Injury uncertainty clouds the outlook of the NFC Wild Card matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday, January 12.
While I expect both Jordan Love (hand) and Jalen Hurts (concussion) to play, there’s obviously still potential of aggravating prior injuries and/or not being as effective behind center.
Here are my early Packers vs. Eagles predictions and NFL picks for Wild Card Weekend.
Packers vs Eagles predictions
Early spread lean
Packers +4.5 (-110 at Caesars)
My analysis
The Green Bay Packers opened at +4, and while we missed the available +5.5, I also value that second wave of buyback. Landing the hook on the key number of four is also a bonus alongside the dip to the total.
Additionally, there’s been a huge disparity in the strength of schedule these two teams have played, which has propped up the Philadelphia Eagles statistically.
The Eagles played the second-easiest schedule per PFF, while the Packers played the fifth hardest. ESPN’s NFL Power Index has Philly at fifth easiest and Green Bay again at fifth hardest.
This is reinforced by, and aligns with, the Packers being ranked higher in DVOA (third) than the Eagles (fifth). There isn’t a huge gap in three of the four EPA or success-rate numbers, either.
 Eagles |
 Packers |
|
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | 0.11 (sixth) | 0.081 (eighth) |
| Success rate | 45.2% (13th) | 44.8% (14th) |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.087 (third) | -0.066 (fourth) |
| Success rate allowed | 39.9% (first) | 44.7% (21st) |
Additionally, while I do expect Philly quarterback Jalen Hurts to play, it isn’t a guarantee he clears concussion protocol. And he’s obviously more prone to be rusty or aggravate the injury. Additionally, there’s potential Hurts won’t be as active in the running game.
Finally, while the Packers don’t have many true statement wins on their resume, five of their six losses have been one-possession results, and they went 5-2 against the spread down the stretch.
I like the Pack to keep this game interesting, especially with head coach Matt LaFleur sporting a 23-12-0 record against the spread as an underdog (65.7%).
Early Over/Under lean
Under 45.5 (-110 at Caesars)
My analysis
Hat tip to colleague Jason Logan for cherry picking the opening 47.5 total in his Wild Card Weekend Bet Now, Bet Later column,
“We have two of the more run-heavy playbooks doing battle in Philadelphia, which means short gains with the clock running — a recipe for Under results. The Eagles and Packers sit No. 1 and No. 3 respectively in rushing play percentage.”
As highlighted, we’re also talking about a pair of elite defenses in EPA per play allowed, and the Eagles and Packers respectively rank first (5.8) and sixth (6.5) in adjusted yards per passing attempt. This is another reason to expect both offenses to stick to their game plans and take it to the ground early and often Sunday.
Of course, Philadelphia also allowed the second-fewest points per game (17.8), while Green Bay allowed the sixth-fewest (19.9). The Eagles have only cashed the Over in seven of their past 22 games.
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Packers vs Eagles live odds
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