Touchdown dances aren’t just reserved for the guys getting across the goal line.
Touchdown props allow NFL bettors to celebrate alongside their favorite players, which makes anytime touchdown and first touchdown odds among the most popular NFL player props bets every week.
If you think you know which players will strike pay dirt, you can bet on them to score a TD at any point in the game. And if you’re really locked in on who will get past the goal line first, you can pump up your payouts by betting the “first touchdown scorer” markets when you make your NFL picks.
Anytime touchdown prediction
Michael Pittman Jr.: Anytime TD (+220 at bet365)
The Indianapolis Colts managed two field goals last week vs. the Lions and Anthony Richardson looked bad again, but this week, Michael Pittman Jr. has the chance to be the focal part of the offense in a good matchup on the road vs. the New England Patriots.
Even with Richardson having arguably the worst QB performance of Week 12, Pittman caught six of his team-high seven targets for 96 yards, which were nearly half of the team’s total passing yards. Now, he’ll face a much easier New England defense that ranks 30th in EPA/dropback.
The weather doesn’t look too bad and Pittman is paying a very solid +220 for a TD for the No.1 offensive piece.
-Josh Inglis
Jauan Jennings: Anytime TD (+375 at bet365)
Jauan Jennings has just one touchdown in his last three games, but the amount of run he's gotten in that span suggests he's the best bet on the San Francisco 49ers side to score six points on Sunday.
Jennings has been targeted 29 times in his last three games, hauling in 22 of those passes 224 yards with only one score. George Kittle has three touchdowns in the same span, but he'll be hard-pressed to stump a Buffalo Bills defense that's allowed only three touchdowns to tight ends all year.
-Robert Criscola
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Anytime TD (+205 at Caesars)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has played nine games with DK Metcalf this year and has just one fewer target. The second-year Seattle Seahawks receiver might be the most important part of this division-leading offense and his role could be even bigger in Week 13 vs. the New York Jets, who rank 29th in EPA vs. the pass since Week 9.
Metcalf was a DNP at practice on Wednesday with a shoulder injury, which is a new ailment for the receiver who missed two games with a knee injury earlier in the season. In the games he sat, JSN put up 249 receiving yards on 13 catches and two scores. To boost this potential box-score-filling game, Tyler Lockett is also dealing with an injury (knee) and was DNP on Wednesday, as well.
-Josh Inglis
Keenan Allen: Anytime TD (+270 at FanDuel)
Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen caught one of his two red-zone targets for a touchdown last week against the Minnesota Vikings, and he received another 13 looks in the passing attack to finish with his best game of the year.
My NFL picks are looking Allen’s way in this tough matchup with the Detroit Lions because of his crisp route running and recent connection with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. Additionally, I’m expecting Allen to have easier one-on-one matchups against Detroit cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Amik Robertson, while Carlton Davis primarily lines up opposite Bears wide-out DJ Moore.
-Neil Parker
First touchdown prediction
Nico Collins: First TD (+750 at DraftKings)
Given the quality of the Houston Texans roster and the fact they have something to play for, they should be scoring first, and Nico Collins should be the man at the center of the action. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense is pretty bad across the board, but they are absolutely terrible against the pass, ranking dead last in yardage allowed, as well as giving up 13 touchdowns to wide receivers.
Collins has scored four times this season but has only played seven times and has been getting elite volume in terms of targets. Since returning from injury, he’s seen his catches increase from four to five, as his targets have increased from seven to nine.
-Sam Farley aaa
A.J. Brown: First TD (+1,000 at DraftKings)
Philly and Baltimore are both good against the run, with the Ravens ranked second and the Eagles ranked seventh in that category. However, the Eagles are far better against the pass than the Ravens, who have given up the second most yards through the air.
With that in mind, I'm picking an Eagles pass catcher to score first and that has to be A.J. Brown. With the Eagles becoming the Saquon Barkley Show, it feels like Brown has largely been forgotten, but he’s still one of the league’s best. He also comes into this on the back of a touchdown against the Rams, ending a four game streak without scoring.
-Sam Farley
Multi touchdown prediction
Christian McCaffrey: 2+ TDs (+500 at DraftKings)
Although Christian McCaffrey has yet to break out since his return from injury, I expect a bounce-back outing in primetime against the Buffalo Bills. With snowy conditions forecasted at Highmark Stadium, Kyle Shanahan's offensive game plan should lean heavily on CMC.
Let's not forget that the reigning Offensive Player of the Year scored a league-leading 21 touchdowns a season ago, including five games with 2+ TDs. It's only a matter of time before his paydirt prowess pays off.
-Trevor Knapp
What is a first touchdown scorer bet?
A first touchdown scorer bet involves wagering on which player will score the first touchdown in a specific NFL game. This type of bet can be placed on any player who is eligible to score, and typically focuses on running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks.
If the player you choose scores the first touchdown, you win the bet; if not, you lose. The odds for these bets can vary based on the player’s likelihood to score first, which is influenced by factors like their position, recent performance, and the team's offensive strategy and efficiency.
What is an anytime touchdown scorer bet?
An anytime touchdown bet involves wagering on whether a specific player will score a touchdown at any point during the game, not just the first TD.
For example, if you bet on Ravens running back Derrick Henry to score an anytime touchdown and he finds the end zone at any time during the game, you win the bet. This type of bet is popular because it allows for more scoring opportunities, and you can often choose players based on advantageous matchups. The odds can vary based on the player’s scoring potential and the strength of the team’s offensive scheme.
How are touchdown prop odds determined in NFL betting?
Here are some of the key factors oddsmakers consider when setting touchdown prop odds:
- Player performance: Historical data on a player's scoring ability, including past touchdowns, carries, and target share, is crucial.
- Matchup analysis: The opposing defense's strengths and weaknesses are evaluated, including how well they defend against specific positions.
- Injury reports: Injuries to key players can impact a player's likelihood of scoring. Check out our NFL Injuries page to stay up to date before making your wager.
- Game script: Oddsmakers consider potential game scenarios, such as whether a team is expected to be ahead or behind and how that may impact their strategy.
- Public sentiment: Betting patterns and public perception can also sway odds. If a player is very popular or a big favorite, sportsbooks may adjust their odds to mitigate risk. You can check out our Covers NFL picks consensus to see how the public is leaning.
- Statistical models: Sportsbook use advanced analytics and data-driven models to help refine their lines.
NFL TD Prop Betting FAQ
Yes, both running touchdowns and receiving touchdowns count for both the first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown bets. So, if a running back scores a touchdown by running the ball or a wide receiver scores by catching a pass, it will count for your bet in either category. As long as the player you bet on is the one who scores, you win!
Yes, an interception return for a touchdown counts as a touchdown in anytime touchdown betting props. If you bet on a defensive player to score an anytime touchdown and they return an interception for a touchdown, your bet would win. This also applies to fumble recoveries returned for touchdowns. However, it's important to check the specific rules of the sportsbook, as they can vary.
On an average Sunday of NFL football, six to seven touchdowns are typically scored per game. Since there are usually 12 to 16 games played, that can add up to 70 to 100 total touchdowns across the league.
Yes, an NFL center can score a touchdown, though it's quite rare. Centers primarily focus on snapping the ball and blocking, but they can score through a fumble recovery, a passing play if they are deemed eligible before the play, and a fake play.
Yes, you can parlay touchdown props in NFL betting. A parlay involves combining multiple bets into one wager, and if all selections win, the payout can be much higher than placing each bet individually. For instance, you can parlay bets on multiple players to score touchdowns in the same game, but keep in mind that all bets in the parlay must win for you to receive a payout.
