The 4-1 Green Bay Packers will look to rebound after getting embarrassed last Sunday by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as they head to Houston to take on a 1-5 Texans team that is coming off a dramatic loss in Week 6.
Green Bay opened as a three-point favorite and the line has since come off the three and risen to -3.5. The total has stayed put at 56.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Packers vs Texans on October 25 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Green Bay Packers vs Houston Texans betting preview
Weather
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Key Injuries
Packers: Aaron Jones RB (Out), Allen Lazard WR (Out), David Bakhtiari T (Out).
Texans: Jordan Akins TE (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Packers have covered in each of their four wins this year. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Texans.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
There is no polite way to put it: the Packers were terrible last week. Green Bay scored the first 10 points then gave up the next 38 straight to the Bucs. Aaron Rodgers threw two interceptions for the first time since 2017 and the defense looked like it gave up late. Green Bay will bounce back in Week 7 as they are 10-0 ATS over their last 10 following a game in which they didn’t cover. It helps to play a Houston team that has allowed 30 points or more in three of its five games and is coming off an overtime loss in which they allowed over 600 yards of offense to the Titans.
On the year, Houston is giving up 414 yards per game (29th), allowing third downs at 47 percent (23rd) and conceding 3.7 TDs per game (28th). The Texans’ schedule has been tougher than average, but they are a legit 1-5 team (with no first-round pick) and their only win came against the Jaguars in the first game after firing their head coach. Green Bay should be able to take out last week’s frustrations on the Texans in Week 7.
PREDICTION: Green Bay -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Rodgers will be looking to silence critics in Week 7, having his best offensive weapon in Davante Adams back and healthy. Houston is allowing 162 yards per game to opposing WRs and has given up nine TDs to wide receivers on the year. Green Bay will be able to score, but the big part of this Over is Houston’s ability to score on the Packers.
The Pack owned the 25th-worst DVOA rush and pass defense heading into last week and got beat up on the ground (158 yards allowed) as the Bucs never really had to pass once they got the lead. Houston QB Deshaun Watson has tossed for 300 yards or more in three straight and has collected nine passing TDs against three teams with similar or better defenses than the Packers.
The 56-point total is the second-highest total on the board in Week 7. It’s also a season-high for both teams who are a combined 7-4 O/U on the year. We can’t take the Under here, and that leaves us one choice.
PREDICTION: Over 56 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
Derrick Henry ran all over the Texans last week as the big back collected 212 yards on the ground and ripped off a 94-yard TD run. Houston had the 26th-worst DVOA rush defense before getting annihilated by Henry and the Titans. Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook had 130 yards rushing in Week 4 against Houston, the Steelers’ James Conner topped 100 yards in Week 3 and Chiefs’ rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire also crushed the Texans running for over 130 yards in Week 1. In short, the Texans can’t stop the run.
Green Bay RB Aaron Jones wasn’t needed much last week thanks to the game script, but the running back could be in for a huge day on Sunday. Before the Week 5 game, Jones was averaging 5.8 yards per carry and 93.5 yards rushing a game. The yards per carry was the second-best rate among RBs and only Henry and Cook had more rushing yards per contest. Jones should eat on Sunday.
PREDICTION: Aaron Jones Over 78.5 rushing yards (-118)
Packers vs Texans betting card
- Green Bay -3.5 (-110)
- Over 56 (-110)
- Aaron Jones Over 78.5 rushing yards (-118)
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