The Sunday Night Football odds for NFL Week 17 turns the spotlight to a playoff survival NFC North battle between the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings tonight at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Both teams are sitting just outside the final Wild Card spot, and while whoever wins will have decent NFL odds to make the postseason, the loser will likely be eliminated.
Oddsmakers project a tight battle tonight in this rivalry showdown, with Week 17 odds installing the Vikings as slim 1.5-point home favorites with the Over/Under at 42.5.
Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Packers vs. Vikings on December 31. Be sure to also check out our SNF prop picks and Jordan Love player spotlight!
Packers vs Vikings odds
Packers vs Vikings predictions
This total climbed as high as 46.5 when it was expected that Nick Mullens would be at QB for the Minnesota Vikings, and while the gunslinger veteran has been benched for rookie Jaren Hall, the 3-point drop in the total is too steep.
Let's not forget that Mullens is just a career backup and that Hall didn't look out of place when playing spot duty earlier this season, completing eight of 10 passes for 101 yards in appearances against the Packers and Falcons. It also says a lot about head coach Kevin O'Connell's faith in the fifth-round rookie that he's willing to start him in a game of this magnitude.
This Green Bay Packers defense has made Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young look like Peyton Manning the last two weeks, and the week before that they allowed Giants rookie Tommy DeVito to complete 81% of his passes for 158 yards while adding another 71 yards on the ground.
Green Bay's defense has been mediocre all season and injuries have piled up with linebacker De'Vondre Campbell refusing to play hurt anymore while nose tackle T.J. Slaton and safety Darnell Savage are questionable. They had just gotten back starting corners Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes but Stokes is now out again while Alexander was suspended for his coinflip antics last week.
While this Green Bay secondary will be vulnerable against a Vikes offense anchored by All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson, Green Bay's offense should do damage as well. Despite having a banged-up and inexperienced WR corps, Jordan Love has made huge strides at quarterback.
Over the last six weeks, Love has completed 67.8% of his passes for 263 yards per game while throwing 13 touchdowns and just one pick. The Vikings also blitz at the highest rate in the NFL, and Love ranks ninth in the league in passing grade when blitzed per PFF (among QBs with at least 100 dropbacks).
The Packers finally have running back Aaron Jones at full strength (season-high 21 carries for 127 yards last week). They should be able to move the ball against a Minnesota defense that overperformed at the start of the season but regressed in recent weeks and has key injuries of its own.
Minnesota's second-best pass rusher D.J. Wonnum suffered a season-ending injury last week while top corner Mekhi Blackmon is questionable with another starting CB in Byron Murphy Jr. ruled out. Go against the movement on the total and take the Over.
My best bet: Over 42.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Packers vs Vikings same-game parlay
Over 42.5
Jayden Reed Over 4.5 receptions
Jordan Love 250+ passing yards
The Packers will likely be without wide receiver Christian Watson again and with Dontayvion Wicks listed as questionable, Jayden Reed should continue to see plenty of targets.
The second-round rookie hauled in six of eight targets for 52 yards last week and had eight catches on a season-high 10 targets in Week 15. The slot receiver is averaging just 5.9 yards per reception on 22 catches over the last four games, so I'm reluctant to bet the Over on his receiving yards but I expect him to log more than 4.5 receptions.
Love has been extremely efficient over the last couple months and has thrown for more than 260 yards in five of his last seven games. Green Bay will also likely choose to attack the Vikings through the air since they are significantly worse against the pass than the run and due to those injuries at CB.
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Packers vs Vikings spread and Over/Under analysis
This line has seen plenty of movement, opening with the Vikings at -2 and moving down to a pick'em before ticking back up to -1.5. The opening O/U was set at 43.5, climbed all the way up to 46.5, and has now ticked down to 42.5.
The Packers are coming off a 33-30 win against Carolina where they allowed the Panthers to cover the spread thanks to a pair of touchdowns in the fourth quarter. That allowed them to rebound from back-to-back defeats against the Bucs and Giants.
The Vikings are fresh off a 30-24 loss to the Lions following a 27-24 defeat against the Bengals. Mullens had 411 passing yards against Detroit but also had four interceptions and seven turnover-worthy plays, leading to Minnesota benching him for the rookie Hall.
The Vikings beat the Packers 24-10 when these teams previously met up in October. However, both of these squads were very different at the time with Minnesota still having Kirk Cousins at QB and T.J. Hockenson at tight end while Green Bay was still searching for its offensive identity.
Packers vs Vikings betting trend to know
The Over is 5-0 in the Packers' last five games. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Vikings.
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Packers vs Vikings game info
| Location: | U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Sunday, December 31, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
| Opening odds: | Vikings -2, 43.5 O/U |
Packers vs Vikings latest injuries
Packers vs Vikings weather
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