The Atlanta Falcons hope their NFL season won’t come to an end on Sunday when they play host to the rival Carolina Panthers.
Needing a win, my Panthers vs. Falcons predictions have them taking care of business courtesy of a big day on the ground for Bijan Robinson.
Join me as I break down my favorite NFL picks for Sunday, January 5 with kickoff at 1 p.m. ET, live on FOX.
Panthers vs Falcons prediction
Panthers vs Falcons spread prediction
The Falcons beat the Panthers by 18 earlier this season, one of only two Atlanta victories all season that have come by 7+ points. The other came two weeks ago in a beatdown of the Giants.
In 12 defeats this season, the Panthers have stayed within nine points in just three of those games. All three came in successive games against the Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Eagles, surprisingly enough. But in their last three games, they’ve been torched for a total of 108 points.
Atlanta must win this game, and the Panther defense has been abysmal over the past month. I lean toward the Falcons covering the spread here.
Panthers vs Falcons moneyline prediction
The Falcons need help to reach the playoffs, but they must win the game for that to matter. The shift to Michael Penix, Jr at quarterback has paid dividends, with a blowout win over the Giants and a close defeat last week to the Commanders in overtime.
Carolina has nothing to play for, and I’m not sure it would matter, even if that wasn’t the case. I’d stay away, given the heavy juice, but the Falcons are the call on this one.
Panthers vs Falcons total prediction
The Over here is a heavy lean for me. Atlanta has had issues dealing with mobile quarterbacks, and Bryce Young is playing well down the stretch. While the offense hasn’t put up a ton of points, he’s accounted for at least two touchdowns in four of his last five starts.
That will likely be enough to push this total Over 48 points. The Panthers have given up 30+ points in three straight games, including 48 last week to the Bucs. Atlanta won 38-20 when these teams met earlier this season, and we could see a similar scoreline here.
My best bet
Bijan Robinson Over 96.5 rushing yards (-120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Carolina Panthers have lost five of their last six games, starting with a loss to the Chiefs back on November 24th. What’s most notable about that game, for our purposes, is that it’s the only time the Panthers have held an opposing running back under 100 rushing yards in their last eight contests.
In fact, the Panthers are by far the worst run defense in the NFL. Not only are they allowing over 25 more rushing yards per game than the second-worst Giants, their 144 rushing yards allowed to running backs per contest are 37 more than any other team in the league.
That means the Atlanta Falcons should be preparing to feed Bijan Robinson early and often, something they’ve been doing plenty of lately. The back has carried the ball 20+ times in four of his last five games, toting the ball 109 times in that span. And he’s had at least 90 rushing yards in all five contests.
So to see his total sitting below 100 yards not only surprised me, but it made me put two units on him to breach his total of 96.5 yards. Robinson has averaged 4.7 yards per game this season, in part because he’s already played the other four worst rushing defenses in the NFL.
That includes each of Robinson's last two games, where he ran for 90 yards against the Commanders and 94 against the Giants.
Now, I don’t blame you for seeing those totals and asking why I’d be so bullish on him getting to the century mark. The answer is a simple one—the Panthers have been getting worse against the run as the season has come to a close.
That’s one of the things that happens with you lose three of your top linebackers down the stretch.
Over their last three games, the Panthers have given up an average of 206.3 rushing yards per game. And while two of those opponents—Tampa Bay and Arizona—are ranked in the Top 7 in yards per game, the Cowboys have rushed for just 97.2 yards per contest this season.
And yet, the Panthers allowed Rico Dowdle to go for a season-high 149 yards on 25 carries. Perhaps the most amazing part of his stat line is the fact his longest run of the game was just 12 yards.
To reach the playoffs, the Falcons must win and get some help. That’s a lot of pressure to heap on the shoulders of a rookie quarterback, which is why Robinson will likely be an absolute workhorse.
Robinson needed just 15 carries earlier this season to get 95 yards in a win over the Panthers. With 20+ carries likely in his future, he’ll easily blow past his total and bring home an easy win for Covers bettors.
Panthers vs Falcons same-game parlay
Bijan Robinson Over 96.5 rushing yards
Falcons Team Total Over 29.5 points
Drake London Over 69.5 receiving yards
It’s not just the run defense that’s been bad for the Panthers of late. Carolina’s last three games have seen opponents gain 7.8 yards per pass attempt and 241.3 passing yards per game, both among the six worst teams in the NFL in that span.
That’s a key reason why the Panthers have given up at least 30 points in all three contests. And given Atlanta was able to drop 38 on the Panthers on the road earlier this season, I don’t see a problem with history repeating itself here.
Michael Penix Jr has attempted 62 passes in his two starts, and Drake London has been the target of 21 of them. The receiver has caught 12 of those passes and racked up 106 yards against the Commanders last week on seven catches.
The Panthers have given up some big yardage totals the past month to primary receivers, with two Buccaneers going for 77+ yards last week. It’s hard to see London failing to clear 70 yards for the fourth time in six games, especially given his blooming connection with his rookie quarterback.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Panthers vs Falcons odds
Panthers vs Falcons live odds
Panthers vs Falcons opening odds
- Spread: Carolina +7.5 (-105) | Atlanta -7.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Carolina (+350) | Atlanta (-450)
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Panthers vs Falcons spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Falcons opened as 7.5-pt favorites, with the line moving quickly to have them laying an additional point.
- Carolina has covered in 7 of 16 games this season, while the Falcons have gone 6-9-1 ATS. The Falcons covered a six-point spread earlier this season against the Panthers.
- The total sits at 48, slightly up from the 47.5 opening total.
- The Over is 12-4 in Carolina games this year, while the Under is 10-6 for Atlanta. The Under is also 4-1 in Atlanta’s last five games at home, while the Over is 5-2 in the last five road games for the Panthers.
- According to Covers Consensus, 61% of spread picks are laying the points with Atlanta, while 60% of total picks are siding with the Over.
Panthers vs Falcons betting trend to know
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Panthers vs. Falcons.
Panthers vs Falcons game info
| Location: | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Sunday, 1-5, 2025 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Panthers vs Falcons latest injuries
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