The NFL schedule kicks the Carolina Panthers while they’re down, sending them to the Big Easy for a Week 14 odds clash with division rivals, New Orleans Saints.
This divisional matchup will be Carolina’s third straight road game and its fourth road stop in the past five contests, which puts the 1-11 Panthers behind the eight ball before they even take the field.
New Orleans has its own problems, with quarterback Derek Carr running the risk of missing this game due to his second concussion in a month as well as a hip injury. That has backup Jameis Winston on track to start in Week 14, which could actually be an upgrade for this NOLA offense.
I run down the NFL odds for this NFC South showdown and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Panthers at Saints on December 10.
Panthers vs Saints odds
Panthers vs Saints predictions
Normally, a team with a record as bad as the Carolina Panthers would be in full tank mode for the home stretch of the season.
However, with the Panthers’ 2024 draft pick belonging to the Chicago Bears and the coaching staff essentially singing for their supper over the next five games, Carolina’s motivations are mixed.
The New Orleans Saints are equally puzzling, especially with the downfall of this once-stingy defense.
New Orleans ranked Top 5 in EPA allowed per play in the opening six weeks of action but have since slid to 23rd in that advanced metric, allowing an average of 26.5 points over their previous six outings. An injury to shutdown corner Marshon Lattimore has compounded those problems.
The Panthers don’t pose much of a threat offensively but did score 18 points in a loss at Tampa Bay on Sunday. That was their highest production since scoring 21 points against Miami back in Week 6.
Offensive coordinator Thomas Brown went run-heavy with his play calling, picking up 133 yards rushing on 34 carries against a Bucs defense that sits among the best at stuffing the rush.
While the Panthers only gained 3.9 yards per attempt, they ran a methodical pace and chewed up almost 34 minutes of possession. Running back Chuba Hubbard had 104 yards on 25 attempts along with two touchdowns. He’s given this offense its brightest spot since… well, all season.
New Orleans isn’t as stout at stopping the run game and has allowed 4.8 yards per carry to its last three foes, including 142 yards rushing to Detroit in Week 13. To make matters worse, the Saints lost interior lineman and top run-stopper Malcolm Roach to a season-ending injury last weekend.
If the Panthers can pick up gains on the ground and play a paced attack, that will limit the amount of touches NOLA gets with the football and could lead QB Jameis Winston to press – which is never a good result.
While Winston brings a bigger arm to the table than Carr, he’s a high-risk, high-reward QB. He’s completed just over 53% of his passes with two touchdowns and three interceptions on 47 attempts.
Carolina’s defense is not great, but it is the strong suit of this club and the stop unit recently got a shot in the arm with the return of some injured starters. The Panthers gave up 21 points to Tampa Bay (covering the spread for just the second time this season) and limited Tennessee to only 17 points in Week 12.
It’s possible New Orleans doesn’t get the chance to score enough points to cover this sizable spread and while Carolina is being priced like a team on the tank, it certainly won’t be playing like it.
My best bet: Carolina +6 (-117 at Pinnacle)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Panthers vs Saints same-game parlay
Chuba Hubbard Over 13.5 rush attempts
Chuba Hubbard Over 56.5 rushing yards
Alvin Kamara anytime TD
Hubbard is getting the lion’s share of touches with Thomas Brown calling a run-heavy playbook.
Hubbard had 100+ vs. the Bucs and now faces a much softer Saints run stop, with projections calling for 60 or more yards on the ground.
Given the QB questions for the Saints, Kamara is going to get a lot of touches on the ground and through the air. Carolina has allowed a league-high 20 touchdowns to running backs.
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Panthers vs Saints spread and Over/Under analysis
The look-ahead line for this game was Saints -6.5 but with the loss to Detroit and Derek Carr dealing with another concussion the market consensus on Tuesday is NOLA -5.5, with a handful of books dealing a discounted -6.
Covers Consensus shows 64% of early picks siding with New Orleans, despite a possible switch to the always-volatile Jameis Winston under center. But that’s what happens when you’re facing a team with just one win on the season.
Carolina is bringing up the rear but has kept things close in three of its last four games, losing by margins of just three, seven, and three (as well as getting dumped 33-10 by Dallas in Week 11).
The Panthers are still working out the pecking order on the sideline since the firing of head coach Frank Reich. Offensive coordinator Thomas Browns is calling plays once again while interim head coach Chris Tabor remains hands-off in terms of calling plays.
Carolina is coming off an 18-point effort, which was its highest-scoring game since putting up 21 points in Week 6. Those offensive shortcomings have helped pump out a 4-8 Over/Under record for the Panthers.
New Orleans was once a blind Under bet but its defensive stumbles have ticked final scores over the closing number in four of the last six showings after starting 2023 with a perfect 6-0 mark for the Under.
This Week 14 total opened at 38 points and has slimmed half a point to 37.5 with Cover Consensus showing 59% of early picks on the Under.
These NFC South rivals played each other back in Week 2, with New Orleans edging Carolina 20-17 and pushing as 3-point road favorites while going below the closing total of 40 points. That was the sixth straight meeting between these clubs that played Under, going back to January 2021.
Panthers vs Saints betting trend to know
New Orleans is 3-12-1 ATS (8-8 SU) as a point spread favorite under head coach Dennis Allen. Find more NFL betting trends for Panthers vs. Saints.
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Panthers vs Saints game info
| Location: | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Sunday, December 10, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NFL Network |
| Opening odds: | Saints -6, 38 |
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