Josh Allen has been one of the best quarterbacks in prime time and his Buffalo Bills enter Sunday Night Football as NFL odds double-digit favorites at home vs. a desperate Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.
Despite a likely positive game script, I’m all in on Allen and the passing game Sunday night, especially with the extra week to prepare and get healthier at receiver. Rodgers and his offense will be in even more trouble with Allen Lazard likely out and the run game nonexistent.
I brek down my three favorite NFL player props for this matchup in my free NFL prop picks for Sunday Night Football between the Packers vs. the Bills. Be sure to also check out Jason Logan's full game betting preview before these teams square off Sunday.
Packers vs Bills props
- Allen Over 277.5 passing yards (-113)
- Jones Under 47.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Davis Over 58.5 receiving yards (-109)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Packers vs Bills SNF props
Prime-time GOAT
No quarterback has a better career QB rating in prime-time games (min. 300 pass attempts) than Buffalo’s Josh Allen. He is averaging 320 yards per game with a 108.6 QB rating under the bright lights of prime time. Now he’ll get to feast on a Green Bay defense that ranks outsides the top half of the league in EPA/play, is struggling to get takeaways, and having communications issues.
On the year, Green Bay has just five total takeaways and two interceptions. If this defense is going to let Allen decide when he gets off the field, it could easily be another 300-yard game for the Buffalo QB who has thrown for at least 297 yards in six of his seven games — with the one outlier being a rainy affair with Baltimore in Week 4.
Add in a week to prepare for a defense that has seen Tyler Heinicke, Zach Wilson, Bailey Zappe, Daniel Jones, and Justin Fields in five of the last six weeks, and this is a top-rated matchup.
Communication is also an issue with this Green Bay defense as ESPN beat writer Rob Demovsky told Bills insider Chris Brown this week.
"They've had all kinds of communication issues," Demovsky told Brown. "If you watch them pre-snap, there are guys turning around looking both ways. Do you have him? Do you have him? Who's got this gap? And there's just way too much of that. To me, that has to come down to coaching. When guys aren't sure where they're supposed to be when the call comes in, that's a problem in terms of preparation. That's what's killed them. Forget the statistics. I know what the running game stats say. They're giving up a ton of yardage. Their pass defense has not been very good. I know the yardage looks good, but there's just way too many guys running open."
Even if Jaire Alexander tries to take away Stefon Diggs (Terry McLaurin went 5/73/1 vs. Alexander last week), Allen is spoiled with talent everywhere and this will be the healthiest his pass catchers have been all season with a bye last week.
Allen has topped his passing total in five of his six games this year and that includes two as double-digit home faves.
Josh Allen Prop: Over 277.5 passing yards (-113)
Say no to Jones
It’s been tough sledding for the Packers’ run game of late. Over the last three weeks, Green Bay is averaging just 64 rushing yards per game which is the second-lowest total over that stretch.
Aaron Jones has rushed 17 times for 32 yards over the last two weeks and now faces the best defense he's seen all season and sits fifth in EPA/rush and rush success rate. We could also see the Packers go back to a closer 50/50 split with AJ Dillon as Jones has been getting heavier usage of late but with poor results.
Green Bay beat reporter Rob Demovsky pointed out this week that Green Bay is seeing a very heavy box as they lack a deep threat at receiver so opposing defenses can load up in the box.
"Their two running backs are probably their most dynamic players, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, but when everyone's loading up to stop the run, it's awfully hard to get them going," Demovsky said. "They tried with Aaron Jones last week. He had a bunch of touches, and it just did not turn into production just because of the way teams are playing them because they know there's just no deep threat."
Add in a game script that could force the Packers to abandon the run and get Jones involved in the passing game more, I’m not seeing him having much if any success on the ground Sunday night.
On the season, the Bills are seeing the fewest RB rush attempts against per game (17.3) and the fewest RB rushing yards per contest at 52.8.
Aaron Jones Prop: Under 47.5 rushing yards (-110)
Getting down on Davis
With the issues the Packers are having on offense, compounded by likely missing Allen Lazard and possibly playing three rookie wide receivers, Buffalo should dominate the time of possession. For a team that’s passing at 64% and is running the third-fastest team in terms of pace of play, a 70-play day from the offense is a great benchmark for Buffalo which means lots of targets for these pass catchers.
Josh Allen is well aware that Green Bay Defensive coordinator Joe Berry has been using Jaire Alexander on opposing top wideouts.
The Buffalo QB told Bills reporter Chris Brown, "They [the Packers] have one of the better corners in the league. He's probably going to follow Stef. We just have to find unique ways to spread the ball around and get other guys involved.”
This sounds like a great endorsement for Gabe Davis’ Over 57.5 receiving yards which is a full 20 yards shorter than Stefon Diggs’.
He isn’t a target hog with a 13.2% target share over his last three games, but with 20.4 air yards per reception and nearly seven yards after the catch per grab on the season, Davis has shown he can top these totals in one or two grabs. Two of his 14 grabs on the year have gone more than 50 yards and he played 98% of the snaps in Week 6. He is also 100% healed from an early-season ankle injury.
If Allen knows he has to look off of the Diggs vs. Alexander matchup, Davis is going to be the biggest benefactor Sunday night. Despite 245 receiving yards over his last two games, his receiving total has climbed just two yards which is still shorter than it was in Week 1 at 60.5.
Green Bay’s other outside corner, Eric Stokes, ranks 87th of 105, per Pro Football Focus. He’s also allowing an absurd 87% completion rate, a 129.7 QB rating, and 14.3 yards per reception when targets on the season.
Gabe Davis Prop: Over 57.5 receiving yards (-109)
