Editor's note: This preview was written prior to news that Kyler Murray is dealing with an ankle injury and is trending towards not playing this Sunday.
The Arizona Cardinals turned heads with a big win last weekend despite missing stars Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins.
The Cardinals expect to have those standouts back in Week 10 and the NFL betting odds are laying it on thick, giving plenty of points to the visiting Carolina Panthers, who will be without their starting quarterback this Sunday. Sam Darnold will miss time with a shoulder injury, leaving backup QB P.J. Walker to face Arizona’s aggressive defense.
Check out our NFL free picks and predictions for Panthers at Cardinals on November 14.
Panthers vs Cardinals odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Arizona opened as low as -9.5 last Sunday night, but that spread didn’t stick around long as books adjusted to -10 within the first 12 hours of action. Action continued to come in on the Cardinals and, along with the Darnold news, the spread jumped to Arizona -10.5. The total for Week 10’s matchup opened as high as 45.5 points and has slimmed to 44.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Panthers vs Cardinals picks
Picks made on 11/10/2021 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Panthers vs Cardinals game info
• Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
• Date: Sunday, November 14, 2021
• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Panthers at Cardinals betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Panthers: Sam Darnold QB (Out), Cameron Erving T (Out), Matt Paradis C (Out), Phil Hoskins DT (Out), Rashaan Melvon CB (Out), Stantley Thomas-Oliver CB (Out), Joseph Charlton P (Out).
Cardinals: Max Garcia C (Out), DeAndre Hopkins WR (Out), Kyler Murray QB (Out), Chase Edmonds RB (Out), Justin Pugh G (Out), Jonathan Ward RB (Out), James Wiggins S (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 10-2 in the Panthers’ last 12 games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Panthers vs. Cardinals.
Panthers vs Cardinals predictions
Cardinals -10.5 (-110)
The best of the number has passed us by with this midweek wager, but given the state of the Panthers – especially their quarterback situation and offensive line issues – the Cardinals should cruise with Murray and Hopkins back in action.
Walker steps in for Darnold again, but while the point spread value between the quarterbacks isn’t much, the injuries on Carolina's offensive line aren’t going to help the second-stringer out. The Panthers put left tackle Cameron Erving and center Matt Paradis on IR and are holding out hope that Pat Elflein can return to action after sitting out with a hamstring injury since Week 2.
Pass protection has been problematic for the Panthers all season, having allowed a total of 25 sacks while boasting a pass block win rate of just 51 percent (28th) along with an adjusted sack rate sitting 26th in the league.
Now, that underperforming O-line is undermanned and facing Arizona’s ultra-aggressive defense on the road. The Cardinals sit fourth in sacks with 25, and blitz on almost 29 percent of opponent dropbacks this season. They also rank third in adjusted sack rate at Football Outsiders at 7.8 percent. That chaos up front has manifested into game-changing defensive play with seven interceptions and 10 fumbles recovered.
Any extra possessions given to this Cardinals offense is icing on the cake, and should help Arizona comfortably clear this hefty pointspread. The Cards rank second in points per play (+0.472) and fourth in Offensive DVOA, helping them cover the spread in seven of their eight outings this season – headlined by an ATS win as 20.5-point chalk at home to Houston in Week 7.
Keep an eye on injury updates around Murray and Hopkins, but we like Arizona to add to that wagering windfall in Week 10.
Under 44 (-110)
To the rejoice of fantasy footballers everywhere, Carolina's dynamic running back Christian McCaffrey returned to action in Week 9 – a bright spot for this stumbling playbook. McCaffrey had 106 total yards of offense in the 24-6 loss to New England, but he can’t singlehandedly make up for a poor passing game that will struggle to produce even more this Sunday.
Walker will find himself under duress and hurrying throws with the Cardinals’ pass rush cracking down, which won’t help a receiving corps leading the league in dropped passes (20) and sitting second-last in EPA per dropback (-0.111) on the year. Due to Darnold being under pressure on nearly 29 percent of his dropbacks, Carolina’s air attack is averaging a mere 7.5 intended air yards per pass attempt and has lacked the explosiveness to keep opposing defenses honest.
Arizona enters Week 10 ranked No. 2 in EPA allowed per play in the NFL (-0.139) and while it has been susceptible to the run game over the course of the schedule, defensive coordinator Vance Joseph can sell out and stack the box without fear of the Panthers striking for many gains over the top.
The Cardinals offense will be in no hurry to give the football back. Arizona runs a play every 28.78 seconds – 23rd in terms of tempo – and sits fifth in average time of possession at 32:08. With Murray and the WRs still working their way back from ailments, the Cards could throw a lot of handoffs at their opponent in Week 10. They rushed for 139 yards on 39 carries in the win over San Francisco while also utilizing RB James Conner a lot in the short passing game.
The Panthers are no slouches on defense, sitting No. 6 in Defensive DVOA, but they have been roughed up by the run (23rd in EPA per run since Week 4). Carolina will put Murray's ankle to the test with its blitz-heavy playbook, stirring up pressure on 27 percent of dropbacks and collecting 23 sacks of its own. Arizona also has injuries on the O-line, with guards Justin Pugh and Max Garcia hurting.
Carolina first score: Field goal (+105)
Carolina kicker Zane Gonzalez had better ice his foot ahead of Sunday’s showdown in the desert.
He’s been very busy over the past month, attempting a dozen field goals over the past five games and going a perfect 12-for-12 on those kicks. Gonzalez has opened scoring for the Panthers in three straight contests and four of the last five.
The Cardinals sit second in the NFL in third-down defense, holding foes to a 31.73-percent success rate, which has consistently ushered the opposing kicking team on the field. With Walker under center behind a patchwork offensive line, field goals may be all the Panthers get in Week 10.
