The Green Bay Packers have a chance to take the outright lead in the NFC as they battle with the league’s No. 26 pass defense in the Carolina Panthers on Saturday night.
The Packers have the highest-scoring offense as QB Aaron Rodgers has been putting on a clinic over the last two months, throwing for three or more TDs in seven of his last eight games.
Green Bay opened as nine-point favorites, but most books moved to -8.5 by Sunday night. As with most Green Bay games, the total is one of the higher ones on the board for Week 15, sitting at 51 and trending up. The Packers have been favored by more than a TD in four of their last five games and have gone 1-3 ATS over that time.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Panthers vs Packers on Saturday, December 19 (8:15 p.m. ET).
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers Betting Preview
Weather
It should be a cloudy and chilly day in Wisconsin on Saturday night with temperatures expected in the low-30s at game time. Winds of around 4 mph are forecasted. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Panthers: Christian McCaffrey RB (Doubtful), Dennis Daley G (Out), Curtis Samuel WR (Questionable), Russell Okung T (Questionable).
Packers: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog. Find more NFL betting trends for Panthers vs. Packers.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Panthers had a full week to worry about COVID as they were forced to shut their practice facility down for two days. It may have been a big reason for Week 14’s loss to the league’s worst offense in the Denver Broncos. This Carolina defense allowed 6.3 yards per play to Drew Lock & Co. (their season average is 5.1).
Carolina gave up 32 points last week despite Denver only making two trips into the red zone. This week, the Panthers have to worry about the hottest offense in football that’s averaging 4.7 touchdowns per game since Week 12.
The Packers are 4-2 ATS at home this year but have played some poor opponents: DET, ATL, MIN, JAX, CHI and PHI. Other than Jacksonville, the Panthers are not better than any of those teams, but have been one of the better underdog teams in the league.
Matt Rhule’s club is 7-3 ATS as an underdog this year, as Teddy Bridgewater and the passing game are built for the backdoor. The Panthers should get WR D.J. Moore back this week after the 77-yards-per-game receiver missed last week’s loss.
We aren’t thinking of the Carolina moneyline, but feel this passing attack can keep strides with one of the best offenses in Green Bay, making -8.5 too much chalk to eat.
PREDICTION: Carolina +8.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Despite the success of the Green Bay offense, it’s been the Panthers that have been the better Over team over the last five games. Carolina is 4-1 O/U in its last five.
Last week, the Packers and Lions had the highest total on the board at 56, a game that finished with 55 total points. The Carolina offense sits next to Detroit in points per game and is eight spots higher in yards per play. This Carolina offense is legit and is surrounded with big-play players, especially at receiver.
The Packers might only be 2-2 O/U in their last four games, but this team has scored 102 points over its last three. Those three games also included two Top-15 DVOA defenses in PHI and CHI.
Nobody can stop Rodgers right now and he is about to face a defense that let Drew Lock throw for four TDs in Week 14. We love this Over more than any other total on the board this week.
PREDICTION: Over 51.5 (-110)
Total Touchdowns Prop Pick
You don’t score 30-plus points in 10 of your 13 games without getting TDs. On the year, Green Bay paces the league with four TDs scored per game, but over their last three weeks, that number jumps to 4.7. The Davante Adams and Rodgers connection has scored 12 TDs since Week 6 alone.
The cheeseheads have not left many points on the table either as they scored a touchdown in all three of their red-zone trips last week. They're also converting TDs at a 77 percent rate when getting in the red zone this season.
Both defenses have also bent and broke when inside their own 20, as both teams are allowing TDs on over 75 percent of red-zone trips since Week 12.
PREDICTION: Over 5.5 total touchdowns (-115)
Panthers vs Packers Betting Card
- Carolina +8.5 (-110)
- Over 51.5 (-110)
- Over 5.5 total touchdowns (-115)
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