The Kansas City Chiefs will be looking for their eighth win of the season and fourth ATS win in a row Sunday as they host the Carolina Panthers, who have dropped two of their last three. Christian McCaffrey is questionable again after missing Carolina’s previous six games. The Cats are 4-2 SU without their star running back while the Chiefs have outscored their previous three opponents 104-42.
Kansas City opened at -11.5 and quickly moved to -12.5 before falling back down to -10.5. The total has also had some early movement as it opened at 51 and moved to 53 between Sunday and Monday night.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Panthers vs Chiefs on November 8 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs betting preview
Weather
Arrowhead stadium should be decently windy on Sunday with winds up to 17 mph in the afternoon. It should be a dry game with temperatures in the mid-60s. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Panthers: Russell Okung T (Out), Sean Chandler S (Out), Jeremy Chinn S (Out).
Chiefs: Mitchell Schwartz T (Out), Sammy Watkins WR (Out), Darius Harris LB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Chiefs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a losing record. Find more NFL betting trends for Panthers vs. Chiefs.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Carolina Panthers’ defense proved last week versus the Falcons that they can’t get off the field. Atlanta was just 3-for-9 on third downs, but punted just once thanks to being in field goal range. Also irritating about the Panthers is how slow their offense plays. Carolina ran just 52 plays and had the ball for only 23 minutes. Weather conditions weren’t ideal, but the Panthers still run the fourth-fewest plays per game. Getting Christian McCaffrey back doesn’t mean an easy transition, as the team has played five games without him and this offense has developed a new identity.
Carolina is 3-1 ATS on the road this year but they haven’t played anyone as good as Kansas City — their most difficult opponent was Tampa Bay who they lost to 31-17 in Week 3 as 7.5-point dogs. In Week 6, the Chiefs ran for 245 yards and covered. In Week 7, they scored a defensive- and a special-teams TD while creating four turnovers and covering.
Last week, Patrick Mahomes tossed for over 400 yards and five TDs and covered. The Chiefs can beat teams in so many ways and the Panthers just have too many weaknesses (No. 17 DVOA pass defense and No. 26 DVOA rush defense) and may be without two Top-30 CBs.
PREDICTION: Kansas City -10.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Chiefs/Jets game last week was one of the few totals unaffected by poor weather conditions. This week is shaping up to be the same. The total has climbed two points to 53 despite mid-to-high winds (16-24 mph) in the forecast at Arrowhead Stadium. Both teams come into Week 9’s matchup a combined 3-9 O/U across their last six games and Carolina has yet to hit an Over of 50 points or more (0-3 O/U) this year.
Carolina’s QB, Teddy Bridgewater, had to exit last week’s game briefly after a vicious hit to his head/neck. His backup, XFLer P.J. Walker didn't pass the eye test, and if Bridgewater were to miss any time in Week 9, this Carolina offense could struggle to score even with a rusty McCaffrey.
Kansas City stinks against the run (31st DVOA rush defense), but their defensive strength matches up well against Carolina’s impressive passing game. Carolina is converting just 38% of its third downs over the last games and could struggle to move the markers against an underappreciated Kansas City secondary.
PREDICTION: Under 53 (-110)
Team Prop Pick
The Chiefs were one of our few bright spots in a rough Week 8. KC managed to score in every quarter against the New York Jets for a plus-money win and Andy Reid’s world Champions have now scored in 29 of 34 quarters this year. Kansas City has hit this prop in three straight weeks and will look for a fourth in a row against a Carolina defense that let the Falcons score in every quarter in a monsoon in Week 8.
The Panthers have allowed a point in 14 straight quarters and have let the Bears, Falcons and Saints cash the “score in every quarter” prop in consecutive weeks. If the Bears can do it, then K.C. is a great play at plus money.
PREDICTION: Kansas City to score in every quarter — YES (+120)
Panthers vs Chiefs betting card
- Kansas City -10.5 (-110)
- Under 53 (-110)
- Kansas City to score in every quarter — YES (+120)
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