans +4 (-110)
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