The Green Bay Packers come to the Golden State to face the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football in Week 3, playing on a short turnaround after a win over Detroit on Monday.
San Francisco is home after opening the schedule with two straight away games, winning at Detroit and Philadelphia. The NFL betting odds are giving the visiting Packers 3.5 points in the Bay Area, with books still not certain of the validity of the Cheeseheads, who were rolled by New Orleans in Week 1.
Here are our free NFL picks and predictions for Packers at 49ers on September 26.
Packers vs 49ers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The lookahead line for this game, set in the spring, had San Francisco as field-goal chalk and the official Week 3 opening spread didn’t stray too far from that projection. Books opened Green Bay +4 before the Monday game and moved to +3.5 after reposting the spread on Tuesday morning. The total for this game opened at 48.5 and has moved up to 49.5 points.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Packers vs 49ers picks
Picks made on 9/22/2021 at 12:35 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Packers vs 49ers game info
• Location: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
• Date: Sunday, September 26, 2021
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC
Packers at 49ers betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key injuries
Packers: Vernon Scott S (Out), David Bakhtiari OT (Out), Elgton Jenkins G (Out), La'Darius Hamilton DE (Out), Kevin King CB (Out).
49ers: Elijah Mitchell RB (Out), Dre Greenlaw LB (Out), JaMycal Hasty RB (Out), Jalen Hurd WR (Out), Raheem Mostert RB (Out), Dre Kirkpatrick CB (Out), Ambry Thomas CB (Out), Aaron Banks OL (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Packers have been underdogs only seven times during the regular season in two years under head coach Matt LaFleur and are 5-2 SU and ATS when catching the points. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. 49ers.
Packers vs 49ers predictions
Green Bay +3.5 (-115)
Stock in the Packers is down after a dismal Week 1 loss to New Orleans and a so-so Monday night win over the lowly Lions, in which Detroit held a 17-14 halftime lead before getting blanked 21-0 in the final 30 minutes.
Green Bay is a little behind schedule, having to deal with a summer of drama and back-and-forth with Aaron Rodgers fogging focus on the 2021 season. Those issues bled over into the first one and half games of the schedule, and the opening loss to New Orleans was a tough spot for the Packers, playing in a hot and humid neutral-site setting in Jacksonville.
A comeback win against Detroit doesn’t hold a lot of water either, but there might be no better time to buy into Green Bay than Week 3. Not only are the Packers getting the half-point hook on the field goal, but the Niners are once again reeling due to a rash of injuries.
San Francisco’s rushing corps has been decimated and now the defense is starting to come apart at the seems. The 49ers lost linebacker Dre Greenlaw to a groin injury and the secondary is thinning out – not what you want when facing Rodgers – with CBs Emmanuel Moseley and Josh Norman questionable for a unit that already lost Jason Verrett for the season.
Even healthy, the Niners defense hasn’t been great. San Francisco was nearly out-yarded by the Lions and did get outdone by the Eagles in Week 2 – two teams nowhere near the offensive capacity of Green Bay. The red-zone defense has been even worse, with foes getting inside the 49ers’ 20-yard line only five times in two games but walking away with a touchdown in four of those chances.
San Francisco can’t allow this game to turn into a shootout, but with the ground game gimpy and the secondary slim, it could quickly turn that way. In that case, you’ve got to like Rodgers over the QB combo of Jimmy Garoppolo/Trey Lance.
Over 50 (-110)
This total is ticking upwards with early action expecting a high-scoring finish in Santa Clara. A lot of that has to do with Rodgers’ performance in the second half of Monday’s tilt.
Despite a worrisome Week 1, you have to give the reigning MVP the benefit of the doubt. Against Detroit, Rodgers took what the Lions gave him, picking up short gains and finishing with 255 yards on 22-for-27 passing. And when Detroit wasn’t careful, he hit Devante Adams for a 50-yard home run strike.
The 49ers may have to throw more than they would like as well, especially if Green Bay comes out swinging. The running game is up in the air with all those injuries, and if they can get consistent gains on the ground, Kyle Shanahan may have to abandon a playbook that has handed off on 53.66 percent of snaps so far in 2021.
Green Bay’s defense lacks a potent pass rush, generating QB pressure on only 14 of 57 dropbacks in two games, and goes up against a very sound 49ers offensive line. San Francisco owns a pass-block win rate of 68 percent (fourth-best) and are also fourth in adjusted sack rate (3.8%).
Plenty of passes equal big gains and more clock stoppages: always a good recipe for Overs.
Jimmy Garoppolo TD score anytime (+390)
Jimmy Garoppolo played the entire Week 2 matchup versus Philadelphia and didn’t share any snaps with rookie Trey Lance.
He finished 22 for 30 for 189 yards and a touchdown pass but also added 20 yards rushing, five runs for first downs, and a TD on the ground – a one-yard QB keeper on the goal line.
With the running back situation troubling for San Francisco, Jimmy G may get his number called again if the Niners are knocking on the door of the end zone. Green Bay’s red-zone defense has been trash, giving up six TDs on six possessions inside its own 20-yard line.
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