The Carolina Panthers (3-7) have been somewhat feisty even after a 1-5 start, having gone 2-2 now in their last four games. That includes a 21-3 beatdown of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers as well as their 25-15 Thursday night triumph last week. But with that win came the untimely injury to PJ Walker, and Baker Mayfield will re-enter the fold as the starting quarterback this week.
He will be tasked with bringing home the Panthers' first road win against the Baltimore Ravens (6-3), who come into Week 11 fresh off a bye and on a three-game winning streak. John Harbaugh has arguably been the league's best coach when it comes to capitalizing on rest and preparation advantages, and he has a chance to prove that again this week.
Will Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson come out of their bye swinging for the fences? Find out in our NFL picks and predictions for Panthers vs. Ravens on Sunday, November 20.
Panthers vs Ravens best odds
Panthers vs Ravens picks and predictions
Coming out of their Week 10 bye, the Ravens sit at 6-3, atop of the AFC North and in control of the four-seed while also carrying a three-game win streak. Yet despite the favorable position they find themselves in currently, they actually may be even better than most suspect.
Their three losses this season have come against the Dolphins, Bills, and Giants. Those teams have a combined 20-8 record to date and the Ravens managed to lose those three games by a combined 11 points.
They rank third in overall DVOA and third in offensive DVOA, and although their defense is easily their weak spot, it ranks only as bad as 12th in DVOA. Former MVP Lamar Jackson arguably deserves more shine for his play, anchoring an offense that ranks ninth in yards per drive and fourth in points per drive.
He is also doing this with arguably the least productive wide receiver room in the league. The Ravens have just one receiver with more than 20 receptions or 30 targets (Devin Duvernay). Now, obviously, tight end Mark Andrews (42 receptions, 488 yards, and 5 TDs) is one of the best at his position, but it doesn't entirely make up for the void at the wide receiver spot.
But in a way, that void almost plays into the Ravens' favor on Sunday. Second-year Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn is one of the league's best, ranking top of the league in both snaps per target and snaps per reception allowed and it isn't close whatsoever (min 250 coverage snaps).
| Snaps/TGT | Snaps/REC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaycee Horn | 10.8 | Jaycee Horn | 21.6 |
| Eric Stokes | 9.5 | Sauce Gardner | 17.4 |
| Patrick Peterson | 9.4 | Patrick Peterson | 17.0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 8.9 | Jamel Dean | 16.2 |
| Steven Nelson | 8.3 | Darius Slay | 15.3 |
| Jamel Dean | 8.2 | Chidobe Awuzie | 15.2 |
| Tariq Woolen | 8.2 | DJ Reed Jr | 14.9 |
| Cameron Sutton | 8.1 | Steven Nelson | 14.8 |
| Roger McReary | 8.1 | James Bradberry | 14.6 |
| Patrick Surtain II | 8.0 | Patrick Surtain II | 14.4 |
In snaps per target, the gap between Horn and the second-best mark is the same gap between the second-best mark and sixth-best. For snaps per reception, the gap between Horn and the second-best is the same gap between the second-best and the thirteenth-best. Read that last part again. Thirteenth.
But with no productive wide receiver for Horn to cover, his talents are almost being wasted. In past weeks, he could be used to cover the likes of Drake London, Tee Higgins, Mike Evans, and Cooper Kupp. This week, he will have to chase after Devin Duvernay and James Proche.
The Panthers are also (as noted previously) horrendous on the road, and it's largely been the defense's fault. To illustrate: at home, they've allowed 121 points and on the road, they've allowed 122 points. They've played two more games at home than on the road. For fans of averages, that works out to 20.5 points allowed at home compared to 30.5 on the road.
My best bet: Ravens -13 (-107 at PointsBet)
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Panthers vs Ravens spread analysis
The Ravens opened as -13 favorites and have held strong at that number all week despite the seemingly lofty number.
Baltimore is 4-4-1 against the spread this year but has yet to cover at home (0-3-1).
Carolina is 4-6 against the spread and on top of being winless straight up on the road, is also a dismal 1-3 against the spread. As road underdogs, the Panthers are 1-2.
Panthers vs Ravens Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 44 and is now a full field goal down to 41 at most shops.
The Ravens are 6-3 to the Under and have gone 5-1 that way in their last six.
The Panthers are 6-4 to the Under, but given their aforementioned defensive struggles when on the road, they have split totals on the road while going 4-2 to the Under at home.
The game will feature winds projected to blow upwards to 17 mph, and is worth monitoring closer to gametime to gauge the impact it could have.
Panthers vs Ravens betting trend to know
The Panthers have yet to win on the road this year and are also 1-3 against the spread in that same split. Find more NFL betting trends for Panthers vs. Ravens.
Panthers vs Ravens game info
| Location: | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Sunday, November 20, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Ravens -12.5, 45 O/U |
Panthers vs Ravens latest injuries
Panthers vs Ravens weather
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