Betting trends are the junk food of handicapping: empty calories that taste good going down but can leave us sick to our stomachs a few hours later.
To be honest, I believe most NFL trends are fluff — even some of the ones featured below. Yet, they can help steer bettors in the right direction in the NFL odds.
A good NFL betting trend has substance that carries over from week to week and season to season, with a narrative that can clearly prove its value. Those “trends with teeth” can be hard to come by.
I previewed all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2024 season and included a notable betting trend for each squad.
Here’s one betting trend to know for every NFL team in 2024 with Week 1 on the horizon.
NFL betting trends for all 32 teams
Arizona Cardinals: Divisional home games
One year under Jonathan Gannon doesn’t present much in the way of actionable info, but the Arizona Cardinals’ coach did continue to suck against NFC West opponents in 2023. Arizona finished 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS.
Protecting home turf in those divisional matchups has been a problem for this team in recent seasons, boasting a 2-12 SU record and 4-10 ATS count in divisional home games since 2019. That includes last season’s 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS clips when welcoming NFC West foes into State Farm Stadium.
Arizona Cardinals’ divisional home games
- Week 2 vs. L.A. Rams (+2.5, 48.5)
- Week 14 vs. Seattle (-1, 46)
- Week 18 vs. San Francisco (+4, 43)
Atlanta Falcons: Home Unders
The franchise’s top-to-bottom sweep makes connecting the dots between this year’s Atlanta Falcons and Arthur Smith’s forgettable tenure difficult. One trend that bettors can keep an eye on — with a defense-first head coach at the wheel — is Unders in Atlanta’s home games.
From 2021 to 2023, the Falcons fell below the closing total to the tune of a 9-15 Over/Under count (62.5% Unders), including a 3-5 O/U tally at home in 2023. And when those home games come against non-divisional opponents, that O/U mark slides to 4-11 O/U.
Atlanta Falcons’ non-divisional home games
- Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh (43)
- Week 3 vs. Kansas City (49)
- Week 7 vs. Seattle (48)
- Week 9 vs. Dallas (48)
- Week 13 vs. L.A. Chargers (47.5)
- Week 16 vs. N.Y. Giants (44.5)
Baltimore Ravens: Big favorites
As one of the best two-way teams in the NFL in recent seasons, Baltimore is no stranger to piles of chalk.
The Baltimore Ravens have handed over six or more points 16 times over the past three years and while they’re 12-4 SU in those games, they’ve gone just 4-12 ATS as lofty faves. That includes a 2-4 ATS count as a favorite of -6 or higher in 2023.
This year’s look-ahead lines have Baltimore giving six or more points in five games in 2024.
Baltimore Ravens’ biggest spreads
- Week 2 vs. Las Vegas (-7.5)
- Week 6 vs. Washington (-8.5)
- Week 9 vs. Denver (-10.5)
- Week 15 @ N.Y. Giants (-6.5)
- Week 16 vs. Pittsburgh (-6)
Buffalo Bills: First three weeks
I’ve harped on and on about the Buffalo Bills’ challenging start to the season, but the first three weeks are pretty soft compared to the Week 4 to Week 6 slog. Buffalo opens at home to Arizona, visits Miami on Thursday Night Football, and hosts Jacksonville — all winnable games.
Head coach Doug McDermott is great at getting his guys going early on, boasting a career 15-6 SU record and 13-7-1 ATS count in the opening three weeks of action since 2017. That includes a 2-1 SU and ATS mark in the first three games last year, with the loss being the weird Week 1 game with the Jets in which Rodgers was injured.
Buffalo Bills’ first three games
- Week 1 vs. Arizona (-6.5)
- Week 2 @ Miami (+1)
- Week 3 vs. Jacksonville (-5)
Carolina Panthers: Divisional home Unders
Unders have been a solid play with the Carolina Panthers in recent years, especially when it comes to divisional games. Put those NFC South showdowns in Charlotte, and you’re looking at an 89% Under winner the previous three seasons.
Carolina is 1-8 Over/Under in divisional home games since 2021, including a 0-3 O/U finish in those spots in 2023.
Carolina Panthers’ divisional home games
- Week 6 vs. Atlanta (44)
- Week 9 vs. New Orleans (40.5)
- Week 13 vs. Tampa Bay (43)
Chicago Bears: One-score games
When the going gets tough, head coach Matt Eberflus gets got. In his two seasons with the Chicago Bears, Eberflus is just 3-13 SU in one-score games (eight points or less) with a 6-7-3 record against the spread in those nail-biters.
The optimistic odds call for close ones in all of the Bears’ outings in 2024, with no spread bigger than 5.5 points. In the tightest of games — spreads between -3 and +3 — Chicago is a measly 6-10 SU and 4-9-3 ATS under Eberflus. It currently has 10 look-ahead spreads in that range in 2024.
Cincinnati Bengals: Big favorites
The Cincinnati Bengals have been one of the best bets in the NFL in recent seasons, owning a 38-25-3 count overall since Burrow showed up in Cincy (60%).
That windfall includes meeting expectations as a point spread favorite, with a 19-12-2 ATS clip when giving points since 2020 (61%). But there is a breaking point for the Bengals’ spreads.
Tab Cincinnati as a favorite of a touchdown or more and the team is 5-3 SU but 3-5 ATS. The 2024 look-ahead lines have the Bengals laying -7 or higher in four games this season (and another at -6.5).
Cincinnati Bengals’ biggest spreads
- Week 1 vs. New England (-9)
- Week 3 vs. Washington (-7.5)
- Week 9 vs. Las Vegas (-7)
- Week 17 vs. Denver (-8)
Cleveland Browns: Divisional road games
The AFC North is relentless, regardless of how teams are expected to do in a given season. Cleveland knows this very well, especially when visiting those divisional rivals.
The Cleveland Browns have won only five divisional road games since 2016 (5-19 SU) in the regular season, burning bettors with a 7-16-1 ATS record in those outings. Granted, Cleveland really sucked for a good chunk of those clashes. But even in recent years, the Browns are 3-9 SU and ATS when visiting AFC North opponents under Kevin Stefanski (since 2020).
All three AFC North trips happen in the final five games of 2024.
Cleveland Browns’ divisional road games
- Week 14 @ Pittsburgh (+1)
- Week 16 @ Cincinnati (+3.5)
- Week 18 @ Baltimore (+4.5)
Dallas Cowboys: Divisional home games
The Dallas Cowboys’ success in AT&T Stadium (68% in the last three regular seasons) is noteworthy. Big D dials up the intensity even higher for divisional home games, having not lost to an NFC East foe inside Jerry’s World since 2020.
Dallas is a perfect 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in divisional home games the past three years, including a 3-0 SU and ATS jewel in 2023. In fact, going back to 2017, “America’s Team” has been the American Dream in those rivalries on home turf, boasting a 19-2 SU record and 17-4 ATS windfall.
Dallas Cowboys’ divisional home games
- Week 10 vs. Philadelphia (-2)
- Week 13 vs. N.Y. Giants (-8)
- Week 18: vs. Washington (-5.5)
Denver Broncos: Home underdog
The energy-sapping altitude gives the Denver Broncos a unique home-field advantage, which is why we rarely see this team getting points at Mile High.
Denver has been a home dog only six times total over the past three seasons, going 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS in those rare spots. The Broncos have long been a tough out on top of the mountain, with a 29-19 ATS clip as a home underdog since 2000 (60%).
Sean Payton has been a home underdog only 16 times as a head coach in the regular season, going 9-7 SU and 10-6 ATS in those games, including a 24-9 upset of Kansas City as 7-point dogs in Week 8 last year.
Detroit Lions: Home Overs
With a high-octane offense and suspect secondary, the Detroit Lions were a tailor-made Over team — especially inside the fast track at Ford Field. Detroit finished 7-3 Over/Under at home in 2023 and is 17-10 O/U as a host since 2021 (63% Overs).
Last season, Lions’ home games pumped out almost 52 combined points versus an average closing total just shy of 47 O/U. The 2024 look-ahead lines have Detroit’s average home Over/Under at 49 points and four of those numbers are 50 or higher.
With the emphasis on improving the defense this offseason — namely not giving up big passing plays — this home Over trend could get flipped on its ear in the early workings of the schedule.
Green Bay Packers: Wisconsin winters
Home field advantage isn’t worth what it used to be, except for spots like Green Bay in the home stretch of the season.
The “frozen tundra” of Lambeau Field is a big edge for the Green Bay Packers when the Wisconsin winter set in, especially if those visitors come from warm or indoor climates (like two of the three late-season foes in 2024).
Under Matt LaFleur, Green Bay is 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS at home in games played between Week 13 and Week 18. That includes a 2-1 SU/ATS mark in 2023.
Green Bay Packers’ late-season home games
- Week 13 vs. Miami (-3)
- Week 16 vs. New Orleans (-5)
- Week 18 vs. Chicago (-3)
Houston Texans: Divisional road games
The Houston Texans handle their business inside the AFC South. DeMeco Ryans went 4-2 SU and ATS inside the division in his first season as head coach in Houston, continuing the franchise’s feistiness against those foes.
The Texans are 10-7-1 SU and 12-6 ATS against the AFC South since 2021, but it’s the work on the road in those divisional games that has really padded pockets. Houston is 8-1 SU and ATS as a divisional visitor the past three seasons.
Houston Texans’ divisional road games
- Week 1 @ Indianapolis (-1.5, 48)
- Week 13 @ Jacksonville (+1, 47)
- Week 18 @ Tennessee (-3, 45)
Indianapolis Colts: Divisional road games
The AFC South is a tough nut to crack as we’ve had three different division winners the past three seasons, and none of them were the Indianapolis Colts. Indy is lukewarm against AFC South rivals, especially on the road.
Since 2020, the Colts are 6-6 SU and just 3-9 ATS in divisional road stops, including 1-2 SU and ATS in Year 1 under Shane Steichen. This season, Indy gets those sticky spots out of the way with all three AFC South travels coming Week 8 or earlier.
Indianapolis Colts’ divisional road games
- Week 5 @ Jacksonville (+2.5)
- Week 6 @ Tennessee (-1.5)
- Week 8 @ Houston (+4, 48)
Jacksonville Jaguars: London Unders
For the second straight season, the Jacksonville Jaguars will be playing two games in London. Owner Shahid Khan is dedicated to building the game internationally and making his team the face of football in the UK.
Jacksonville is used to making the trip but that hasn’t given it any advantage in terms of wins or ATS success, going 3-3 SU and ATS in UK games since 2018. However, there is a totals trend bubbling up with the Jags on foreign soil.
The team has played Under the total in its last six London games since 2018. Those games have produced a combined average of 37.8 points versus an average O/U total of 45 points.
Jacksonville Jaguars’ London games
- Week 6 vs. Chicago (47.5)
- Week 7 vs. New England (42.5)
Kansas City Chiefs: Home Unders
Scorekeeper at Arrowhead Stadium has become one of the easiest jobs in the NFL the past two seasons, with the Kansas City Chiefs' defense locking down visitors and making a bundle for Under bettors.
Over the past two years, Kansas City is 3-16 Over/Under at home in both regular season and postseason games — an 84% Under wonder. That includes a 1-8 O/U count in 2023.
The Chiefs have limited foes to 21 points or less in 15 of those 19 home stands, with 12 of those closing totals coming in above the key number of 47 points. The 2024 look-ahead lines have K.C.’s average home total number parked just shy of 46.5 O/U.
Las Vegas Raiders: Home favorites
Finding a trend with teeth is tough with the Las Vegas Raiders due to the amount of shuffling on the field, sideline, and front office since the move to Sin City. If anything, the Silver and Black have kept the home bettors happy with success against the spread when playing inside Allegiant Stadium.
The Raiders are 11-5-1 ATS at home over the past two seasons, which includes a 6-2-1 ATS count as hosts last year. Make Las Vegas the favorite in those homestands, and they’re 9-3 SU and ATS since 2022.
According to the look-ahead lines, the Raiders are giving points in only two home games in 2024.
Las Vegas Raiders as home favorites
- Week 3 vs. Carolina (-4)
- Week 12 vs. Denver (-3)
Los Angeles Chargers: Divisional Unders
The Los Angeles Chargers underwent major changes ahead of 2024, so take any trends with this team with a grain of salt. Like the one that has them playing Under the total in 67% of their AFC West games the past three seasons.
Los Angeles is 6-12 Over/Under in divisional games since 2021, including a 1-5 O/U count in 2023. In fact, since moving the franchise to Los Angeles in 2017, the Chargers are 16-26 O/U in AFC West wars (62% Unders).
Los Angeles Chargers’ divisional games
- Week 1 vs. Las Vegas (43.5)
- Week 4 vs. Kansas City (46)
- Week 6 @ Denver (43)
- Week 14 @ Kansas City (44.5)
- Week 16 vs. Denver (43)
- Week 18 @ Las Vegas (43.5)
Los Angeles Rams: Divisional road games
Head coach Sean McVay is among the best barnstorming bets in the NFL when it comes to divisional road games.
During his time in L.A., the Los Angeles Rams are 14-7 SU and 15-6 ATS when visiting an NFC West rival. That includes a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS count in last season’s divisional road outings.
Los Angeles Rams’ divisional road games
- Week 2 @ Arizona -2.5
- Week 9 @ Seattle -1.5
- Week 15 @ San Francisco +6.5
Miami Dolphins: Divisional home games
Say what you want about head coach Mike McDaniel, but the guy comes through for bettors against AFC East opponents.
In two seasons as head coach of the Miami Dolphins, McDaniel is just 7-6 SU in divisional games but a profitable 10-3 ATS, including 5-1 SU and ATS against those rivals inside Hard Rock Stadium.
Miami Dolphins’ divisional home games
- Week 2 vs. Buffalo (-1, 51)
- Week 12 vs. New England (-7.5, 45)
- Week 14 vs. N.Y. Jets (-2, 47.5)
Minnesota Vikings: Indoor Overs
The injuries to Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson impacted one of the best Over bets in football last season. The Minnesota Vikings finished just 7-10 Over/Under after boasting a collective 23-12 O/U count the two years prior.
That contrast wasn’t as great when Minnesota played indoors, finishing with a 5-6 O/U count in covered venues. That makes Minny 20-13 O/U (61% Overs) away from the elements since 2022. The Vikings’ look-ahead totals average out to 45 points and the final six games have them indoors five times.
New England Patriots: Non-conference Unders
When Tom Brady bailed in 2020, the New England Patriots became a hot Under play based on the downtick in offensive output and former coach Bill Belichick’s consistent work on defense. Bookies kept the totals low and slow and New England still leaned Under at 30-37-1 O/U.
The Unders are especially profitable when the Patriots stray out of the AFC. In that three-season span, New England is 6-13 Over/Under in non-conference games, including a 1-4 O/U count in those contests in 2023.
New England Patriots’ non-conference games
- Week 2 vs. Seattle (42.5)
- Week 4 @ San Francisco (45)
- Week 10 @ Chicago (43)
- Week 11 vs. L.A. Rams (43.5)
- Week 15 @ Arizona (44)
New Orleans Saints: Divisional Unders
Two seasons may not be the sample size we’re after when fishing for actionable trends, but during Dennis Allen’s two years as head coach, the New Orleans Saints are 12-22 Over/Under (65% Unders).
Put the Saints against NFC South foes and the Under hits at an 83% clip, boasting a 2-10 O/U mark against divisional opponents since 2022.
New Orleans Saints’ divisional games
- Week 1 vs. Carolina (40.5)
- Week 4 @ Atlanta (44.5)
- Week 6 vs. Tampa Bay (43)
- Week 9 @ Carolina (40.5)
- Week 10 vs. Atlanta (44.5)
- Week 18 @ Tampa Bay (43)
New York Giants: Non-conference Unders
The New York Giants have been a hot Under play with Brian Daboll on the sideline (14-21-1 O/U) and are at their best when it comes to the most boring bet in football when taking on AFC opponents.
New York was a perfect 0-5 Over/Under in non-conference games in 2023 and is 1-9 O/U versus the AFC the last two seasons. This trend goes beyond Daboll’s tenure in East Rutherford though, with the G-Men boasting a 7-20 O/U record in non-conference games since 2018.
New York Giants’ non-conference games
- Week 3 @ Cleveland (42.5)
- Week 6 vs. Cincinnati (45)
- Week 8 @ Pittsburgh (42.5)
- Week 15 vs. Baltimore (44)
- Week 17 vs. Indianapolis (43.5)
New York Jets: Divisional road games
Grasping an actionable trend is tough, considering 2023 was a throwaway in the eyes of New York Jets bettors and this team is very different with Rodgers healthy.
If we just look at Robert Saleh’s record in three seasons with the Jets, we do find a hiccup against AFC East foes and the 2024 campaign will be very competitive with Buffalo and Miami in the division. Since 2021, New York is 4-14 SU and 6-12 ATS versus AFC East foes, including a 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS count in divisional road games.
Two of the three games in which New York is a look-ahead underdog come on the road against AFC East rivals.
New York Jets’ divisional road games
- Week 8 @ New England (-4.5)
- Week 14 @ Miami (+2)
- Week 17 @ Buffalo (+2.5)
Philadelphia Eagles: Divisional road games
Divisional games are always tough. And even with the talent gap between the Philadelphia Eagles and NFC East rivals like New York and Washington, Philly seems to find a way to slip up when visiting its divisional brethren.
Philadelphia went 1-2 SU and 0-2-1 ATS in its three divisional road games in 2023, perpetuating a piss-poor return for sports bettors in recent years. The Eagles are just 4-5 SU and 2-6-1 ATS in NFC East roadies under Sirianni and a collective 6-9 SU and 4-10-1 ATS in divisional road stops since 2019.
Philadelphia Eagles’ divisional road games
- Week 7 @ N.Y. Giants (-4.5)
- Week 10 @ Dallas (+2)
- Week 16 @ Washington (-3)
Pittsburgh Steelers: One-score games
A good indicator of great coaching is how a team performs in the crunch. To steal a line from OutKast, Mike Tomlin has been “cooler than a polar bear's toenails” in close games.
Over the past four seasons, the Pittsburgh Steelers are a collective 32-11 SU and 29-13-1 ATS in one-score games (decided by eight points or less). That includes a 9-2 SU and ATS count in 2023’s nail-biters.
Now, those fortunes in one-score games can quickly flip, but Pittsburgh has proved profitable when the going gets tough. And while it’s impossible to predict those close calls, we can look at the Steelers’ tightest spreads: ranging from -3 to +3.
The team’s 2024 look-ahead lines have 12 spreads in that field goal range. Tomlin is a remarkable 65-45 SU and 62-43-5 ATS (59%) in games with a closing spread between -3 and +3.
San Francisco 49ers: Divisional road Overs
The San Francisco 49ers were one of the best Over bets in football last year, finishing with a 12-8 O/U clip in both the regular season and postseason. That included a perfect 3-0 O/U count on the road in NFC West games.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan is 11-8-1 Over/Under when visiting divisional rivals since 2017, with a 6-2 O/U record in those spots the past three seasons. San Francisco has scored 27 points or more in five of those seven games.
San Francisco 49ers’ divisional road games
- Week 3 @ L.A. Rams (48)
- Week 6 @ Seattle (46.5)
- Week 18 @ Arizona (43)
Seattle Seahawks: Divisional Unders
The Seattle Seahawks needed a shake-up, at least on offense. And a 5-13 Over/Under count in NFC West matchups the past three seasons is evidence of that.
No opponent knows your ins and outs like divisional opponents, and since 2021, Seattle has struggled to score against those foes. Through those 18 divisional clashes, the Seahawks have scored more than 21 points only five times. That includes all six of last year’s games inside the NFC West, leading to a 1-5 O/U count.
Seattle Seahawks’ divisional games
- Week 6 vs. San Francisco (46.5)
- Week 9 vs. L.A. Rams (46.5)
- Week 11 @ San Francisco (46.5)
- Week 12 vs. Arizona (46)
- Week 14 @ Arizona (46)
- Week 18 @ L.A. Rams (47)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Divisional Unders
Deciphering actionable trends is tough for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, considering odds-altering Tom Brady was the QB two seasons ago. The one consistent is head coach Todd Bowles — a defense-first coach that knows how to handle his business inside the division. At least on that side of the ball.
In his two years as head coach, Bowles’ Bucs are 4-8 Over/Under in NFC South showdowns and have allowed more than 21 points in only four of those dozen divisional dances. That includes a 2-4 O/U count in 2023. It also helps that the NFC South has some of the shakiest QB play in the land.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ divisional games
- Week 5 @ Atlanta (44.5)
- Week 6 @ New Orleans (43)
- Week 8 vs. Atlanta (44)
- Week 13 @ Carolina (43)
- Week 17 vs. Carolina (43)
- Week 18 vs. New Orleans (43)
Tennessee Titans: Home underdogs
Given the upheaval in Nashville, any season-to-season trends for the Tennessee Titans are null and void. So, tread lightly.
Perhaps instead of trying to action a trend for the 2024 season, we just honor a fallen factoid. The Titans were always live when getting points under former coach Mike Vrabel. That was especially true at home where Tennessee was 13-6-1 ATS as a dog (67.5%).
This season, the Vrabel-less Titans are home dogs in all but one of their eight games in Smashville. Brian Callahan has big shoes to fill in the eyes of underdog bettors.
Washington Commanders: Divisional home games
It’s tough to transfer any trend over to the new-look Washington Commanders, considering this franchise has undergone a top-to-bottom renovation. That doesn’t stop us from keeping an eye on things with this 2024 group.
Under former head coach Ron Rivera, Washington’s record against NFC East foes at home matched the garbage stadium it played in. The Commanders were 4-8 SU and 4-7-1 ATS in division home games from 2020 to 2023, including a 0-2-1 ATS mark last year.
This trend isn't reserved to only Rivera either. Going back to 2015, Washington is 9-15 SU and ATS when hosting divisional opponents (37.5%).
Washington Commanders’ divisional home games
- Week 2 vs. N.Y. Giants (-3)
- Week 12 vs. Dallas (+3.5)
- Week 16 vs. Philadelphia (+3)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
