Week 1 in the NFL features an NFC North rivalry on Sunday with the Minnesota Vikings hosting the Green Bay Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium.
After back-to-back seasons of missing the playoffs, the Vikes will try to start off on the right foot against a Green Bay side that has cruised to division titles each of the last three years.
Oddsmakers are expecting a close contest with the Packers opening as short 2-point road favorites when the line hit the board in May, before slimming to -1.5. Here are our best free Packers vs. Vikings NFL picks and predictions for September 10.
Packers vs Vikings best odds
Packers vs Vikings picks and predictions
There are plenty of reasons to like the Over 4.5 receptions for Vikings wideout Adam Thielen, especially since you can get it at plus money.
The veteran was banged up last season but still finished with 67 catches in 13 games, and he had an impressive performance against the Packers in Week 11 when he was targeted 10 times and hauled in eight catches for 82 yards.
The Packers will likely shadow All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson with stud corner Jaire Alexander, which should open things up for Thielen, Minnesota's unquestioned No. 2 target.
He'll also benefit from a Vikings offense that should pass more under new head coach Kevin O'Connell after years of Mike Zimmer's run-heavy scheme.
My best bet: Adam Thielen Over 4.5 receptions (+110 at BetMGM)
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Packers vs Vikings betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
The Packers claimed their third straight NFC North title last year, which was also their third consecutive season of winning 13 games. Although the Vikes have finished below .500 the last two years, they still split the regular season series against Green Bay, and this is a rivalry that has been extremely close historically.
The Packers have a strong running back duo in Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon but a subpar group of receiving targets surrounds star quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
They traded away one of the best wideouts in the league in Davante Adams and replaced him with the perenially- underachieving Sammy Watkins and a rookie from North Dakota State who will take time to adjust to the NFL. Allen Lazard had a career-high 513 receiving yards last year and is expected to step into the No. 1 role, but he is doubtful to play on Sunday due to an ankle injury.
The Packers are also banged up on the line, where left tackle David Bakhtiari and Pro Bowl guard Elgton Jenkins are questionable after recovering from serious knee injuries.
On paper, the Packers should be strong on the defensive side of the ball. However, as a unit they didn't do enough last year and finished 16th in defensive pass DVOA according to Football Outsiders, while ranking 28th in rush defense DVOA.
The Vikes were just a little bit better on that side of the ball, ranking 13th in pass defense DVOA and 25th in rush defense DVOA. Minnesota will be adjusting to a 3-4 scheme under new defensive coordinator Ed Donatell and they have the edge rushers to make that system work with Za'darius Smith coming over from Green Bay to bookend Danielle Hunter.
On offense, the Vikes have some terrific playmakers in All-Pro wideout Jefferson and three-time Pro Bowl running back Dalvin Cook. Their young offensive line needs seasoning but they should be able to move the ball with those weapons surrounding Kirk Cousins.
Cousins gets plenty of criticism for his play in games that matter (not to mention prime-time contests) but the veteran is generally productive and completed 66.3% of his passes for 4,221 yards, and 33 touchdowns against just seven interceptions last year.
Over/Under analysis
There are strong Over trends in this matchup. The Packers ended last year going 6-2 O/U in their last eight games while the Vikings were a sizzling 7-1 to the Over in their final eight contests. The Over has also cashed in four straight meetings.
However, the Packers should be improved on defense and regress on offense this year, which could lead to the Under 46.5 being the play on Sunday. Reports out of training camp suggested that Green Bay's first-team defense was getting the better of Rodgers and the offense, which makes a lot of sense when you look at the caliber of players each unit is trotting out.
Alexander suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 4 and his return gives Green Bay a true lockdown corner. Meanwhile, 24-year-old edge rusher Rashan Gary looks to be on the verge of a breakout year and is tied for eighth on the Defensive Player of the Year odds board. The Packers also added a pair of top draft picks from Georgia's dominant stop-unit to shore up their run defense and the addition of veteran lineman Jarran Reed can't be overlooked.
Rodgers has been a one-man army in the past but his current crop of receivers is among the worst he has ever had and will likely be led by Watkins and a 32-year-old Randall Cobb.
He'll be facing a new-look Vikes defense that could have a fearsome pass rush with Smith and Hunter looking healthy. Hunter racked up 14.5 sacks in both 2018 and 2019 before a neck injury wiped out his 2020 campaign and a pec injury brought his year to a close in 2021 after he picked up six sacks through his first seven games.
Smith racked up a total of 26 sacks with the Packers in 2019 and 2020 but missed virtually all of last year with a back injury. He signed a $42-million contract with Minny in the offseason and has vowed revenge on his former team that he believes treated him poorly.
Packers vs Vikings game info
• Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
• Date: Sunday, September 11, 2022
• Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
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Packers vs Vikings betting trend to know
Vikings are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a home underdog. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Vikings.
