Week 8 kicks off with the best Thursday Night Football game of the season as the 7-0 Arizona Cardinals play host to the short-handed Green Bay Packers, who have a six-game winning streak of their own. We hand-picked our three favorite props to give us a little more skin in the game.
We bring you our favorite free prop picks and predictions for Thursday night’s Packers vs. Cardinals Week 8 battle.
Packers vs Cardinals prop picks
- Kyler Murray Over 28.5 rushing yards
- James Conner anytime TD
- Green Bay Packers team total Under 21.5
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Packers vs Cardinals TNF props
A Song of Ice and Kyler
The Green Bay Packers have a defense that is worse than most people think. It’s the No. 23 weighted DVOA defense and the fifth-worst success rate against the run. The Packers just gave up 196 yards on the ground to Washington last week. We love Chase Edmonds’ Over 38.5 rushing yards, which is a play we’ve already discussed in our game preview, but Taylor Heinicke ran for 95 yards on 10 carries last week and we like Kyler Murray to keep that quarterback running trend alive.
Murray isn’t rushing as much as he used to and is averaging just 18 yards per game on the ground, but he's still running 6.14 times per game and sooner or later he is going to pop off. The Cardinals comfortably winning over their last two games might have a lot to do with the minimal yardage.
The Packers allow 34 rushing yards per game to opposing QBs this year, which is the second-highest rate in football. Yes, Heinicke’s 95 yards last week has a lot to do with that, but Justin Fields had 43 yards in Week 6 while Jameis Winston had 37 yards on six carries in Week 1. Green Bay hasn’t faced many mobile quarterbacks, but the ones it has seen have gained some yards.
Murray’s rushing total is as low as 28.5 after opening at 25.5. His rushing total has dropped in four straight weeks and this could be the lowest we get it at all year. This is Daniel Jones territory, not Murray territory. It’s the Over for us here and we aren’t too worried about his outputs in Weeks 1 through 7.
PICK: Kyler Murray Over 28.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Medal of Conner
Did we tell you we love Chase Edmonds? Well, unfortunately for him, he doesn’t get much use in the red zone. James Conner is the man inside the 20 for the Cards and has 20 of the 34 running back RZ totes this year. He has six rushing TDs in his last five games, with all five coming inside the RZ and four of them coming from the 1-yard line.
His usage is in decline with a healthy Edmonds now contesting for snaps, but his role near the end zone is secure. Kyler Murray has also not rushed for a TD since Week 3 and Conner's four one-yard plunges show that coach Kliff Kingsbury doesn’t fool around in tight.
Conner’s TD prop is sitting as high as +137 at bet365, which is a great price considering it is as low as +100 at DraftKings. It’s the lowest weekly price we’ve seen on Conners, but getting the goalline back at +137 in a game that has a total of 50 points on a team that is a near-TD favorite is a steal.
PICK: James Conner anytime TD (+137 at bet365)
Terrible Team, Totally
The Cardinals have allowed more than 20 points just once this year, which was versus the Vikings. They’ve held the Browns, Rams, 49ers and Titans to 20 points or less and now face a Green Bay offense without a receiver who has accounted for 42 percent of the team’s air yards in Davante Adams, while Allen Lazard also has a 13 percent share in air yards.
Aaron Rodgers will have to look elsewhere against the No. 2 DVOA defense and tight end Robert Tonyan is likely not the right move. Arizona is the best TE-defending team in the league, allowing a league-low 22.3 receiving yards while surrendering zero TE TDs to date.
How about the run? Arizona does rank 19th in defensive rush success rate, but they have allowed just one rushing TD all year and have held opposing running backs to just 86 yards per game. That includes holding the Browns, the league’s best rushing team, to just 73 yards on 3.8 yards per carry. Green Bay’s Aaron Jones hasn’t scored a rushing team since Week 3 while the Packers have just one rushing TD over the last three weeks.
Green Bay also has a bottom-10 DVOA defense, and sits in 26th in defensive success with the fifth-worst defensive success rate against the run and a banged-up secondary. Arizona sits third in time of possession and could cut into Rogers’ TOP.
On a short week, on the road, crippled at WR, facing a Top-5 defense and its offensive weaknesses obvious to Arizona’s defensive strengths, we're hitting the Under on the Packers’ team total of 21.5.
PICK: Green Bay Packers team total Under 21.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Season to date: 43-51 -7.45 units (Risking to win 1 unit per play)
